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DIB2
All Star Poster
Joined: Wed Jun 14, 2006 3:57 am Posts: 4669 Location: Anchorage, AK
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Rank: 22nd
Accuracy: 87.56%
_________________My Most anticipated films of 2015 
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Tue Feb 05, 2008 8:17 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Congrats Levy! And nobody got a score on Wild West Comedy Show.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Mon Feb 11, 2008 7:29 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
congrats levy 
_________________The Force Awakens
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Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:23 pm |
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The Scottie
King Albert!
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm Posts: 11838 Location: The Happiest City on Earth
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Wow, even with a mediocre score, Levy wins the derby. I got tenth place with my score. That moved me up to 11th place for the year.
_________________Visit My Youtube Account and here is what you will see.  and many more.
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Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:39 pm |
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matatonio
Teh Mexican
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 11:56 pm Posts: 26066 Location: In good ol' Mexico
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Congrats Levy!. Im losing my groove!  ... im sucking big time.
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Tue Feb 12, 2008 2:20 am |
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Levy
Golfaholic
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2005 2:06 pm Posts: 16054
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Yay Me!! Thanks guys. Oddly enough that is my first derby win although I've been lingering around the top quite often... Up to 2nd for the month and 12th for the year. PS: I still think it sucks that no matter if you bet 1.1 or 100 on Wild West you get a zero.
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Tue Feb 12, 2008 3:01 am |
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asalem182
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:44 am Posts: 2375 Location: Cairo, Egypt
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Congrats Levy 255th for the week, 36th for the year, and 96th for the month. Hmm, maybe it's time to re-retire.
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Tue Feb 12, 2008 5:24 am |
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Omni
The Antichrist
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:04 am Posts: 1742 Location: Calisota
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Well done, Levy! A pretty bad February so far for us, and also the year is overall mediocre. At least it can only improve.
_________________
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Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:01 am |
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Ghostooze
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 3:47 pm Posts: 1406
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Hannah Montana is out for a third week? 
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Tue Feb 12, 2008 11:54 am |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Levy wrote: PS: I still think it sucks that no matter if you bet 1.1 or 100 on Wild West you get a zero. Levy's avatar was quite prescient - nicely done. It does suck that zeros aren't ranked, but I guess the alternative of negative percents would be pretty unpopular. It would help if BOM didn't allow movies into their "top 10" that had no shot at making the actual top 10. By the way, I know my list of best predicters in Derby history could use some improvement, so I am creating a new list that corrects for games like this one (and especially the I Am Legend one that Corpse won) that punish a lifetime score even though you get #1. BOM has no such list, so someone needs to create it. I will post it as soon as I can.
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Tue Feb 12, 2008 2:25 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
I always use "Average Ranking" as a better measuring stick.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Tue Feb 12, 2008 7:17 pm |
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Levy
Golfaholic
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2005 2:06 pm Posts: 16054
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
xiayun wrote: I always use "Average Ranking" as a better measuring stick. Is there a list for that?
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Wed Feb 13, 2008 8:58 am |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Note: posting this one here in addition to the thread where I started this. This took some time.Ok, so I got to thinking about the most fair way to rank the all-time best Derby predicters. Not to beat a dead horse, but since I started this thing, I wanted to do it right. The major complaint is the number of games played. But the main problem is that every game is of different difficulty. Corpse won the toughest game ever the week I Am Legend and Alvin and the Chipmunks came out, yet her winning score of 70.492 brought her overall average down, which is a disadvantage compared to people who didn't play that game (same for all who played that week). Similar story for Levy et al. this last weekend. Xiayun suggested average ranking as a better yardstick, and I agree, however, the problem there is the variable number of people in each game. To illustrate the problem, if there were a freak anomalous game of say 50 players, then a rank of 50 would seem pretty good, though you got last place. A rank of 100 out of 10,000 would be top 1% though it could hurt your average. To correct for these problems and be most fair, we should consider a player's score relative to the average score for each game, and then average those numbers. To these ends, I've considered only the 1000 players who have played the most games (1003 players of at least 31 games). This list is the top 10% or so of those, who have scored at least 10% above average on average (I thought Levy deserved to make the cut for the recent win). I'm sure no one is surprised to see Ragnarok still wins (who was that guy?). I know that there will still be resistance against those who played fewer games, but the relative to average score eliminates that as any kind of advantage. A higher number of games is still an honor in its own right though. I could also do a list to correct for improvement over time by considering everyone's most recent 30 games. But enough for now.
