Well we just had the biggest weekend of all time. Up 4% from last year and probably 1% over 2004.

June looks very strong. Two mega films in Cars and Click and then a bevy of strong blocbuster contenders.

Its incredible when you actually think of what Memorial Weekend 07 could be like - the top 3 alone could make over $220m!!!!!

I really like where we are going into June, but I don't want to get too excited just yet.. If just a few films disappoint in June, it could still set us up for a lousy summer. Let's not forget how strong Summer 2005 started, only to fizzle in the end.

Thank-fully, the June line up this year looks a little better then last year.

To begin though, I can't stand that The Break Up is the only movie opening this weekend. Something else could have definatley opened and done decent business. Maybe a teen film or even a horror movie. How about an adult thriller?

Anyways, for this weekend we have just the Break up, and as long as the reviews aren't horrid, it should be able to approach 30 million. As long as X3 doesn't completely collapse, we should apprach last years numbers no problem.

I have a problem with only Cars and the Omen opening next weekend as well. I think there could have been another film opening. Maybe one targeted at female teens, a la sisterhood of the travelling pants... can someone please explain to me why there are 6 wide releases on the last weekend of August? I mean, Hilary Duff's Material Girls could have easily opened up here. Grrr!

But again, it is what it is, and at least Cars is all but guranteed a 60+ million opening, though it will more likely be around 70. I'm having a hard time believing it will pass Nemo, it just doesn't look quite as appealing.
The omen should do decent business, though it won't break out over the weekend thanks to a Tuesday open (yes, I get the reason why, but I really think they might be shooting themselves in the foot with that release. What regular movie goer is going to know a movie opens on a tuesday?)
Even so the weekend should match last year, when one of my favorite movies of last summer, Mr. and Mrs. Smith opened.

The weekend after that 4 movies are opening. Now we are talking!
This weekend has the potential of 4 movies opening to 20 million, but I think that one is bound to fall short, and most likely it will be the Lake House. However, with Keanu and Bullock, it might just make it.
Regardless, Nacho, Garfiled and Fast and Furious should all come in somewhere around the 20 million mark (yes, if the first one opened to 22 million, this one should be able to come close.)
Should be able to beat the weekend last year by about 10 million.

Another weekend, another missed opportunity. Click and something called waist deep opens. There certainly could have been a third film opening that doesn't take away from these two films.. seriously, why are all the movies tageted at young female teens opening in August?

Actually, let me go off on a little rant here.
I really think studios dropped the ball on scheduling this year.
I'm pretty confident that if MI3 has been a June or July release it would have done much better. Same goes for Posiedon.
The aformentioned Material Girls will get lost the last weekend of August as young teens will be busy getting ready to go back to school.

And is it really that smart to have the Ant Bully and Barnyard opening in consecutive weekends? Where is the logic there?

Talladega Nights. Why is it being dumped in August. This could have easily been a June or July release.

Superman Returns. I know some of you are going to go ballistic at me for saying this, but I don't think that the July 4th weekend is the proper release for this one. I just don't. I think that it should have opened mid June like Batman Returns.
Pirates should have been the July 4th release. It would have done gangbusters (not that is isn't going to anyways, but it just would have rocked that long weekend)

There are a couple of films that I think are in the right spot. World Trade Centre and Snakes on a plane are good for August, as well as X3 over the Memorial Day weekend and Cars at the beginning of June. But for the most part, I would have done the summer schedule very differently just based on earlier years...

Anyhow, I've exhausted myself now, so I won't talk about Superman Returns opening weekend now.. I'll save it for another time...

All in all though, I think we are on track to outdo last summer, so long as things don't bomb and go terribly wrong..

I agree with you Bryan, studios are complaining about falling BO when they are struggling to do simple scheduling.

Its unforgivable that only Break Up is getting released this weekend whil later weekends throughout the year (especially inthe weaker fall) will have 4 or 5 releases on the one weekend. Its pathetic. Click should also have a film counter programmed against it and so to should Superman (Prada is minor) incase it underperforms.

^ italked about a while ago. i called it a 5 year plan cause it goesin cycles. it goes dissapointment, reboud, mega year, recession, rebound, then dissapointment again. dissapointment is the smallest year with mega year being biggest.

1985,1990,1995,2000,2005=all dissapointes.
-1985-had a 16 week slump.
-1990-the year they forgot about summer, where medium hits like totla rcell n die hard 2 were the top films, glorified by a big bomb in dick tracy. it was partially saved by a huge holiday season with home alone, dances with wolves, n ghost
-1995-after 94' which saw 3 300 million films, 1995sbiggest hit was batman forever, with 180 million.
2000-in 1999, the summer champion was episode 1 with 430 million, in 2000, the champ was mi2 with less the half of that.
2005-we know all about.

