I think I jinxed it.

Man, Pitt got OWNED!!!


















































NOT!

Zzzzzz... this was a rough day for games. Probably the worst first day of the tourney I can ever remember, and I've been following this stuff closely for almost ten years. Here's hoping tomorrow picks up, eh?

NIT's new slogan "We're a hell of alot better than Stanford!"

I went 13-3. I am in the Kansas group in ESPN, because I didn't know there was a WOKJ group.

http://games.espn.go.com/tcmen/entry?entryID=1868641&entryIDFrom=1868641

I missed Marquette, ODU and Gonzaga. I would have gone with MSU, but I finished the bracket before I knew about the injury to the Marquette player. I hated both team, same with IU and Gonzaga. I went with the Zags, because Sampson usually doesn't win in the first rd. ODU was the one I really missed. Butler just didn't look good at the end of the season, and ODU was hot. However, Butler had that one spurt and it was enough for a comfortable win, congrats Butler.

I hated picking Purdue/Arizona and Illinois/VTech, because they all stink. I was really regretting picking VCU in the first 10 minutes of that game, but it worked out ok. BYU/Xavier was a really good game, I am surpised no one mentioned it. Also, didn't the officials blow a backcourt violation by Duke when the score was 52-50. The Duke player had his foot and the ball over the halfcourt line and then threw it to the backcourt. The announcers didn't mention it (shocking), but it was a blown call and Duke ended up with a 3 pt. basket.

My take having watched mostly B-12, some ACC, Big East, and B-10 games, and UCLA/Florida games. The Big 12 was pretty bad early in the season and improved to mediocre, but Texas A & M, Texas, and Kansas are for real. In another unbalanced bad conference the B-10, OSU and Wisconsin are the only elite teams. The rest just beat up on Penn St., Minnesota, and Northwestern to pad their record and get in the tournament. Wisconsin can be had and I would not be surprised to seem the go out early, though I have them going far (elite 8). They just don't have much margin of error, they can't blow anyone out for any length of time and that will catch up with them at some point. The ACC may be the best conference, UNC, and Maryland are elite, but both can be had with the right pressure. Virginia is a fraud. V-Tech is a semi-fraud, sometimes they really are a good team . In the SEC which is the best conference if the ACC isn't, Florida is the only top team, but Vanderbilt might be better than I have given them credit. Beating any team in the NCAA by 30+ is very impressive even a sub-par GW having an awful night. Marquette looked just as inept, but MSU wasn't much better so it was "competive" game). The Big East is just below the SEC/ACC, Georgetown is the Beast and Pitt is a lesser monster, the rest of the teams are not that good except for Louisville and Notre Dame, but they are inconsistent and I don't see them getting past the first weekend (although they both could make good runs, Louisville should have a great chance in Lexington). Stanford sucked, so don't let their ineptness make Louisville look too good. The Pac 10 is at the bottom with the B-12 and B-10. UCLA is the team and the rest are just for show, although Wash. St. and Oregon (similiar to ND and 'Ville) can beat anyone for 3 games. I have them doing well more because of their opponents than I think they are top 10 teams, they just can't win the whole thing.

I think the winner eventually will be KU, Florida, Ohio St. Georgetown, Memphis or UNC. Texas is a possibility, because they are so talented and they can still improve as the tourney is played. However, their defense is weak (compared to this group) and they make too many mistakes. Wisconsin and A & M just don't have the talent, although they will go down as warriors. Pitt will blow a game somewhere and I don't think they have the talent either, nor team intelligence. Maryland won't have the stamina and their inside game will be overmatched at some point. On paper UCLA is not missing anything, but they lost in the 1st rd of their conference tourney and no National Champion has ever done that. Their offense is also weak compared to the rest of the group.

I don't think Florida will win, because they will have a tougher match ups this year than last and it will have a toll in the elite 8 or Final Four. They are also much more inconsistent than last year, which may be the impact of having already won it. Memphis I don't think has been tested enough and will lose to a tough team at some point. UNC looks like the best team on paper (great offense and defense), but I don't see how they get past Texas and Georgetown.

Which leave OSU, Georgetown, and KU. OSU could very well win it all, they seem to be the best team. However, I don't think Matta is a good enough coach and I think a tough older team takes them out (ie A&M which will basically be a home game). I also don't think the teams in the B 10 prepared them for the tournement. Georgetown is the best offensive team in the country, but their defense is avg (again for this group). They could very well win it all.

KU is my pick and they could lose in the first rd. Their coach is a stubborn idiot that won't exploit their athletic strengths and press teams when he should. They play stupid at times and waste 3-5 possesions a half, on frustrated shots or unnecessary passes (I am not counting turnovers caused by defensive pressure, these are unforced errors). They sometimes are unprepared to play certain teams they don't deem worthy (i.e. Oral Roberts) or let teams they have controlled for 32 minutes back into games (i.e. A & M and Depaul). They don't shoot free throws well. They don't have a go to guy and crunch time. They can't shoot for 5 minutes at a time and have gotten blown out in the first half by a good Texas team, twice.

