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 The Dark Knight Thread 
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Extraordinary

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excel wrote:
geez, batman 1 2 3 were all HUGE


Yeah, Batman is the only franchise to ever break the opening weekend record 3 times consecutively, Batman did it in 89, Batman Begins did it in 92, and Batman Forever did it in 95.


Sat May 27, 2006 11:50 pm
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85/235

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Sun May 28, 2006 8:29 am
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Superfreak
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a lot will depend on quality, i thnk. expectations will be huge.


Sun May 28, 2006 12:58 pm
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Extraordinary

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Magnus101 wrote:
Worst-case
85m / 250m

Most likely case right now
90m / 280m


Best case
100m / 350m

OW range: 85m-100m
Total range: 250m-350m

It'll be a mega-blockbuster for sure. Whether its a uber depends on marketing, WOM, and competition, which is all unknown at this point.


Considering Batman at its peak (Batman Forever) would be under that, I don't think $85 m is the worst case.


Sun May 28, 2006 1:59 pm
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Extraordinary

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Magnus101 wrote:
O wrote:
Magnus101 wrote:
Worst-case
85m / 250m

Most likely case right now
90m / 280m


Best case
100m / 350m

OW range: 85m-100m
Total range: 250m-350m

It'll be a mega-blockbuster for sure. Whether its a uber depends on marketing, WOM, and competition, which is all unknown at this point.


Considering Batman at its peak (Batman Forever) would be under that, I don't think $85 m is the worst case.


BF broke the OW record at its time. It got a multiplier of 3.5(with not so good WOM juding by ratings online and just general response from people today). Blockbusters these days with no so good WOM don't get 3.5 multipliers. Its opening was HUGE at the time.

If released on a Friday, BB opening would have been 55m about. X-men had a 54.5m OW, and X2 got a 85m OW. BB has A LOT better WOM than X-men and has developed a bigger following than X-men did. Its opening at the worst will be X2 OW.

I mean, just look at how its climbed on the IMDB 250, or how its stayed on the yahoo buzz chart for so long. BB has a huge fanbase now.


Yes, I agree that it will open big, but $85 m as worst case scenario? I don't think that's the case. Worst case, is more like $65 m or less.


Sun May 28, 2006 2:17 pm
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batman forever is a huge hype machine. it had 2 number one hit single music videos (picture spiderman having 2 "hero" sized music hits and ya got it) by u2 and seal that produced TONS TONS TONS of hype among the teenage crowd that fallen out of it due to batman returns. that and shumacher gave it a refreshinly cool feel, and its incredible casts of teenage heart throbs (val kilmer and chris odonnel), global super stars (tommy lee jones, JIM CARREY at his peak), and a sexy starlett(nicole kidman)....the movie for 1995 SCREAMED cool and it still has one of the best trailers ive think ive ever seen given a movie period of of time. teenagers made batman the mega hit it would become. it was the biggest film of the year.


Sun May 28, 2006 2:44 pm
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WOM was as good as could be. The only thing I wonder is whether the audience might be slightly limited compared to the likes of POTC, Spider-Man, and even X-Men due to it being dark. It doesn't quite have the kids, but I think the sequel will nearly have as many women as men, unlike the last one.

Still, massive potential:

133m/340m

It doesn't matter how great the legs for BB were though, it will be frontloaded.


Mon May 29, 2006 1:40 am
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It wouldn't make a difference if they released it in September and it somehow had tons of competition.


Mon May 29, 2006 1:53 am
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Magnus101 wrote:
DP07 wrote:
It wouldn't make a difference if they released it in September and it somehow had tons of competition.


Release date is key. Holiday boost or no holiday boost would affect it. And yes, it may be possible it gets a Memorial Day or July 4th release date. X3 did awesome with Memorial Day, SM2 did awesome with July 4th. WB may copy one of those two.


Holidays affect films like this the least. Reloaded didn't, and TDVC isn't showing much of an impact, while GOF wasn't assisted as much as others by Thanksgiving. Besides, it largely shifts grosses around from other days/weeks. It has a marginal impact. Really for a franchise film it's 95% about how much pent-up demand there is.


Mon May 29, 2006 2:08 am
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I happen to be watching Batman Begins right now!

Sequel: $115/$295

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Mon May 29, 2006 2:13 am
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Star Trek XI

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Why was this thread started so early. This thing is 2 years away. We still got a year left until Spiderman 3 and torture waiting for that.


Mon May 29, 2006 2:18 am
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Magnus101 wrote:
DP07 wrote:
Magnus101 wrote:
DP07 wrote:
It wouldn't make a difference if they released it in September and it somehow had tons of competition.


Release date is key. Holiday boost or no holiday boost would affect it. And yes, it may be possible it gets a Memorial Day or July 4th release date. X3 did awesome with Memorial Day, SM2 did awesome with July 4th. WB may copy one of those two.


Holidays affect films like this the least. Reloaded didn't, and TDVC isn't showing much of an impact, while GOF wasn't assisted as much as others by Thanksgiving. Besides, it largely shifts grosses around from other days/weeks. It has a marginal impact. Really for a franchise film it's 95% about how much pent-up demand there is.


If it got a July 4th release, it would most likely be released on a Wed.(July 1st). That would affect its opening.

And Memorial Day would affect its opening. X3 would not have gotten that low Sunday drop(and may have even gotten a higher Saturday drop) without Memorial Day.