1986,1991,1996,2001,2006=all rebouds
-1986-after the huge slump of 85, this year saw huge hits in top gun and platoon, with the top 5 all grossing 100 million.
1991-after the horrendous summer season of 1990, 1991 saw the return of the hype machine in t2 and robin hood.
1996-after 95's biggest film got 180, 1996 exploded with twister (240 million) id4(306 million) and mi (180 million)
2001-after a slow 2000,2001 was the most well rounded year ever. the summer invented the huge opening, and had blockbusters like mummy returns, shrek, n rush hour 2. then had biggest holiday ever, with monsters inc(252 million) lord of rings 1 (314) and pottr 1 (317 )
2006=rebounds already happening.

1987, 1992, 1997,2002,2007=all mega years
-1987-grosses a whopping 12% more then any other year EVER for its day.
-1992-one of the strongest year on record with inflation, it was the first year to have 10 100 million hits, with 8 over 120 million.
-1997-mega summer dominated by lost world and men in black,also huge holiday hits in titanic, as good a sit gets, and good will hunting. also one of the strongest years ever for quality.
-2002-had 5 240 million, n 7 over 200 million including a 400 million n 300 million dollar films.
-2007-look at it. spidey 3,shrek 3, pirates 3. itll be enormous n everyone knows it.

1988,1993,1998,2003=all recressions. years that didnt live up to potential.
-1988-aftera huge 1987, 88' inproved ticket sales, but had several high profile disdsapointments in rambo 3, scrogged, n cokctail.
-1993-1992 had 8 120 million hits, this year had only 5, and was totally dominated by and saved by jurassic park.
1998-97 saw a 600 million dollar hit, 98 saw almost all its big summer films flop, ncluding godzilla one of the biggest flops ever. armageddon flopped in its openimng but wom saved it.
2003-matrix reloaded, hulk, t3, matrix revultions all underpreformed immensily while chasrlies angels 2, sinbad just bombed outright. bruce almighty, pirates, and nemo blew past expectations though.


1989,1994,1999,2004=all rebound years.

I'm a "He"

Offcourse yes I agree. 2006 is doing very solidly and will see a slight uptick in both revenue and admissions but offcourse still well below 04 levels. However - it is 2007 that will be the mega BO year that will return things to the golden era of 2002-2004. However, for 2007 to work - the studios have to carefully tweak the release scheds for their films to make the maximum $ possible. For example, having an empty April but an over cluttered July will only hurt the box office.

Wow exel reading all that hurts

Yes the 5 and 0 curse continues...however they did generally follow some mega years that are just plainly hard to follow. I mean 1989 was the birth of the cinemaplex era (1989 sae the single biggest ticket sales increase in recent histiry), 1994 is one of the best movie years ever and 1999 was mega huge. You are right about summer 90 - they dropped the ball there and the biggest hit was a sleeper - Ghost. It came out in Jult not December - but what 90 is memorable for is the mega March (Pretty Woman, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Hunt for Red October) and offcourse end of the year (Home Alone, Wolves).

I's say of the rebound years you listed arent really rebound years as such. 1991 actually fell below 1990 in sales and tickets. Actually 2005 was the first year since 1991 to see a fall in revenue!

Though 96 and 01 did see good rebounds.

Totally agree that 2001 was the most well rounded BO year ever. Incredible summer and an even more incredible holiday season. Also one of my favourite movie years.

I kinda agree on the 2's and 7's though I dont think 1992 was all that strong. 1993 was infact stronger overall.

1997 is an interesting one. It was the first year (maybe apart from 1990) to fill the pre-summer season with big expensive films and it worked to an extent lifting early year BO to unprecedented levels. Though the less expensive Liar Liar and Star Wars reissue ended up on top. Summer 97 had a few high profile flops though - Speed 2 and Batman and Robin offcourse. November wasnt crash hot - but December was what BO folklore is all about. Incredible.

Finally - we did have underperformers in 03 - but the surprises (Nemo, Pirates) more than made up for them. Infact the only real underperformers (should have made $200m+) were Revolutions, Hulk and T3. Still 03 was huge.


Back to Magnus's list - 1987 rebounded was the strongest year since 1984 which was a mega year (Ghostbusters, Beverly Hills Cop, Indiana Jones, Gremlins, Splash, Karate kid - much like 2007 and 2004. hmmm interesting.

Yes - 1982 was huge!! History did repeat itself!

