You might disregard it, but the critics awards still count for something. And Dreamgirls was nowhere near in sight. Plus: It is a no show at BAFTA

Like how many people here actually SAW Letters?

The DGA just made the Globes look kinda stupid. 2 noms for Eastwood at the Globes, 0 for Eastwood at the DGA.

And Martin Scorsese has officially secured his Best Director win. With the snub of Eastwood, and the weak competition, it's all his.

Peace,
Mike.

Little Miss Sunshine is unprecedented everywhere, I'm still flabbergasted that it's actually going to be nominated.

I seriously can't think of a nominee that's like Little Miss Sunshine at all, I can understand heavy comedies like Sideways and LiT, but when was the last time they ever nominated something so happy and light and purely comedic? Babe is the closest I know of, though I wouldn't really call that as much of a comedy as a family film... it dates back decades. Pure comedy is as rare as sci-fi.

Little Miss Sunshine really wasn't any lighter than As Good As It Gets, which won Best Actor and Best Actress in addition to a Best Picture nomination. Despite being a comedy through in through, it does have *some* dark themes.

Oh I've never seen As Good As it Gets, I was assuming that was Sideways-esque.

See it! That's my all-time favorite movie!

But, yes, I would say LMS and As Good As It Gets are fairly similiar in terms of "tone" (as well as the fact Greg Kinnear is in both), although the subject matter is obviously different.

That also got a DGA nomination for James L. Brooks back in its day, although it missed out on a nomination for him at the Oscars (it was the one movie of the five that didn't get a Director nomination).

To tell the truth, my last comment was kind of false... I had completley forgotten about As Good As it Gets existing when I made that comment, my mind was saying Babe and Full Monty and Sideways were the closest comparisons. Though I was up until this point under the impression that it was a romantic drama over a light comedy.

My video store doesn't have it by the way.. I might blind buy next time I go to the city.

I think the issue is what do these noms mean for the Oscars..they mean Little Miss Sunshine, Departed, Dreamgirls, Babel and the Queen...that's pretty boring. I mean, no United 93, Children of Men, Eastwood's wars, etc...but did any of those ever have any real chance? Dunno...yknow.

I think Shack was trying to make the point that comedy isn't an easy sell for the Academy Awards. It usually takes a special kind of comedy to get recognized.

As Good as It Gets is, well... the title says it all.

Holy cow. No Eastwood. (I just saw the noms for the first time).

This is pretty big.

This is it. This are the best picture nominees. Letters from Iwo Jima came out still too late probably and still small. It didn't have enough reach and maybe some voters really were a bit tired of having Eastwood on every year or so.

I am STUNNED at the guilds' LMS support. It's a lock for a nomination at this point. So is Babel. I'd even go so far as to say the only one of those five that might be vilnerable now is Dreamgirls.

Well. I guess that statement was a bit subjective because I personally thought it was the weakest of the 5 movies listed.

LMS was looking at possibly only nabbing a single o couple acting nominations even if that. But it has showed up on all the major guilds nominations which shows wide support among voters (alot fo whom overlap into the Academy). Plus, it's a comedy that has a bit of weight to it. It stands out from the others which are all uber-serious or dark films.

Babel has shown tremendous support from just about EVERWHERE. I would say Babel takes the 5th slot but it really has emerged as a true contender now rather than just a mere toss-in nominee.

The Departed. I don't even know if I need to explain this. It's a done deal.

Alot fo people might have The Queen as the 5th slot now since it has lost considerable steam and hasn't been the 'it' movie for a while. But I think earning a director's nod still shows quite a bit of support. Plus, it's aimed at the older-skewing Academy voters. It's classic Academy stuff.

I honestly wanna say that all Dreamgirls has going for it is the immense marketing campaign. The've build it up so much that by the time of its release, you'd be hard pressed to find an Oscar article not mentioning Dreamgirls. They have done very well to imprint that name into the minds of the voters. Too bad the movie doesn't live up to it. And in the end, I think the quality (or lack of it) plus the voting style might make this the weakest contender.

People get bored easely, that's all.

So: The Departed, Babel, The Queen, Dreamgirls and LMS for the BP Oscar? With Eastwood being the director with no BP nom for Letters... yeah, that makes sense




And I've always said that Babel was a true contender months before seeing it, so go me

I thought it was a contender before seeing it as well... but then I saw it...

Hmmm... I've been less confident about its chances before the guilds, the top 10 mentions and the GG noms, i.e., I thought the BP nomination would be the reward for the whole trilogy he made... now I feel it might turn out to be a serious threat for The Departed/Dreamgirls combo. The Queen? A lock for the nomination, but it might get less votes than Little Miss Sunshine in the end!


Imagine if it wins the GG. It's completely possible at this point. I know that would be your worst nightmare, eheh, but then it has to be considered a threat for the win

I hate to say it but Babel is 3rd in contention behind Departed and Dreamgirls, and if Condon misses it'll be 2nd.

The Queen can win. It's just a feeling (plus my own bias ), but it's a film that has the least number of detractors, and it has some pretty strong supporters. Getting GG director nom, something Capote didn't, is a good sign. Yes, it missed SAG Ensemble, but it missed to Bobby, a film we know would get bunch of support from guild actors, instead of another contender, so I don't think it has shown much devastating weakness. If it wins GG, not an unlikely scenario, then watch out.

In a sense, The Queen is being underestimated just as Babel has been, but at least the arguments against Babel (reviews and box office) are pretty valid, while The Queen is being underestimated despite the splendid reviews and having a good box office run, much better than Capote and Good Night, and Good Luck.

At this point, I'm not sure who is going to win. The Departed, I hope.... Babel isn't. I don't want it to. It doesn't deserve it.

A Dreamgirls win would be one of the worst in the history of Academy Awards.

After seeing it, I just don't understand how it could possibly win.

I'd go so far as to say Babel is 2nd in line to win at this point.

I just have to say this:

If Scorcese doesn't win this year, then something is seriously wrong. It is his highest grossing film,it is certainly not his best, but of the films that will more than likely be nominated this year, it is far and away the best and it is the best job by a director. I'm thrilled to see LMS get recognized and disgusted to see Babel in the same breath.

I would take my measly one year's salary and offer it to entire Academy not to vote for Babel in any category this year.

You know, my expectations for Babel were LOW before walking into it tonight. The onslaught of opposition to the film even had me (I'll admit it) sort of rooting against it.

But I loved Babel, and I'm making no apologies for it.

NONE!

One of the worst... for the record, I agree. So... there's two!

But I'm not going to go as far to say it's second in line.

I expected there to be a sort of backlash after everybody got around to seeing Dreamgirls and realized it was a little mediocre. But that never happened.

So Raffiki, looks like it's you and me this Oscar season, all the way, man.

I still see nothing at all in The Departed's way to its win. Let's not forget that in Chicago's yar there was no "worthy" competitor anyway. Rumor has it that The Pianist lost BP to it just by a couple of votes (read it back then after the ceremony) and that movie didn't even top $30 million, I think. Had The Depated been out that year, it'd have beaten Chicago without any doubt.

"One of us! One of us!"


someone that really loved it here (other than Zach, makeshift and me), at last

After finally watching it I can understand.