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 The Incredibles Prediction Thread: 2nd Friday - $14,900,000 
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Post The Incredibles Prediction Thread: 2nd Friday - $14,900,000
Well, since I don't see one at the moment, I thought I'll just create one. First of all, here the basic information for the movie:


Director: Brad Bird (The Iron Giant)
Cast/Voices: Craig T. Nelson, Samuel L. Jackson, Holly Hunter, Jason Lee, Wallace Shawn, John Ratzenberger, Sarah Vowell, Spencer Fox, Brad Bird
Release Date: November 5, 2004
Theatre count: 3700+ est.
Competition:

The Polar Express opening 5 days after it, Spongebob Squarepants opening in its third weekend.


Trailers/Clips/Featurettes:

Teaser:

http://www.apple.com/trailers/disney/th ... large.html

Trailer 1:

http://www.apple.com/trailers/disney/th ... large.html

Trailer 2:

http://www.apple.com/trailers/disney/th ... large.html

International Trailer:

http://www.incinemas.com.au/trailers/tr ... es_480.mov

Film Clips:

http://www.cinemovies.fr/fiche_extrait.php?IDfilm=2149

Featurettes:

http://movies.yahoo.com/shop?d=hv&cf=tr ... 32&intl=us

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Incredibles has so much going for it, it's unbelievable. One magic word that is the key to The Incredibles' success is PIXAR. Pixar has never failed. It has never failed the expectations of the studio and it has never failed the expectations of the viewers.

Each of Pixar's movies so far has opened to more than its predecessor and ended up with more than its predecessor. Last yaer a Pixar movie, Finding Nemo, dethroned The Lion King as the most successful animated movie of all time and that after many year's of TLK's reign.

Furthermore, people just want to see CGI animated movies. This is more obvious that anything. Shark Tale has been getting bad WoM and terrible reviews over at RT and yet its drops are small, legs are good and a total gross of around $185+ million is very likely.

Moreover, The Incredibles' release date will help it out a lot. It is mimicing Monsters Inc.'s release date which benefited heavily from Thanksgiving and Christmas. Monsters Inc. was harmed by Harry Potter and the Sorceror's Stone quite a bit, though. The Incredibles won't have such a huge opponent to deal with.


However, even The Incredibles has some few minor obstacles in its way. It is Pixar's first PG-rated movie, in contrast to all its previous G-rated efforts. Also the theme of the movie doesn't have such a wide appeal as...say Finding Nemo. The biggest obstacle, however, will be the fact that Robert Zemeckis' The Polar Express is opening exactly FIVE days after The Incredibles. The Polar Express is really a wild guess. It can bomb or be a huge hit. I predict it to be a big hit, this year's Elf. Zemeckis has rarely ever failed and this year he has Tom Hanks' support as well as a classic Christmas theme. This kind of competiton will surely hurt The Incredibles. Even if The Polar Express won't be huge, it will still hurt The Incerdibles somewhat.

Therefore, here are my (almost) final predictions:


Opening weekend - $69 million

Total gross - $288 million

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PREDICTIONS:

Opening weekend:

BOYFRESH - $45 million
Nebs - $62 million
Chris - $65 million
Mr. X. - $65.4 million
zach - $66.8 million
k. aragorn - $68.8 million
Dr. Lecter - $70.5 million
BigMoviePimp - $71 million
Zingaling - $72.3 million
Algren - $73 million
micasey300 - $73.3 million
alex young - $78 million
Jon Lyrik - $81.9 million
ChipMunky - $82 million
DP07 - $82 million
BacktotheFuture - $82.3 million
SFERIC - $84 million
BJ - $86 million
JURiNG - $88.6 million
matatonio - $90 million
choubachou - $96 million

Average: $75.42 million


Total gross:

BOYFRESH - $180 million
Nebs - $211 million
Chris - $250 million
Zingaling - $278.8 million
k. aragorn - $280.5 million
Dr. Lecter - $284 million
BigMoviePimp - $285 million
Zingaling - $289.2 million
BacktotheFuture - $290.4 million
matatonio - $305 million
Mr. X. - $305.3 million
Algren - $310 million
micasey300 - $328 million
ChipMunky - $332 million
Jon Lyrik - $337.5 million
alex young - $344 million
DP07 - $355 million
SFERIC - $385 million
JURiNG - $401 million
choubachou - $410 million
BJ - $445 million

Average: $314.60 million

Average multiplier: 4.171

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Last edited by Dr. Lecter on Sat Nov 13, 2004 3:51 pm, edited 13 times in total.



Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:48 pm
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Indiana Jones IV

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Opening 60-78m
Total 230-270m


Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:49 pm
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College Boy Z

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Opening- $69.7 million
Total- $278.8 million

Lookin' good for The Incredibles. Great advertising, good and funny trailers, good release date. It's going to murder The Polar Express, so there's no worry. :)


Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:49 pm
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The film looks very funny but I think that its going to lack on the story. Finding Nemo was a big hit because of the great story and the comedy was just a bonus, but this looks like more comedy than story. So if I confused you.


Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:51 pm
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Opening- 82 mil
Total- 332 mil

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Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:53 pm
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45m/180m

I think Dreamworks double team of Shrek 2 DVD Nov. 5 and Shark tale finishing it's run will hurt it.


Tue Oct 19, 2004 1:52 pm
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$62m opening
$211m final


Tue Oct 19, 2004 2:41 pm
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BOYFRESH wrote:
45m/180m

I think Dreamworks double team of Shrek 2 DVD Nov. 5 and Shark tale finishing it's run will hurt it.


Now that's kind of lowballing, eh?

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Tue Oct 19, 2004 4:28 pm
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Hmm...I'm not liking the trailers I'm seeing on TV right now, but I'm sure it'll do great nonetheless.

$65/$250


Tue Oct 19, 2004 5:49 pm
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
BOYFRESH wrote:
45m/180m

I think Dreamworks double team of Shrek 2 DVD Nov. 5 and Shark tale finishing it's run will hurt it.


Now that's kind of lowballing, eh?


Seriously, thats really low, I think that its a lock for 200m personally.


Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:40 pm
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sako16 wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
BOYFRESH wrote:
45m/180m

I think Dreamworks double team of Shrek 2 DVD Nov. 5 and Shark tale finishing it's run will hurt it.


Now that's kind of lowballing, eh?


Seriously, thats really low, I think that its a lock for 200m personally.


It may be a little low, I could see maybe 10m on my original 180m TBO figure. Pixar can't have a hit everytime. :D


Tue Oct 19, 2004 10:54 pm
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Right now I'm at 82m/355. However, I have some doubts. CGI humans don't seem to work that well. Still, the way the handle it in this film is far better then The Polar Express or Final Fantasy.


Tue Oct 19, 2004 10:56 pm
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I've updated with predictions and averages.

C'mon people, post your predictions! :D

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Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:44 pm
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Opening 88.6
Total 401
...

:D


Fri Oct 22, 2004 4:12 pm
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84m / 385m


Fri Oct 22, 2004 5:17 pm
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$90M/$305M


Fri Oct 22, 2004 5:28 pm
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78/344

SharkTale's underwhelming opening is giving me doubts though.


Sat Oct 23, 2004 4:12 am
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Could go anywhere from 50 million to 80 million....

Opening: $67.5
Total: $313.0


Sat Oct 23, 2004 9:17 am
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Opening weekend: $65.4m
Total gross: $305.3m

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Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:15 am
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Averages and predictions updated

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Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:41 pm
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I'm thinking $65-68 million opening...more than Monsters Inc but slightly less than Finding Nemo...but exceeding $250 million total. I think it will do better among older teens and guys, but might lose some women. I just think it's funny that the two biggest movies of the year are SHREK 2 (CGI) and Spider-Man 2 (CGI) just as Pixar mixes the two..of course, it's not a sequel.

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Sun Oct 24, 2004 12:06 am
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$71m/$295m

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Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:18 pm
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Probably close to 300. One thing though, unless the Polar Express is a great magical very received movie, The Incredibles will probably kill it.


Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:25 pm
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My final predictions are in my sig, so look below.

The Incredibles is gonna rock our world. :twisted:

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Tue Oct 26, 2004 8:57 pm
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choubachou wrote:
My final predictions are in my sig, so look below.

The Incredibles is gonna rock our world. :twisted:


hmmmmm... Best Picture Nomination uh!
cool!


Tue Oct 26, 2004 9:00 pm
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