From the plot looks like a co-lead, but I guess studio could push Bale supporting (can't see Crowe anything but lead).

The Yuma/Gangster combo for Crowe should help him get a potential nom in either one. Both films are kinda tricky with the co-leads though.

Trades are more mixed.

Variety likey it. Hollywood Reporter not so much.

Levy just gave it a rave (A), hopefully HR review ends up being the minority opinion.

Apparantley that Sleuth remake(1972 Caine film with only two actors for entire running time, this time it's Caine again in the other role and Jude Law), got a 5 minute standing ovation and a rave review was sent to aicn

I can't see headway in BP or BD for it, but a supporting actor nod and screenplay or something wouldn't surprise me.

Hmm... I remember reading something very positive about it as well but totally forgot about it.

Could Jude Law break into the race?

Maybe. I would love Caine to get another nod. Are they both supporting? Caine needs to win a lead Oscar sometime in his career, methinks.

More likely both lead if I had to guess, though there's been category decisions that haven't made sense in the past... I think they'd have a better chance in supporting.

It seems to me like this is going to divide the critics: Some will go onboard with it's beautiful cinematography and novel-like structure, and others will reject it as being pretensious and overlong. For that reason along I can't see it getting anything outside of techs at the Oscars, but that's still a hell of a lot more than what I expected for a film shot two years ago that's been plagued with all levels of bad buzz and multiple re-cuts.

If Michael Caine got an Oscar nomination for Sleuth, would that make him the first actor in history to get a nomination for both the original film and a subsequent remake?

I totally forgot about Paul Haggis having another movie this year. Theron, Sarandon, Jones is a pretty good cast too. And Wells and EW have already raved. (Wells review: http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/arch ... lley_o.php)

I don't think many actors have returned for major roles in remakes, period, so he probably would be.

And In the Valley of Elah confuses and scares me. Paul Haggis obviously has a fanbase, but is it enough to get past the hate that has sprung up against him as of late AND the Post-Oscar slump? So annoying.

Well it got screened tonight, so we should get some idea tomorrow on it. Wells review was more estatic than I would've liked, even going as far to say it'll erase all angers Haggis haters had after Crash, and that he was sure it'll score with Oscar. It scared me, enough to put it right up there with potential big dogs for this season.

I just can't stand the idea of a movie with this poster hanging around in Oscar season. I never want to see that hideous thing again.

Oh, looks like reviews are already in...

HR (positive): http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/fil ... ?&rid=9700

Variety (slightly negative, though biggest tripe is "too serious"): http://www.variety.com/VE1117934532.html

Looks like Venice stuff is all the net now actually, I'll make a thread in Foreign + Independant because you know, that forum needs it badly.

I'm pleasantly surprised by all the positive reviews!! I thought many of these films had high potential to be flat out disasters.

Also Margot at the Wedding premiered at the Telluride Film Festival today. EArly word is good!! Here's one review from HR.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/fil ... &&rid=9712

Some excerpts from the review:

"Noah Baumbach has followed up his acclaimed 2005 breakthrough "The Squid and the Whale" with another wryly observed, giddily cringe-inducing, bracingly original winner."

"Brilliantly assisting him in bringing it all to the forefront are Kidman and, especially Leigh, who render brittle, hilarious yet moving performances.

Kidman's never better than when she plays darker types, like in "To Die For" or "The Others," and in Margot she has found a character that gives her permission to let unapologetically loose while still retaining some of that trademark vulnerability.

Leigh, meanwhile, gives one of the best, and certainly most intriguingly complex performances of her career, as Pauline, a perennially lost soul who, despite all the friction still idealizes her sister as a potential best friend.

Together, the two egg each other on to delicious heights, and the rest of the cast gives them the appropriate space while still turning in their own, astute performances."

Travers also said a couple weeks ago in RS that it was Nicole's best performance in years

http://forums.awardsdaily.com/showthread.php?t=3534

Another Lust, Caution review





http://european-films.net/content/view/838/118/

And a british report on Venice so far









http://www.telegraph.co.uk/arts/main.jh ... ce-131.xml

Except for Variety, Lust, Caution has gathered pretty good reviews from Venice overall. Nice to hear all the good words on Wei Tang. The score and cinematography look strong as expected.