Player | Rel. to Ave Ave | Avg Rank | Avg Score | Games | Last Game |
Ragnarok | 1.159 | 45.66 | 84.70% | 100 | 6/3/2005 |
Peter Laughner | 1.155 | 69.00 | 81.51% | 39 | 5/2/2003 |
Gemini_2 | 1.151 | 57.30 | 84.13% | 109 | 12/31/2004 |
Vovanik | 1.149 | 51.13 | 84.21% | 184 | 1/25/2008 |
Omni | 1.146 | 71.06 | 83.42% | 72 | 2/8/2008 |
Corpse | 1.145 | 63.04 | 83.32% | 50 | 2/8/2008 |
Alex Young_2 | 1.145 | 78.06 | 82.23% | 100 | 3/12/2004 |
xiayun | 1.144 | 58.41 | 83.87% | 188 | 2/8/2008 |
OSHO ( Rus ) | 1.143 | 56.94 | 84.42% | 86 | 1/12/2007 |
Paradigma (RUS) | 1.143 | 73.14 | 84.30% | 49 | 12/14/2007 |
Michael Patrick | 1.142 | 95.69 | 80.62% | 45 | 3/21/2003 |
Brandon Gray | 1.141 | 65.13 | 83.07% | 248 | 12/22/2006 |
Laert44 (RUS) | 1.140 | 70.65 | 83.71% | 113 | 1/18/2008 |
RKyle | 1.139 | 75.50 | 83.59% | 143 | 2/8/2008 |
Scott Vasquez | 1.138 | 69.68 | 82.95% | 305 | 2/8/2008 |
Adam H | 1.138 | 67.41 | 81.88% | 34 | 8/15/2003 |
betaman | 1.137 | 77.63 | 83.14% | 134 | 1/4/2008 |
HP2003 | 1.134 | 80.25 | 81.01% | 63 | 5/19/2004 |
JURY GALIMOV | 1.133 | 74.10 | 82.64% | 136 | 2/8/2008 |
Crag Hack | 1.132 | 71.51 | 83.06% | 191 | 2/8/2008 |
Mr. Sparkle | 1.130 | 69.15 | 83.77% | 39 | 1/25/2008 |
DIB2 | 1.130 | 80.11 | 82.65% | 84 | 2/8/2008 |
dprimora | 1.130 | 87.66 | 81.17% | 96 | 1/23/2004 |
Azrail (Osetia) | 1.129 | 102.56 | 83.26% | 36 | 2/1/2008 |
smh_emadie | 1.129 | 86.76 | 81.08% | 38 | 8/1/2003 |
Pantalaimon | 1.128 | 93.84 | 81.25% | 32 | 2/8/2008 |
Arch Stanton | 1.128 | 110.25 | 81.64% | 32 | 10/12/2007 |
sexy jessica | 1.127 | 91.29 | 80.37% | 48 | 5/2/2003 |
mh_emadi_2 | 1.127 | 83.97 | 81.08% | 39 | 8/1/2003 |
Bill Delehanty | 1.127 | 80.74 | 82.67% | 221 | 2/8/2008 |
King Aragorn | 1.126 | 93.94 | 80.88% | 32 | 8/15/2003 |
Nostradamus (Russia) | 1.126 | 85.68 | 82.38% | 71 | 6/29/2007 |
Rafael Armando | 1.126 | 74.56 | 82.00% | 170 | 2/3/2006 |
Jeff 42 | 1.126 | 78.97 | 82.63% | 203 | 5/25/2007 |
evil darth pimp | 1.126 | 77.78 | 83.47% | 65 | 10/15/2004 |
CALot | 1.125 | 85.71 | 82.12% | 75 | 2/8/2008 |
foolosopher | 1.124 | 90.36 | 83.24% | 53 | 1/18/2008 |
RUS IGOR | 1.123 | 75.30 | 82.95% | 90 | 11/9/2007 |
klem | 1.123 | 83.82 | 81.67% | 137 | 9/9/2005 |
bullseye | 1.121 | 98.55 | 80.00% | 44 | 6/23/2006 |
