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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32635
Location: the last free city
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:34 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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Magnus101 wrote: Killuminati510 wrote: I love that because most people think the movie will make a reasonable 200m-220 and that PotC is gonna beat it that we are either haters or PotC2 fanboys. I have no beef with anyone predicting in that 200m-250m range because that is reasonable(though I think it will become unreasonable as June 30th comes closer, but as of now, its reasonable). My beef is with the sub-200m folks because at this point, that is just ridiclous.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 3:20 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32635
Location: the last free city
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BKB_The_Man wrote: Magnus101 wrote: Killuminati510 wrote: I love that because most people think the movie will make a reasonable 200m-220 and that PotC is gonna beat it that we are either haters or PotC2 fanboys. I have no beef with anyone predicting in that 200m-250m range because that is reasonable(though I think it will become unreasonable as June 30th comes closer, but as of now, its reasonable). My beef is with the sub-200m folks because at this point, that is just ridiclous. Ridiculous = BKB boxoffice predictions. 
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| Tue May 30, 2006 10:35 am |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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Er... I think BKB's pretty close to right on this one, actually. I haven't heard a reaction to any of the Superman trailers. When you can't get a packed house of comic fans at X-Men on opening night to chatter about Superman Returns when a trailer hits, you might have a problem.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 11:09 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Superman just isn't as cool or exciting as Batman, Spider-Man, or any of the X-Men characters. Months ago, I was expecting a lot from this. But hence, I think it will be just mediocre. I'm thinking $58M/$160M right now, which is a shame. Nearly everyone knows of Superman, but I just don't sense that many care about seeing the movie.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 11:18 am |
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baumer72
Mod Team Leader
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm
Posts: 7087
Location: Crystal Lake
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Look at it this way, if Superman opens to 45 mill, would you think it was a bad prediction then? I could easily see the film opening to:
Friday:15 mill
Saturday 17.25 (15% increase)
Sunday 15.1 (22%decrease)
This is a 47.4 mill weekend, very possible. If you give it very good legs, let's say 3.5 multiplier, then you have 165 mill. Now if you give it just average to good legs of about 3, then you have 140-145 mill.
That is how I see it. Where you are getting this massive blitzkrieg of demand for the film is nothing but a pipedream. I just don't see it or feel it.
Final prediction:
47 mill opening.
141 mill total.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 11:40 am |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm
Posts: 11035
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120/400
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| Tue May 30, 2006 12:27 pm |
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mdana
Veteran
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 11:07 pm
Posts: 3004
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I don't know, I mean its freakin' SUPERMAN!!!! The trailer looked pretty good to me, I am interested. I would think between $200-250m seems about right for the time being. I would like to see the tracking numbers for it. I don't think POTC2 will kill it although it will impact it enough that it won't be a uber blockbuster even if it is fantastic.
Baumer's opening is too low. Even Batman Begins had a bigger opening weekend and it opened on a Wednesday. I wouldn't rule out something in the mid 50s, which if that happened would not lead to $200+m, because it just won't have the legs to have a 3.65 multiplier.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 12:45 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32635
Location: the last free city
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baumer72 wrote: Look at it this way, if Superman opens to 45 mill, would you think it was a bad prediction then? I could easily see the film opening to:
Friday:15 mill
Saturday 17.25 (15% increase)
Sunday 15.1 (22%decrease)
This is a 47.4 mill weekend, very possible. If you give it very good legs, let's say 3.5 multiplier, then you have 165 mill. Now if you give it just average to good legs of about 3, then you have 140-145 mill.
That is how I see it. Where you are getting this massive blitzkrieg of demand for the film is nothing but a pipedream. I just don't see it or feel it.
Final prediction:
47 mill opening.
141 mill total. You're outta your flipping mind.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 12:46 pm |
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tina_als_girl
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 3:43 pm
Posts: 2252
Location: Wellsville, MO
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Okay, I'll bite:
Meh. Yuck.
Superman's eyes "welling up"? 
Sounds like a frickin' fan fiction written by a 13-year-old who watches the OC.
Joy
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| Tue May 30, 2006 1:22 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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In a sold-out theater full of X-Men fans, the Superman trailer evoked only a handful of grunts. This is a very bad sign, IMO.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 1:27 pm |
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The Dark Shape
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:56 am
Posts: 12119
Location: Adrift in L.A.
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I'm going to make my first real prediction:
55/190
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| Tue May 30, 2006 1:37 pm |
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Erendis
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Oct 28, 2004 9:40 am
Posts: 1527
Location: Emyn Arnen
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There just doesn't seem to be any demand for this. Superman is, like, SOO 20th century. Get with the program.
In fact, this reminds me a lot of King Kong. Kong was old news too and it got only, what, $210M? I didn't even care enough to track it. Trade Superman's summer weekdays for the Jackson name, and SR and Kong will have similar runs. Throw in Pirates to kill the 2nd weekend, and SR is now hovering around $200M.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 1:38 pm |
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tina_als_girl
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sun May 15, 2005 3:43 pm
Posts: 2252
Location: Wellsville, MO
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Okay, I don't think I've actually done any real predicting in the year I've been on here, so here's my first real prediction (and my predicting skills probably suck--I'm not a fan of numbers, so bear with me):
$75.3m OW
$243m total
Joy
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:01 pm |
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baumer72
Mod Team Leader
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm
Posts: 7087
Location: Crystal Lake
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Actually, I'll revise it. The legs should be decent.
47
163
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Brick Tamland: Yeah, there were horses, and a man on fire, and I killed a guy with a trident.
Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:02 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
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baumer72 wrote: Actually, I'll revise it. The legs should be decent.
47
163 get batman outta your head already. 
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:12 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:28 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40601
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God, all those pictures from page 46 on are hilarious.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:41 pm |
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hp17
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Sat May 27, 2006 4:54 pm
Posts: 54
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people predicting this movie making less than $70 million, which i think is the absolute minimum this one can do for opening weekend, should go outside a little bit more and take a fresh air and stop watching too many times batman begins. the opening for batman begins is tatooed to these people thinking superman returns will do same.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:43 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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Um you have no evidence or example to back up your argument that 70 million is the absolute minimum. At least when MAgnus and Excel argue their point, they try to bring examples
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:46 pm |
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hp17
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Sat May 27, 2006 4:54 pm
Posts: 54
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Bret Ratner is the best wrote: Um you have no evidence or example to back up your argument that 70 million is the absolute minimum i dont need to have evidence. it's common sense.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:47 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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hp17 wrote: Bret Ratner is the best wrote: Um you have no evidence or example to back up your argument that 70 million is the absolute minimum i dont need to have evidence. it's common sense. So this is like the same argument "because its superman"
um right..
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:49 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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 Common sense, thats something all you SR fanboys lack ALOT of.
This guy writes just like Excel. Second coming of Excel? Couldnt stay out for long it looks like. _________________ "People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:49 pm |
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hp17
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Sat May 27, 2006 4:54 pm
Posts: 54
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Bret Ratner is the best wrote: hp17 wrote: Bret Ratner is the best wrote: Um you have no evidence or example to back up your argument that 70 million is the absolute minimum i dont need to have evidence. it's common sense. So this is like the same argument "because its superman" um right.. did i say that? dont assume something it's not....
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:50 pm |
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hp17
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Sat May 27, 2006 4:54 pm
Posts: 54
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Killuminati510 wrote: :hahaha: Common sense, thats something all you SR fanboys lack ALOT of.
This guy writes just like Excel. Second coming of Excel? Couldnt stay out for long it looks like. i think all haters lack that as well.
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| Tue May 30, 2006 2:52 pm |
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