ROTTEN TOMATOES CHANGES THINGS UP A BIT

here's all of the not-yet-released Oscar contenders that have any reviews in on RT, and how they're performing.

four exceptional reviews in for David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises" 100%
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/eastern_promises/?show=all

three quite good reviews in for Jodie Foster's "The Brave One" 100%
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/brave_one/?show=all

FOUR REVIEWS IN FOR "IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH." 25% POSITIVE
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/in_the_valley_of_elah/?show=all
consider its Oscar chances over. although the one positive review is very positive.

one very positive review in for "Across the Universe" 100%
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/across_the_universe/?show=all

five reviews in for "The Assassination of Jesse James." 80% positive
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/10005911-assassination_of_jesse_james_by_the_coward_robert_ford/?show=all
the positive reviews are very positive.

five reviews in for "Into the Wild." 80% positive
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/into_the_wild/?show=all

two reviews in for Ang Lee's "Lust, Caution" 50% positive
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/lust_caution/?show=all

five reviews in for Peter Berg's "The Kingdom" 100% positive
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_kingdom/?show=all

four reviews in for Wes Anderon's "The Darjeeling Limited" 25% positive
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/darjeeling_limited/?show=all

seven reviews in for "Grace is Gone" 71% positive
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/grace_is_gone/

fsix reviews in for "Michael Clayton" 67% positive
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/michael_clayton/?show=all

five reviews in for "We Own the Night" 40% positive
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/we_own_the_night/

four reviews in for "Sleuth" 50% positive
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/10008532-sleuth/?show=all
the two rottens are mediocre, and one positive is a total rave

[i]nine reviews in for "No Country for Old Men" 89% positive
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/no_country_for_old_men/

three reviews in for "I'm Not There" 33% positive
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/im_not_there_suppositions_on_a_film_concerning_dylan/?show=all
ugh

three reviews in for "Atonement" 100% positive
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/10007397-atonement/?show=all
All three reviews are extremely positive, but none give it a perfect grade.

eight reviews in for "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" 63% positive
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/diving_bell_and_the_butterfly/

on a side note, I read a review on IMDb for Rob Reiner's The Bucket List that said it deserves serious Oscar consideration.



After that deep analysis, I think it's safe to say that "In the Valley of Elah" is out of the race...in any major category. It's also safe to say that "Michael Clayton" will probably not reach the level of Best Picture nominee unless reviews really pick up. Films we weren't considering seriously earlier that we should now consider are "Eastern Promises," "The Kingdom," and possibly "The Assassination of Jesse James."

Revised Predictions:

Predicted Noms:
1. Atonement
2. No Country for Old Men
3. Charlie Wilson's War
4. Gone Baby Gone
5. American Gangster

Nearby:
6. Eastern Promises
7. Elizabeth: The Golden Age
8. Reservation Road
9. Lions for Lambs
10. There Will Be Blood

In Contention:
11. 3:10 to Yuma
12. The Kingdom
13. Michael Clayton
14. The Bucket List
15. The Brave One

Dark Horse:
16. Sweeney Todd
17. Margot at the Wedding
18. Knocked Up
19. Love in the Time of Cholera
20. Ratatouille (one can always hope)

Shall we start "Contenders III: Revenge of the Mav (just kidding)" then?

I'm not going to count In the Valley of Elah out yet. It received a rave from EW and positive words from THR, and the general grades from Venice seem fine. Still a contender.

Eastern Promises, however, is now a major contender. 5 reviews at RT and a 9.2 average. The director race is going to be brutal this year with numerous films looking stronger on BD than BP.

I remember on engin's site A History of Violence ended up in the Top 3, I think of thefilms with most appearances in Top 10 lists, but that still didn't help it at the Oscars. It would have to gross at least as much as AHOV if not more to be considered in any way for Picture/Director.

A couple of reviews on Charlie Wilson's War from early screening have popped up at AICN and IMDb board, not exactly credible sources, but they are raves.

I really really don't trust AICN. In the slightest.

I know I'm making way too many early calls but I feel as confident about Eastern Promises as I do Atonement right now. I think director/actor nominations are a sure thing. Both overdue and I can't really see them being snubbed yet again.

Hmm, looks to me like this year will be one of the more crowded. I'm so excited!

There's 'bound to be one or two big "failures" (like All the King's Men or Memoirs of a Geisha). I'd guess Lions for Lambs might be one of them.