opending day to total multipler comparisons

with batman multiplier: 287 million
with kong multiplier: 504 million (yeah right)
with war of world multiplier: 230 million
with spidey 2 multiplier: 195 million

a multiplier in between wotw and batman shold be expected.wotw got 11.1; batman got 13.6

so id say a 12. maybe 12.5

12=252 million
12.5 =262.5

12 probably because this should have a bigger opening week then wotw, plus it has kids, and though this has pirates, war compitition over the whole month was much bigger.

http://www.clickthecity.com/cityscope/?p=1181

if thats how it is everywhere,300 million overseas gross here we come!

Um, no. If anything, it'll be between Spider-Man II (another comic book flick that opened on the same weekend) and War of the Worlds (frontloaded, opened same weekend), not a comic book film with some of the best WOM in recent years.

spidey 2 would be a ridiculous comparison; it burnt off so much steam opening day. it ow was 2.2 times as big as its opening day. that is saying supermans gonna have a 46.2 million opening weekend with the same "multiplier"...thats ridiculous,zingaling and you now. batmans ow had a 3.2 to its opening day, superman should do similar.

I never said it was going to have the same multiplier. I said that it's more logicial that the opening day to total gross multiplier being between Spider-Man II and War of the Worlds than being closer to Batman Begins, which is also ridiculous.

I expect around $90-95 million 5-day.

your foregetting a certain film thats opening in its 2nd wknd that will make it fall 65%+ anyway anywhere between 195m-215m sounds good

Well, it opened even lower than what I expected. With natural frontloadedness thanks to being a superhero movie, mixed WOM similar to WOTW, Pirates 2 in it's second weekend, and the fact that it's a holiday weekend in death 2006, I seriously don't think this movie will last on the scene very long.

didnt you predict 17 million opening day??

Nah, that was MG Casey.

I had 25.5 mil in this thread, the Wednesday number 22.

well, atleast this ist being viewed as dissapointing by the public.

http://imdb.com/news/sb/2006-06-29/#2

expect warners to release a statement with the actuals soon.

I don't think most people consider it a disappointment at all. It fell right in line with the realistic expectations of under $250 million, but over $200 million (which I think it'll do, even if some don't).

You just think people here are calling it a disappointment because we're all laughing at how unrealistic some of your (and other fanatics') predictions were for this film.

zing i predicted 22.5 mil.

excel, that's your most recent prediction. For months and months, you've been shoving down people's throats that the film is being really underestimated and that it was a lock for $250 million total.

It never, ever was. That's the entire point. And now you're trying to twist it too, unsuccessfully, projecting the legs to be much better than what's reasonable for a frontloaded comic book film on a holiday weekend.

When will peopole get this. it not a hard concept at all. it really isnt.

Just because a film is a comic book film doesnt mean itll be frontloaded. The only GOOD comic book film to be frontloaded was xmen 2. x3 was but noone slooked at like it was good. no good comci book film that was a franchise starterlike superman returns has ever been frontloded.

and they are all SEQUELS.

Superman is not a sequel in the publics eye. why would it be frontloaded??? ive tried to get more realistic every day, and im being realistic when i say its a franchise starter. meaning it has a "catch it if i can" type thing with the public, as opposed to a "rush out and see it" type of thing a sequel has.

21 million on a wednesday for a non sequel is fantastic, its amazing if you consider it would have gotten 28-30 million had it still opened on a friday.

im not spinning the opening; im saying people are under estimating the legs. right now is far tooe arly for haters or fanboys to claim victory over superman.

This is the same "get to it when I can" film you said was a lock to open to $90 million (when it was a Friday release). Films that are "get to it when I can" don't open to $90 million. It's because the opening day was a little lower that you're saying this.

As for the difference between "good" and "bad"? That's not something where your opinion on the film matters.

F4? X-Men? Hellboy?

Really, there are only a few original superhero films. Since you can't count the original Batman or Superman as the 1970s and 1980s are too hard to compare to today, Spider-Man is the only "good" superhero movie that wasn't frontloaded. That had amazing WOM and the marketplace was completley empty, so the situation does not apply. 2006 is so different than the year it was released, that almost makes up the difference itself.

zing i told you. i know what i said before but i dont think that way any more. when isee the movie for myself i make my final prediction on its legs. itll fall to 9-10 million on thursday friday and saturday and possibly sunday are all gonna be bigger then wednesday was. w.b. care less bout the 5 day n more bout the 7 day which is looking for 125 million+.

Ah, I see. You know what WB cares about. Shouldn't you have had the numbers first this morning, excel, since you're the unofficial representative?

But, anyways, all you're doing is adjusting the legs to $250 million total. Doesn't matter if it had a $80 million 5-day or less, your prediction for the legs would increase anyways.

im not a representive. it said so in the article at yahoo that they cared about the 7 day.

Its called studio spinning, excel.

If it makes the projected 60-65 mill this weekend, and then it drops a moderate 55% next weekend (should drop about 60), then you are talking about a gross of about 115-120 after 10 days. Then when it drops about 45% the next weekend, you have it at about 145-150. Where does the 200 come from here? I might have gone low with my projection of about 177, but I'll be closer to that number than you are to your 250.

Summer weekdays will push this film pass $200 million.

It will cross 200 million easily unless it gets a Batman opening.

Exactly.

PEACE, Mike.

$47M weekend, $160M finish.