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Scottie Predicts (6/24 - 6/26)
Rank Name Prediction Theater Count % Change
1  Cars 2  62.0  4115  new
2  Bad Teacher  20.1  3049  new
3  Green Lantern  18.6  3816  -65%
4  Super 8  13.3  3424  -38%
5  Mr. Popper's Penguins  11.0  3342  -40%
6  X-men First Class  5.4  2633  -55%
7  Hangover Part II  5.3  2755  -48%
8  Pirates 4  4.5  2244  -32%
9  Bridesmaids  4.4  2021  -40%
10  Kung Fu Panda 2  4.1  2527  -54%

I like Trucks I always will, big or small I like them still, I like Trucks I always will, I like Trucks.  Sorry, I couldn't resist singing the song with Cars 2 driving into your multiplexes.  Cars 2 opens in a new Pixar record of 4115 theaters.  Pixar has a great track record, everybody knows that, but there are a few worrying factors to this one.  First off, unlike Toy Story 3, this is a sequel to a film that was better known for merchandising than brilliance.  Second, reviews are mixed, which could prevent it from getting the broad audience the previous films got.  Third, the story may be a bit too complicated for the young ones.  It has 3D, but it should be no different than the first one.  I see Shrek Forever After syndrome for this (another 3D sequel to a lukewarm film), giving it a similar 15.5k pta.

Those who don't want to see colorful cars may want to see teachers with colorful profanity instead.  Cameron Diaz plays the Bad Teacher in 3049 classroom.  Having Diaz play a villain is very interesting, and may attract audiences due to curiosity.  The trailers have been pretty funny with some good topical jokes, and having Diaz in short shorts doesn't hurt either.  But in terms of advance sales and buzz, I don't see it going extremely broad with this extreme broad.  Instead, it will enjoy the usual take for R-rated raunch, a 6.5k pta.  With many other films in this genre aimed more female, there may be a bit of fatigue, but with a budget of only $35 million, this is nothing to complain about, okay, maybe she will complain about it, but who cares about her, she's going to hell anyway.

Among holdovers, Green Lantern will suffer from, a) bad buzz and lukewarm WOM, b) Disastrous Saturday Drop, and c) Father's Day inflation.  This triple threat will see at least a 65% drop, if not more or less.  Super 8 could have had a better hold than this, but the Sunday will be more deflated this time, ditto for X-men (along with the theater drop).  Mr. Poppers has a bit of competition, but with the warm response from the families, this will be a good alternative to the Cars, so the drop won't be too bad.  Hangover 2 will have a little competition, but still consistent with the other weekends in the pta drop department.  Pirates 4 should have a surprisingly great hold, due to most likely being double booked with Cars.  It worked for the 3rd Pirates, as it dropped only 31% with Ratatouille opened (it too had a similar theater drop).  This should do the same to some extent as the pta will stay above 2k.  Bridesmaids see direct competition, and a theater loss, so the time has come.  Kung Fu Panda will to a triple threat with Lightning McQueen, loss of 3D theaters, and Sunday deflation.  This is the Scottie driving out...Vroom!

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Total Comments: 2
Karl Schneider
Karl Schneider    Jun 24 2011 5:26pm
I do think kids will go out in droves for Cars 2, the question is, will it be enough to off-set the inevitable decline in enthusiasm among the standard Pixar crowd?
The Scottie
The Scottie    Jun 24 2011 9:45pm
Oh and for the record, I put a 4 million prediction for Midnight in Paris for you derby trackers.