We're underestimating Night at the Museum II.

The original was well-liked, sold a huge number of DVDs (over 9 million units, possibly 10 million at this point), and there's no direct competition for it opening weekend (T4 won't dent it; Hannah Montana isn't going to be huge if HSM3 wasn't, Up is the following weekend). I see no reason why it can't pull $200m, now that I think about it. The different release date (Christmas vs. summer) isn't really going to hurt it that much - it's not like it's a Christmas-themed film like Narnia is.

So yes, I could see Wolverine (just barely, it won't top X3; and more likely it'll end up in the $180-200m range, but we'll see), Night at the Museum II and T4 all making $200m+ each. And potentially seven films released in May could make $100m+ (the ones named already, plus Angels & Demons, Bruno, Hannah Montana and Star Trek), but more like 5-6 with the rest coming close.

Night at the museum will probably move to June as Fox isnt entirely incompetant with release dates like Paramount can be.

That said, if N@M2 opens against T4, it will get crushed. It is probably the least famous megahit around, and just screams prince caspian 2.0. (btw, prince caspian wasnt "winter" themed either, but the original was, and so was the 1st "n@m) i coudl see 45-50 over the 4 day and 145-150 total, but anything near 200? Fuck no.

Maybe not "winter-themed", but Narnia being released around Christmas does help, ya know (considering all the Christian themes in it). Not enough for the $140m difference in grosses, but it helped.

I think Museum II could make $200m (not much more, though).

Ones a family movie while the other aims at young adults and nostalgic men

and one will completely dwarf out the other in terms of buzz and attention. the only war night at museum breaks 50 for the 4 day is if t4 is rated r.

These moves will help Transformers, which was already going to be huge but now could be even bigger.

Its a shame that the first half of the summer is so weak because the period between Transformers and Potter is very strong. Films like Prince of Persia, Avatar, Monsters vs Aliens, FF4 and A-Team moving out of the summer really hurt it.

I think we have to be prepared for 2009 to be a transition year thanks to the writers strike and box office numbers will be down substantially.

New Moon- November 20, 2009

http://hollywoodinsider.ew.com/2008/12/twilight-sequel.html

Yeah it needs the likes of Watchmen, Monsters vs Aliens, Duplicity and Witch Mountain to break out. Jan/Feb are ok but nothing special. March is where the gains are to be made.

I question why the studios would have twieen girl phenoms Hannah Montana and Zac Effron (17 Again) one week apart in April..

Efron > Montana.
I heard that HM is becoming unpopular so that could actually tank.
Well its budget being virtually nothing that would be impossible, but disappoint then.
Really, BV are becoming more and more pathetic. Pixar saves their ass all the time.
Kind of like how Dreamworks saves Paramount, I mean either than the CGI, they had Transformers, etc.
Films don't actually see a drop-off that big after Memorial Weekend right? Shouldn't Up have moved to Memorial? I mean, before NATM2 went there. Scared of T4?
I guess it worked for Cars and July4th is a no-go with the huge combination of TF, 2012, Potter and IA3.

Wait, Hannah Montana is opening in April now? How'd I miss that.

That's an even better situation for Museum II, then. There's no major kids flicks between Hannah Montana on April 10 and Museum II on freakin' May 22. Seriously? I'm actually gonna say $65m four-day and $190-210m total.

Transformers 2 is going to be in a very similar position to the one pirates 2 was in 3 summers ago. Its only prob. is marketing has been horrible thus far. It has outside shots at every tdk record it took opening week, but the 4-17 day records tdk took should be fine.

What marketing?

Yeah. There hasn't been any so how could it possibly be horrible since it doesn't need marketing this early

i have no doubt the marketing will good next summer, but to achieve real megabuzz by opening weekend, it has to start MONTHS in advance.

most summer blockbusters have trailers out for the holidays, but for some reason 2009 is breaking the trend.

Trust me, from the SB until the day it's released, Transformers will EASILY be the most marketed film. I mean... Do you realize how many tv spots we're gonna get with Megan Fox and her hotness?!?!

It's going to be insane.

at the moment, terminator 4 has far and away the best marketing of all the summer films.

You just wait.

Too bad you won't be here for the record breaking weekend TF2 will have

ill make time to stop in for major news

^Where you going?

And the summer's 09 movies have had terrible marketing as of.
Watchmen is probably the best but it's in March.
Transformers has been very quiet.
Ice Age 3 and Terminator are picking up.
Harry Potter and Up are so-so, not that either needs much.
2012, Star Trek, Wolverine, GI Joe, NATM2, Bruno ??? Almost nothing.
Makes you wonder.

One of the summer 09 films like 2012 and Public Enemies should sneak in and steal the publicity on offer this December. Could mean alot long term. Tf2 will be fine with a superbowl spot. Likewise with Wolverine.

But I agree Tf2 will be HUGE - $400m is likely. I also think Watchmen is going to benefit from a weak Jan/Feb.

Exel - where are you going?

ill be starting a different job. the only time ill have to use the internet will be at night whenever i get home where I imagine Ill have other thinsg to. Its no dramatic "im leaving", but my days a regular posting several times a day will be over.

http://www.bloody-disgusting.com/news/14652

WB/New Line has retitled Final Destination 4. The new title is Final Destination: Death Trip 3D. The film is still set for an August 21, 2009 release date. Don't know if I like that or not but the movie should be a lot of fun with the 3D. Two images are at the link above.

This is the only 3d horror movie I am interested in. But frankly speaking I am more interested in District 9 that comes out in August as well.