No, its saturday drop would be lower if not for memorial day. Look at TDVC, OTH, or Shrek 2 and sith from other years. The sat increases are lower because grosses are moved to Sun and Mon. Anyway, it would earn at most 6m more on the 3 day weekend because of MD, not more then marginal, and a drop of it's 250m total.


Mon May 29, 2006 2:23 am
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rumor is w.b. looks to claim the may 17th weekend ala matrix reloaded.


Mon May 29, 2006 2:28 am
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I wonder if WB is still planning to do 2 sequels in 1 year deal.

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Mon May 29, 2006 3:04 am
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Wall-E

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How much did Tomrrow Never Dies increase over Goldeneye. I think that's a reasonable comparison.


Mon May 29, 2006 3:12 am
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Magnus101 wrote:
DP07 wrote:
Magnus101 wrote:
DP07 wrote:
Magnus101 wrote:
DP07 wrote:
It wouldn't make a difference if they released it in September and it somehow had tons of competition.


Release date is key. Holiday boost or no holiday boost would affect it. And yes, it may be possible it gets a Memorial Day or July 4th release date. X3 did awesome with Memorial Day, SM2 did awesome with July 4th. WB may copy one of those two.


Holidays affect films like this the least. Reloaded didn't, and TDVC isn't showing much of an impact, while GOF wasn't assisted as much as others by Thanksgiving. Besides, it largely shifts grosses around from other days/weeks. It has a marginal impact. Really for a franchise film it's 95% about how much pent-up demand there is.


If it got a July 4th release, it would most likely be released on a Wed.(July 1st). That would affect its opening.

And Memorial Day would affect its opening. X3 would not have gotten that low Sunday drop(and may have even gotten a higher Saturday drop) without Memorial Day.


No, its saturday drop would be lower if not for memorial day. Look at TDVC, OTH, or Shrek 2 and sith from other years. The sat increases are lower because grosses are moved to Sun and Mon. Anyway, it would earn at most 6m more on the 3 day weekend because of MD, not more then marginal, and a drop of it's 250m total.


Fine. Memorial Day has no effect.

But July 4th does, and honestly that would be the holiday spot BB probably would take as WB is releasing SR on that spot, and I think IJ4 will take Memorial Day(since IJ2 and IJ3 got Memorial day too, keep tradition going) so BB2 will be left wiht July 4th.

Point is, if it gets July 4th, it affects its opening as we're most likely talking about a 5-day opening.


Well yeah, obviously I was assuming a Friday opening. ;)


Mon May 29, 2006 3:29 am
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Skyblade wrote:
How much did Tomrrow Never Dies increase over Goldeneye. I think that's a reasonable comparison.


why?

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Mon May 29, 2006 11:00 pm
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both were wellr ecieved restarts.


that said, it increased 25% whiling opening against a little movie called titanic. a 25% increase would give batman 250.


Mon May 29, 2006 11:05 pm
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Extraordinary

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Lol, some of you guys are really overpredicting it.Look at the dvd sales, they were good but not huge(it sold about 7mill), it doesnt lead me to believe BB has a huge fanbase to make it open to 85mill+.


Mon May 29, 2006 11:08 pm
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Opening Weekend
BB - $48,745,440
BB2 - $75,000,000
over 50% increase. :2thumbsup:

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Mon May 29, 2006 11:14 pm
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neo_wolf wrote:
Lol, some of you guys are really overpredicting it.Look at the dvd sales, they were good but not huge(it sold about 7mill), it doesnt lead me to believe BB has a huge fanbase to make it open to 85mill+.


it sold 7 million from october to december and worldwide sold 12million. i think its safe to assume its got more, plus it cleaned house in rentals.


Mon May 29, 2006 11:26 pm
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neo_wolf wrote:
Lol, some of you guys are really overpredicting it.Look at the dvd sales, they were good but not huge(it sold about 7mill), it doesnt lead me to believe BB has a huge fanbase to make it open to 85mill+.


X-Men sold 6.1m video and dvd's in 2000
X2 sold 6m
Batman Begins sold 6.8m

X2 - $214.9m
BB- $205.3m


Mon May 29, 2006 11:27 pm
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neo_wolf wrote:
Lol, some of you guys are really overpredicting it.Look at the dvd sales, they were good but not huge(it sold about 7mill), it doesnt lead me to believe BB has a huge fanbase to make it open to 85mill+.


DVD sales for blockbusters are declining as the market has shifted in favor of genre movies. Even ROTS sold less then AOTC with higher BO and better WOM. A 300m film these days can sell fewer copies then BB, so it's number is great.


Tue May 30, 2006 12:05 am
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Its sales are excellent. And I think that it being an adult skewing franchise now could help or hurt it. I don't think the breakout potential is that strong--everyone knows who Batman is, you're either going to be into the concept or not. That the second one was so well-received seriously allows some growing to happen, but this isn't the Matrix or Shrek, which were surprise hits the first time around.


Tue May 30, 2006 6:52 pm
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Skyblade wrote:
Its sales are excellent. And I think that it being an adult skewing franchise now could help or hurt it. I don't think the breakout potential is that strong--everyone knows who Batman is, you're either going to be into the concept or not. That the second one was so well-received seriously allows some growing to happen, but this isn't the Matrix or Shrek, which were surprise hits the first time around.


But it reestablishes the franchise as a force as though Batman & Robin doesnt exist anymore, you have to treat it now as a regular Batman franchise since the bad stigma wont exist anymore


Tue May 30, 2006 6:58 pm
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