Haha! My predictions have been so terrible lately, I don't mind saying Cars will barely do $50 m and end up in the low $50's, while Bad Teacher could do $40 m in a best, best case scenario (though mid $30's is more likely).

I may be alone, but I feel like Bad Teacher is headed for a disappointing weekend. I don't get any sense of buzz for it and its pretty low (relatively) on Fandango right now (just 3%, even with Potter in the mix). Marketing has been all over the place in tone and Diaz hasn't been much of a draw in recent years. The R-rating could further keep it from the audience its aiming toward (teens) with some of the off-color jokes and selling of Diaz's sex appeal, while women probably won't be going anywhere near this thing.

BOM polls are good, but I suspect an anomaly there. Tough call, especially with tracking's mixed signals.

I'm with you. I've been predicting a sub-$20m opening for awhile for the reasons you stated, and because there's plenty of alternative R-rated comedies.

ummm... wrong.

I don't understand the appeal of Bad Teacher either, but *shrugs*.

Where is tracking giving mixed signals specially when talking below $20m for BT? The target demo is still women even though they are selling Diaz's sex appeal.

Some great points. It did very well on Twitter, but Timberlake most definitely had an impact. The fact that it wasn't on Fandango's Top 5 last night had me drop my prediction 25%.

Scottie's Predictions
The Turk's Predictions

Let them know what you think!

Movie Betting Odds
The chalk looks like BT 27, Cars 63

Jun 24, 2011 13:00 Box Office Opening Weekend Gross: Bad Teacher
Option Win Odds
USD 17 Million to USD 22 Million 2.50
USD 22 Million to USD 27 Million 2.50
USD 27 Million or more 3.40
17 million or less 4.00
Jun 24, 2011 13:00 Box Office Opening Weekend Gross: Cars 2
Option Win Odds
USD 55 Million to USD 63 Million 2.50
USD 63 Million to USD 70 Million 2.50
55 million or less 3.40
USD 70 Million or more 4.00

Hey Shawn, what did you predict for Midnight In Paris? Was really tough without a theater count. I have it dropping less than 15%, but was just a guess.

Thanks, guys!

RT: I have $3.5m in the Derby for it. Not having the theater count really stinks (wish BOM wouldn't include movies in the Derby when they don't have counts, but oh well). I almost went lower than that but I gotta figure it should hold well even after Father's Day weekend and with a relatively flat theater count.

I had 4.2 for Midnight in Paris (-14%). It looks like it expanded into about 33 theaters judging by its website.

I literally spent about two minutes on this weeks Derby predictions. Should be interesting to see how bad I do. I had Midnight at 3.7M for the derby.

Hmm, forgot about the double-booking effect on Pirates 4 from Cars 2. A sub-30% hold is actually likely, going by the Friday increase Pirates 3 got when Ratatouille opened.

Yeah it crossed my mind. I still went conservative on Pirates with -39% - not sure how the inflated Father's Day or 3D loss would affect it. I noticed in 2006 the reverse situation happened, with Pirates 2 opening onto Cars and Cars had a very favorable weekend drop.

horrible prediction on BT & GL just horrible!

BT I can possibly understand (I went with my personal observations on that one -- being zero interest), but GL? I can't see it getting above $17.5 million this weekend.

God, ShawnMR, those predictions fucking suck! WHAT WERE YOU SMOKING? ARGH! BLARGH! FOOL, I SAY!

Cars 2 - 70m
Bad Teacher - 30m

Give the guy a break...his articles rock and we all miss stuff now and then.

Interestingly this weekend is very similar to Memorial Day weekend in terms of tracking and target demo. Both have had a R-Rated Comedy and animation sequel where the latter was tracking poor in terms of previous expectations....needless to say the Memorial Day weekend movies would be affected this weekend for sure

I was kidding, for the record.