You know - although im looking forward to 2007 films more - it is quite possible that 2008 is even bigger when you consider there may be more room for blockbusters to breath and the slate looks like its getting better and better - Batman, Indiana Jones, Toy Story 3, Prince Caspian, Mummy 3 and James Cameron's Avatar.... we could be in for another golden era

As for 2009 onwards - who really knows. Maybe the studios will come up with some new movie going experience that brings people to theatres and away from their dvd players in 2009 just like 1989 when the megaplex era began

Thanks to The Break-Up's great opening, we just might stay level with last year.

And next week's double whammy of Cars and The Omen should top Mr. and Mrs. Smith from last year. Yay!

I'm pretty sure that this weekend will be a tad higher than the same weekend last year. Impressive, considering the combination of Madagascar, Sith, The Longest Yard and Cinderella Man last year.

well, this weekend is certainly going to come above the 138 million from last year. Actually, depending on how Saturday did, we have a pretty good chance of coming in almost 20 million above that figure.

Next weekend should be very nice as well. Even if one or two of the openers falter, we will still blow past last year's numbers of 129 million for the top 12.

Here's how I see next weekend going right now, though I am sure it will change drastically through the week, since I'm so unsure of the openers rights now...

1. Cars -- 40 million
2. Fast and Furious 3 -- 24 million
3. Nacho Libre -- 22 million
4. Garfield -- 17 million
5. The Lake House -- 14 million
6. The Break-Up -- 14 million
7. The Omen -- 8 million
8. X3 -- 8 million
9. Over the Hedge -- 7 million
10. The Da Vinci Code -- 6 million

That's a top 10 total of 160!
That would be an increase of 30 million over last year. That would be increadible!
And if one of the openers really breaks out, it could climb even higher!

Would it be possible to update the first post in the thread?

nah, 06 should top 04. The holiday looks be much bigger then anticpated.

With 139.8m - this weekend beats last year by 10%. Very good!

2006 should win the next two weekends atleast. The one after may be harder seeing that COTC and WC both opened on that date last year - but a strong sophmore sesh for POTC2 could help keep things strong. Then we have the late July weekends where Stealth and The Island flopped last year so July should overall stay above 2005.

August im not sure of yet - but Talledega nights can account for Dukes of Hazard - so we just need films to battle Four Brothers, Virgin and Red Eye.

September and October this year look much much stronger and better quality.

So it will be down to a Nov/Dec showdown which could go either way - but 06 needs a good buffer before going in to then.

I think the third weekend in July 14th-16th 2006 will win. It will be Pirates second weekend, and Lady in the Water and You me and Dupree both open, also Superman's 3rd weekend. Those 4 movies should be enough to beat 2005.

Lady in the Water opens on July 21.

July 14-16 is probably the only weekend of the rest of the summer (I think) where 2006 will lose to 2005. You, Me & Dupree would really need to break out and Pirates would need at least $60 million that weekend.

Whoops I wonder why I thought Lady in the Water opens that weekend. Yeah it is going to be tough then. POTC is going to have to do great to really have a chance.

If Pirates manages to grab $135 million OW, it'll manage to get $60 million on its 2nd weekend. Tracking for You, Me and Dupree seems solid. I see it coming close to $30 million, but not quite getting there.

I think about 30 sounds right for Dupree. It comes down to Pirates for that weekend, if it can pull in 60 that weekend will be up.

I think You, Me, and Dupree looks really funny. If they can turn up the marketing the next
few weeks to pump up awareness, it has the potential to open to 30M. I think the best hold
Pirates can hope for second weekend is a 50% drop. I can't see it dropping less than that
with all the hype.

how much did Charlie do last year? Did it break 60?

Charlie did $56 million and WC did about $33 million. That was a very strong weekend, actually. I think 2006 could manage.

Charlie made $56.2 million and Wedding Crashers made $33.9 million. For 2006 to keep pace, Pirates 2 would have to make more than $60 million and Dupree more than $30 million, since the holdovers should balance out.

Yeah me too, it will be close though, if Pirates can pull 55-57 and Dupree can make it up there to 32-35 it has a great chance.

with superman heading to around 60-65 million for the weekend, and the Devil Wears Prada looking to push 20 million, we are well on track to doing 145-150 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, well ahead of the 134 million made last year.

I think the real wildcard is going to be Monday. I can see many, many people taking Monday off in the Us with the 4th being the next day.

Also, Saturday is Canada Day here in Canada.
What anyone who lives here knows is that when a holiday falls on a weekend, government employees get the following Monday off, so many ppl in Canada will have Monday off as well.. could make for some very strong numbers, and may even help out Sunday a bit as well...

I sure hope that Pirates can pull a 100 million + opening because the box office could sure use it.
I have my doubts however...