Wow alot of films have been given release dates!

Here are the early slates for the next few years.

2010

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Alice in Wonderland
Alvin and the Chipmunks 2
How to Train your Dragon
Iron Man 2
Shrek Goes Fourth
Prince of Persia
Toy Story 3
Green Hornet
The Lone Ranger
The Green Lantern
The Last Airbender
Thor
Beverly Hills Cop 4
Sherlock Holmes
Mastermind
Harry Potter 7

2011

The First Avenger: Captain America
Pirates of the Carribean 4
Harry Potter 8
Spiderman 4
Cars 2
The Avengers
The Bear and the Bow
The Hobbit

2012

newt
The Hobbit Sequel/LOTR Prequel
King of the Elves


2012 is still very empty and perfect for TDK to rule. Though I'd like to see TDK in December 2010 or else I doubt WB will settle for June 2011 which is empty.

htats true, if its batman vs avengers, batman will outgross it 3 to 1.

As I have been saying since before even The Dark Knight came out....I really doubt we'll see another Batman film before 2012.

I'm sure Nolan will probably wanna make another film before that like he did with The Prestige and whatever that film is, it's not even announced. Bale's pretty busy too. Hell, I think it's even more likely that Bale will make another Terminator film before he makes another Batman. After TDK's success, I don't think they'll wanna rush it. Nolan certainly won't want to rush it. He knows what happens to Spider-Man 3...

I was just thinking about how desireable release dates have shifted over the last decade.

First in the mid 1990s the summer kickoff began shifting from the weekend before Memorial Day gradually to the first weekend in May (even to the last weekend in April twice but failed both times). The first weekend of May would soon become the most lusted after release date of the year.

Meanwhile, Hollywood was accustomed to release its biggies in mid/late June - Jurassic Park, Batman films, Lion King but with the the success of ID4 and MIB - they started to look more to July 4th weekend and eventually beyond with the success of Pirates and now mid July seems to be the release date of choice thanks to TDK.

Also in the past decade - Thanksgiving was the time to launch your holiday films - but now the 1st weekend of November is all the rage (thanks to Interview in 1994). The weekend before Thanksgiving remains popular but Thanksgiving itself has proven to be more of a dumping ground as films released that weekend tend to have weak legs.

And then there is December. It was all about Christmas Day but Titanic would change all that and LOTR would only confirm it. The two weekends before Christmas became the most lucrative while Christmas day became more of a dumping ground with the hope of one or two or even three films finding traction (which they often do). This year should test Christmas more than ever because a few high profile films have a real chance of success.

Ok back to work!

Time to realize soon that almost every sinlge weekend of the year is a good time to release certain kinds of films given good marketing.

Packing 40 new releases in September/October is just as foolish as leaving January-February absolutely devoid of "big films".

I mean 10,000 B.C. did $95 million really mostly thanks to its March release and the fact that it was the only effects-laden big blockbuster out there, giving it a must-see factor. It really would have never ever reached that number with a release in the packed summer! It would have topped out with $70 million at most.

Kung Fu Panda 2- June 3, 2011

http://www.iesb.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5560&Itemid=99

The film will be a big success most likely.

My goodness, Summer 2011 might be getting too crowded with big films now. But Kung Fu Panda 2 should do well over 200M, don't see why it wouldn't. I'd go with something like 70/260 right now.

Hello, Summer 2007.

Captain America
Spider-Man 4 (possible)
Narnia 3 (should move though, if it doesnt and all these films and more are indeed release in summer 2011, it's just going to...die.)
Pirates 4
Pixar (Cars 2 maybe, or Newt?)
Kung Fu Panda 2
The Avengers
Harry Potter 8
Transformers 3 (you know it's happening unless T2 really disappoints, but..yeah.)



Anything else announced or likely?

Since Transformers 2 seems like a sure bet for $450 million or more, who knows how high part 3 could go.

When hell freezes over maybe.

In all seriousness, if it does that much I will have lost a lot of respect for the filmgoing community.

The first one made $319,246,193. That's not too big of an increase, especially considering how well-liked the original was and how incredibly well it has sold on DVD/Blu-Ray/HD-DVD (#1 seller on the latter two formats).

Pirates 4 will flop. hopefully less than 200m. pity it will make a whole bunch internationally.

I doubt Pirates 4 will flop Johnny Depp just being in that movie will get all the girls to flock to it.

Pirates 4 should do well. There's a big enough gap between the last installment and this one so that anticipation will definitely exist. I know I'm pumped

I dunno. I think it's a tie at best.

I mean Spider-Man 3 was CLEARLY hurt by two more $300+ million grossers released in the same month. Hsd Spider-Man 3 been released this May and Iron Man last May, then Iron Man probably would have fallen below $300 million and Spider-Man 3 would have made $350+ million.

Also, The Dark Knight would have been a huge grosser with any release date in the summer and would have become #1 of the summer anyway. Iron Man has shown that for certain films the first weekend of May is still the prime release date. I mean with that date, I bet The Dark Knight would have made $170-175 million opening weekend!

I really doubt that. The first Pirates movie was much more beloved than Transformers, IMO. It was actually one of the most beloved films of this decade by moviegoers. It was HUUUGE on DVD as well. And even IF you apply the same increase for Transformers 2 over the first film as Pirates 2 increased over the first...even then, it's below $450 million.

More likely, however, is a smaller increase because Pirates was more beloved, IMO. I think about $415 million tops.

I pretty much agree with everything you said.

transfornmer 2 is going to top 400 million, wether it does 450 will depend on the word of mouth.



itll be lucky to get 250. That series is no longer elite, it isnt 2006 anymore.

Eh, maybe you are right, but there's no way to know for sure is there? Honestly, I doubt Spider-Man would have made $400+ million had it been released in July 2002.

TDK was a freak of nature, every biggie dissappointed in some way since Iron Man. There was a huge thirst for a real kickass film. The massive buzz surrounding TDK due to ledgers death leaked word of its amazing quality weeks in advance, and the buzz just blew up.

and the film had an incredibly marketing campaign.

Adds Kung Fu Panda 2 to the list :



http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/va/2008 ... 40200.html

That's going to be a mega huge year. I am looking forward to the Cars 2 vs Kung Fu Panda 2 showdown. More merchandise will come out of Cars 2, but I'll give win to Kung Fu Panda as a dark horse.

Yes KFP2 for 2011! It should do north of $250m and Cars 2 should be similar.

Just on May vs July - they are both very similar in the end - May gives you better weekends but July has the weekdays. The bonus May has is that you usually have less competition and you get a Memorial Day boost. Still I think the weekdays of July are just too strong to ignore and help a movie if its of good quality more so than in May. If a film is of low quality, May can help in that it has less competition overall and can survive longer.

2011 is Harry Potter 8's to lose imo.

Yeah 2011 is mega. At this stage it should be:

May Wk1 = Captain America
May Wk 2 =
May Wk3 = Harry Potter 8
May Memorial Wknd = Spiderman 4
June Wk1 = Kung Fu Panda 2
June Wk2
June Wk3
June Wk4 = Cars 2
July 4th Weekend =
July Wk 2 =
July Wk 3 = The Avengers

November = Bear and the Bow
December = The Hobbit

Still room for Batman and a few others to join the party!

Really? I thnk it should be good for $350m but doubt any more than that. Where as The Avengers should be that and if not The Hobbit certainly will. (And Batman if it comes out).