dolemit3 | 1.120 | 102.57 | 81.86% | 87 | 11/16/2007 |
Leonardo da Vinci | 1.119 | 79.01 | 83.21% | 138 | 2/17/2006 |
Mithrandir | 1.119 | 92.19 | 81.28% | 63 | 7/23/2004 |
sadysto | 1.119 | 103.31 | 81.78% | 74 | 10/26/2007 |
meteor_phoenix | 1.118 | 107.97 | 79.55% | 63 | 6/27/2003 |
amiyumi_2 | 1.117 | 82.67 | 82.32% | 72 | 12/24/2004 |
Len Anderson | 1.117 | 98.24 | 79.83% | 63 | 1/16/2004 |
trixster | 1.116 | 101.39 | 82.20% | 82 | 8/24/2007 |
magicdreamer | 1.116 | 115.62 | 80.86% | 37 | 8/24/2007 |
IGOR MOJAEV | 1.116 | 87.91 | 82.13% | 58 | 3/25/2005 |
StarchildFan | 1.115 | 110.85 | 78.44% | 52 | 9/19/2003 |
Misha A | 1.115 | 105.75 | 81.15% | 293 | 2/8/2008 |
NetGhost | 1.115 | 94.17 | 81.62% | 161 | 2/8/2008 |
MikeQ. | 1.114 | 97.58 | 82.06% | 160 | 10/20/2006 |
Azamat | 1.113 | 95.29 | 81.18% | 127 | 2/8/2008 |
WebNavigator | 1.113 | 88.09 | 83.36% | 47 | 3/16/2007 |
these2shall pass | 1.113 | 128.12 | 78.43% | 33 | 3/21/2003 |
Aki Oksanen 5 | 1.113 | 98.84 | 81.34% | 236 | 8/24/2007 |
djt09 | 1.113 | 118.69 | 78.97% | 64 | 5/27/2005 |
Sol | 1.112 | 130.92 | 77.60% | 39 | 2/21/2003 |
moonreflection | 1.112 | 96.08 | 80.57% | 123 | 2/10/2006 |
JMorphin | 1.112 | 100.35 | 81.58% | 223 | 2/16/2007 |
Wolfram Meidlinger | 1.111 | 100.89 | 81.11% | 293 | 12/21/2007 |
S_Whitford | 1.111 | 92.07 | 81.96% | 121 | 6/23/2006 |
da torri | 1.110 | 99.51 | 82.90% | 43 | 3/3/2006 |
SaW | 1.110 | 113.76 | 79.70% | 42 | 2/8/2008 |
Chris Greffin | 1.110 | 103.08 | 79.56% | 39 | 12/12/2003 |
Corwin (RUS) | 1.109 | 99.79 | 81.13% | 167 | 2/8/2008 |
Rod_2 | 1.109 | 109.06 | 80.56% | 125 | 10/8/2004 |
asalem182 | 1.109 | 99.81 | 81.28% | 200 | 2/8/2008 |
haerpino | 1.109 | 103.10 | 81.61% | 87 | 12/29/2006 |
Animosity Reigns | 1.108 | 103.38 | 82.01% | 135 | 10/5/2007 |
necronomic (Russia) | 1.108 | 95.56 | 81.28% | 59 | 7/21/2006 |
Adam Nemeth2 | 1.108 | 119.41 | 78.08% | 44 | 5/2/2003 |
mfantin65 | 1.108 | 108.20 | 81.90% | 50 | 6/3/2005 |
Juni78ukr | 1.108 | 111.06 | 80.93% | 115 | 2/8/2008 |
Dieter Rogiers | 1.108 | 131.76 | 76.58% | 38 | 12/10/2004 |
John Martin | 1.108 | 112.21 | 78.45% | 52 | 5/9/2003 |
dar2005 | 1.108 | 104.85 | 81.56% | 176 | 12/15/2006 |
redrum | 1.107 | 108.88 | 81.98% | 49 | 10/5/2007 |