Yet, they still won both games. They are damn good, all things considered. They can go 8 deep and not really lose much in quality. They have the best defense in the country. It is better than UNC's which is second. It is so good, that the difference between KU and UNC is greater than the difference between UNC and Ohio St. the 12th best defensive team in the country. KU is playing better than anyone coming into the tournament over the last 10 games and over the entire season they are ranked anywhere from 2-5 according the various computer models. Their offense which was their achilles heel last year is much better this year, still only avg. so this is still a concern. Last year's three Final Four teams from the major conferences LSU, UCLA, and Florida were #3, 4, and 5 in Def. Eff. Florida had the best offense of the three, so they won. UCLA was second and they came in second. George Mason was a fluke in this respect, but their def. was still ranked #18. Iowa and KU were first and second last year, but their offenses were weak, Iowa's was actually anemic.

Disclaimer, I am KU fan and much of KU's strength may in truth be a mirage disguised by the awfulness of the B-12, KU was just the best of a bad bunch but not the elite team.

For the computer rankings I used these websites.

Offense/Def Eff., overall rankings

http://kenpom.com/rate.php?y=2007

Last 10 games, overall rankings

http://teamrankings.com/ncb/16powerratings.php3

Florida has tough matchups?

I think Florida by far has the easiest road of any top seed. The two seed in their bracket is a Wisconsin team who lost a start to injury only days ago, and has slipped from their early season high. Oregon is inconsistent, and relies far to much on the 3 to ever realistically entertain thoughts of the final 4. And while Maryland is nothing to sneeze at, they have no one above 6-9 and can't matchup with the interior size of Florida.

Contrast that by Kansas, who got stuck with the best 2 seed in the tourney and has to play them IN their home state to boot. Yikes.

UNC is in the toughest bracket of the entire tourney, and Ohio St is in a bracket that plays to their biggest weakness: they have big time trouble against quick high scoring teams. AKA their entire bracket!

Florida got a comparable cake walk all the way to the Final 4 if you ask me.

Heck, even if the game is close, all Florida has to do is send Noah to center court and tell him to dance, everyone will be too stunned to play.

My chances at winning fall on VT's shoulders today...

I agree to a degree, but Florida potentially has to match up with Maryland. Maryland should give them a tough game, but I think it comes down to Florida's frontcourt. Then they could play Wisconsin in St. Louis (Badger Nation will be in force). Wisconsin really hasn't lost much to Butch's injury. I thought they would, but the statistics don't show a drop off. Since the injury, they played OSU tough at home and beat Michigan St. I think the big loss to OSU in the B-10 championship game was due more to Wisconsin not having much depth compared to OSU (3rd game in 3 days). Then Florida gets KU/UCLA potentially in the Final Four. That is much more challenging than last year when Georgetown was the only team of that caliber they faced in those games. 'Nova was done, I was suprised they didn't go out in the earlier rds and Mason was a nice story, but they made the FF and were satisfied. Florida got 2 easy victories in the Elite 8 and Final 4. This year they could have to work for two of those games just to get to the FF and then face a team that already beat them, and has improved much since that meeting. Florida won all their games last year, except for Georgetown by 14+ pts. I don't think they get that easy ride this year.

I guess it just all depdends how you feel about Wisconsin. I don't think Marylland has the size to even challenge Florida, and I am not to high on Wisconsin. I actually think Florida's road will be Maryland > ND, not Maryland > Wisconsin.

Either way ... go UNLV.

I have Wisconsin losing in the second round. They may even have some trouble tonight given how offensively challenged they are. They really have to rely on their defense.

How about them Virginia. Even though a lot of ACC teams got favorable seedings that people don't think deserve and were picking for upset special, so far they have represented well except for us (well, at least VCU is the best of the bunch). And GT has come back.

I agree Florida has an easy road to the Final Four, as Maryland is not consistent or experienced enough. I have Kansas losing to UCLA since like last year, UCLA will have the home court advantage, and UNC losing to Texas. I think this will be another Carmelo Anthony year where either Texas or Ohio State will win the championship.

Xiayun,

I agree with everything you said except your point about the national champion. I think Florida or UCLA wins it all. Outside chance of OSU.

I have Texas in the final four, but that's where their run ends as they just don't have enough of a supporting cast.

So we have the same final four.

Even the 7th seeds are all holding up. Can't believe, by the end of the day, Duke may be the only higher-seeded team losing except for the 8-9 matchup (which is a tossup to begin with).

I should have also mentioned, that I have a bias against UVA. They could make the sweet 16, because Tennesee has not shown itself to be a good team on the road.

GA Tech got screwed in the last minute. The UNLV player fouled the GT player around the 1:10 mark and the 5 second violation was only 3 seconds, 4 seconds at the most according to the game clock. The officials suck, now that I have DVR

Regular season road and NCAA tourney road is two different things though.

I really think Tenn could be a sleeper.

Oh and my bracket is heavily dependent on ND winning today.

The foul was at the 1:20 mark when the UNLV player went over the back, they scored around the 1:10. I am not sure about the 5 second rule. If it starts from the point of not attacking towards the basket, it was at most 4 seconds. If it starts once the player is behind the semi-line then it wasn't even 3 seconds. I wish someone would explain it better. I got a technical when I used to coach for that call.

It took me about 30 seconds before i realized you were talking to yourself.

I had a rough morning. My Albany pick blew up in my face. I really thought (and still do think) that UVA was massively overrated. GT got robbed by some shoddy officiating, and I had them going to the Sweet 16.

Corpus Cristi starts off on a 7-0 run.

10-0 run!!

Corpus Christ all the way!

It's going to be tough. Winthrop is pretty good.

Told ya Wisconsin sucked!

Long Beach State is hanging with Tennessee.