
The Incredibles Prediction Thread: 2nd Friday - $14,900,000
Well, since I don't see one at the moment, I thought I'll just create one. First of all, here the basic information for the movie:
Director: Brad Bird (The Iron Giant)
Cast/Voices: Craig T. Nelson, Samuel L. Jackson, Holly Hunter, Jason Lee, Wallace Shawn, John Ratzenberger, Sarah Vowell, Spencer Fox, Brad Bird
Release Date: November 5, 2004
Theatre count: 3700+ est.
Competition:
The Polar Express opening 5 days after it, Spongebob Squarepants opening in its third weekend.
Trailers/Clips/Featurettes:
Teaser:
http://www.apple.com/trailers/disney/th ... large.html
Trailer 1:
http://www.apple.com/trailers/disney/th ... large.html
Trailer 2:
http://www.apple.com/trailers/disney/th ... large.html
International Trailer:
http://www.incinemas.com.au/trailers/tr ... es_480.mov
Film Clips:
http://www.cinemovies.fr/fiche_extrait.php?IDfilm=2149
Featurettes:
http://movies.yahoo.com/shop?d=hv&cf=tr ... 32&intl=us
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The Incredibles has so much going for it, it's unbelievable. One magic word that is the key to The Incredibles' success is
PIXAR. Pixar has never failed. It has never failed the expectations of the studio and it has never failed the expectations of the viewers.
Each of Pixar's movies so far has opened to more than its predecessor and ended up with more than its predecessor. Last yaer a Pixar movie,
Finding Nemo, dethroned The Lion King as the most successful animated movie of all time and that after many year's of TLK's reign.
Furthermore, people just want to see
CGI animated movies. This is more obvious that anything.
Shark Tale has been getting bad WoM and terrible reviews over at RT and yet its drops are small, legs are good and a total gross of around $185+ million is very likely.
Moreover, The Incredibles' release date will help it out a lot. It is mimicing Monsters Inc.'s release date which benefited heavily from Thanksgiving and Christmas. Monsters Inc. was harmed by Harry Potter and the Sorceror's Stone quite a bit, though. The Incredibles won't have such a huge opponent to deal with.
However, even
The Incredibles has some few minor obstacles in its way. It is Pixar's first PG-rated movie, in contrast to all its previous G-rated efforts. Also the theme of the movie doesn't have such a wide appeal as...say Finding Nemo. The biggest obstacle, however, will be the fact that Robert Zemeckis' The Polar Express is opening exactly FIVE days after The Incredibles.
The Polar Express is really a wild guess. It can bomb or be a huge hit. I predict it to be a big hit, this year's Elf. Zemeckis has rarely ever failed and this year he has Tom Hanks' support as well as a classic Christmas theme. This kind of competiton will surely hurt The Incredibles. Even if The Polar Express won't be huge, it will still hurt The Incerdibles somewhat.
Therefore, here are my (almost) final predictions:
Opening weekend - $69 million
Total gross - $288 million
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PREDICTIONS:
Opening weekend:
BOYFRESH - $45 million
Nebs - $62 million
Chris - $65 million
Mr. X. - $65.4 million
zach - $66.8 million
k. aragorn - $68.8 million
Dr. Lecter - $70.5 million
BigMoviePimp - $71 million
Zingaling - $72.3 million
Algren - $73 million
micasey300 - $73.3 million
alex young - $78 million
Jon Lyrik - $81.9 million
ChipMunky - $82 million
DP07 - $82 million
BacktotheFuture - $82.3 million
SFERIC - $84 million
BJ - $86 million
JURiNG - $88.6 million
matatonio - $90 million
choubachou - $96 million
Average: $75.42 million
Total gross:
BOYFRESH - $180 million
Nebs - $211 million
Chris - $250 million
Zingaling - $278.8 million
k. aragorn - $280.5 million
Dr. Lecter - $284 million
BigMoviePimp - $285 million
Zingaling - $289.2 million
BacktotheFuture - $290.4 million
matatonio - $305 million
Mr. X. - $305.3 million
Algren - $310 million
micasey300 - $328 million
ChipMunky - $332 million
Jon Lyrik - $337.5 million
alex young - $344 million
DP07 - $355 million
SFERIC - $385 million
JURiNG - $401 million
choubachou - $410 million
BJ - $445 million
Average: $314.60 million
Average multiplier: 4.171