Kullervo | 1.107 | 106.41 | 81.36% | 83 | 7/15/2005 |
ghogue | 1.107 | 126.73 | 80.48% | 44 | 2/8/2008 |
Jack Ward_2 | 1.107 | 90.87 | 81.26% | 47 | 5/19/2004 |
winnie_2 | 1.106 | 115.25 | 80.46% | 193 | 2/3/2006 |
The Bates_2 | 1.106 | 120.13 | 78.25% | 39 | 5/2/2003 |
Paul_B | 1.105 | 108.38 | 81.33% | 151 | 8/3/2007 |
kidwltm | 1.105 | 108.60 | 79.71% | 77 | 2/6/2004 |
Nate Lamarra | 1.105 | 117.70 | 77.59% | 37 | 7/2/2003 |
Joel The Great | 1.105 | 111.09 | 81.96% | 32 | 2/1/2008 |
Stefan_2 | 1.105 | 102.08 | 80.61% | 264 | 11/16/2007 |
hgreen | 1.104 | 125.03 | 80.25% | 100 | 2/8/2008 |
rhett_2 | 1.104 | 106.63 | 81.21% | 35 | 6/25/2004 |
Joel_2 | 1.104 | 123.58 | 79.13% | 33 | 6/30/2006 |
Zingaling | 1.104 | 103.81 | 81.17% | 197 | 8/17/2007 |
Vharrus | 1.103 | 110.47 | 81.58% | 45 | 8/10/2007 |
Michael W | 1.103 | 142.63 | 76.44% | 38 | 12/27/2002 |
David Hatfield | 1.103 | 113.31 | 78.79% | 65 | 12/17/2003 |
VasekVVV | 1.103 | 118.69 | 79.40% | 48 | 2/8/2008 |
Mrs Smoker feat. Jay Z | 1.103 | 117.19 | 81.00% | 175 | 9/21/2007 |
Groucho | 1.102 | 122.20 | 80.83% | 46 | 9/14/2007 |
WildThings | 1.102 | 113.79 | 80.54% | 77 | 8/10/2007 |
fabulix | 1.102 | 112.05 | 80.59% | 104 | 2/8/2008 |
plot | 1.101 | 96.71 | 81.13% | 34 | 4/1/2005 |
Clint G | 1.101 | 132.71 | 77.59% | 48 | 2/14/2003 |
bluecrushfan88 | 1.101 | 106.54 | 81.02% | 175 | 3/9/2007 |
Levy (WOKJ) | 1.101 | 114.43 | 79.34% | 124 | 2/8/2008 |
Indiana baumer | 1.101 | 148.82 | 78.15% | 45 | 8/10/2007 |
Cory G. | 1.101 | 115.78 | 80.63% | 218 | 2/8/2008 |
Han Solo (RUS) | 1.100 | 117.68 | 79.68% | 41 | 2/8/2008 |
Rick_3 | 1.100 | 134.32 | 76.75% | 34 | 7/30/2004 |
This table brought to you by Excel2BB Converter. Created by Krem for World of KJ
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Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:44 pm |
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matatonio
Teh Mexican
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 11:56 pm Posts: 26066 Location: In good ol' Mexico
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
wow... i just notice that the past week was my worst since December 26, 2005 (64.777%), and a week after i got the best score in derby history... Does it still stand? 
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Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:50 am |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
matatonio wrote: wow... i just notice that the past week was my worst since December 26, 2005 (64.777%), and a week after i got the best score in derby history... Does it still stand?  IM pretty sure it does a 97% is sick. 
_________________The Force Awakens
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Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:25 pm |
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Proud Ryu
Deshi Basara
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:36 pm Posts: 5322 Location: The Interstice
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
BJ wrote: matatonio wrote: wow... i just notice that the past week was my worst since December 26, 2005 (64.777%), and a week after i got the best score in derby history... Does it still stand?  IM pretty sure it does a 97% is sick.  Oh yeah, the 97.11% is the best score ever (for the Chronic-what-cles of Narnia contest). 2nd place: 96.949%, sadysto (Night at the Museum) 3rd place: 96.945%, NetGhost (Night at the Museum, same game as above)
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Fri Feb 15, 2008 12:55 pm |
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Omni
The Antichrist
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:04 am Posts: 1742 Location: Calisota
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Ehh, so close, and so there's obviously something to regret. At any rate, big congrats to asalem  , me myself & Corpse, and Xia.
_________________
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Tue Feb 19, 2008 7:47 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37162 Location: The Graveyard
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Omni wrote: Ehh, so close, and so there's obviously something to regret.At any rate, big congrats to asalem  , me myself & Corpse, and Xia. I'd say Juno since we were going to go higher and not safer.
3rd for the week (93.61%). And the top 4 are all KJers. And congrats to Jayhawk, dreamline, sidewinder and 2001 also.
4th for the year so far.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Tue Feb 19, 2008 8:37 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm Posts: 25109 Location: San Mateo, CA
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Hannah's Monday cost me the win, but I have only myself to blame for lowering Step Up 2's prediction from 22 to 20 to 17 in a 5 minute span.
Congrats asalem! And certainly Omni/Corpse as well.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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Tue Feb 19, 2008 9:38 pm |
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Kyle
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:49 am Posts: 489 Location: Gogia's Bar
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Congrats Ahmed 
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Wed Feb 20, 2008 2:59 am |
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Levy
Golfaholic
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2005 2:06 pm Posts: 16054
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Total KJ domination!
Congrats everybody...
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Wed Feb 20, 2008 3:01 am |
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asalem182
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 6:44 am Posts: 2375 Location: Cairo, Egypt
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Thanks everyone My fourth win overall, and the 2nd in the last 10 games. 20th for the year, and 39th for the month. Total domination by KJ 
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Wed Feb 20, 2008 4:22 am |
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The Scottie
King Albert!
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:04 pm Posts: 11838 Location: The Happiest City on Earth
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Good job Asalem. I got 32nd place this weekend.
That moved me up to #5 for the month, and I am in the top 10 for the year. This is probably the quickest I have ever been in the top ten for a calender year.
_________________Visit My Youtube Account and here is what you will see.  and many more.
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Wed Feb 20, 2008 4:25 am |
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Levy
Golfaholic
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2005 2:06 pm Posts: 16054
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Yeah, the monthly charts looks good:
2. BJ 4. Xia 5. Scott 7. Dreamline 8. Myself 11. Corpse 12. Omni
And the Yearly chart is even better for KJ: 1. Xia 3. BJ 4. Corpse 5. Omni 9. Dreamline 10. Scott 11. Dib 13. Myself
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Wed Feb 20, 2008 5:25 am |
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almost famous
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2006 5:09 pm Posts: 1461 Location: Odessa, Ukraine
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 Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread
Congratulations to to asalem. Great score indeed!
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Wed Feb 20, 2008 7:36 am |
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