December 10th-12th will, without a doubt, be a killer weekend. Two big sequels are opening on that weekend. On the one hand, we have another entry in the Marvel-based bloodsucker franchise and on the other hand we have the star-packed sequel to a remake of a lighthearted Frank Sinatra heist flick.

Obviously, Ocean's Twelve will perform better than Blade: Trinity as it is rated PG-13, has many huge stars and a well-liked predecessor that has made over $180 million. However, I still think that both movies, despite their different target audiences will somewhat affect each other. Let me analyze both movies:


Ocean's Twelve is a sequel to a huge hit from 2001. The original got great reviews and was very well-received. The forumla of a lighthearted fun movie with many stars worked. And as the saying goes, never change a winning team. All the stars are back for the sequel and many others have joined like Vincent Cassel and Catherine Zeta-Jones. There are also cameos by Peter Fonda and Bruce Willis to be expected. So far, we didn't see much of the marketing, but I expect a marketing blitz to come upon us very soon. The buzz is good and there is nothing really that will stand in this movie's way to become a huge hit. The original had the highest December opening ever back in 2001 and Ocean's Twelve is sure to open bigger. However, it will also be somewhat more frontloaded, I think.


Blade: Trinity is the third entry in the franchise. Its predecessor were usually well-liked even if not amazingly reviewed movies. The second movie outdid the first, but not by much. The marketing for this one has been good so far and the additions of young stars like Ryan Reynolds and Jessica Biel can only help it. Furthermore, opening this movie on a Wednesday will help it a lot, as it will have time to earn a some money before Ocean's Twelve arrives. However, Ocean's Twelve will hurt it, as it is obviously more anticipated and I think many people who don't go often to cinemas will choose O12 over Blade: Trinity. Also it seems weird to see a movie like Blade: Trinity released in winter, especially around Christmas time. Blade just comes across as a summer fun kind of a movie. The studio probably hopes for some help from the holiday season.

Overall, I think that Blade: Trinity will be the one that will get hurt more in this Clash of Titans. Once again, it will fail to hit the $100 million mark,as did both of its predecessors. Ocean's Twelve might just get hurt slightly in its opening weekend, but it will make up for it later.

My predictions:

Blade: Trinity:

Opening weekend (5-day) - $44.5 million

Total gross - $91 million

Ocean's Twelve:

Opening weekend - $50.5 million

Total gross - $197 million

Blade Trinity

Opening- $40.0 (5-day)
Total- $95.0

Ocean's Twelve

Opening- $58.0
Total- $197.2

i dont remember my predictions!, but this is a easy win for Ocean's Twelve

Hey, we predict pretty much the same for O12's total....You predictions-thief!!!

Blade: Trinity
Opening: $33.0
Total: $79.0

Ocean's Twelve
Opening: $60.0
Total: $220.0

I really thinking Ocean's 12 can go higher. Look at Bourne Supremacy. 50 million opening from a 120 million movie. Using ratios, that would give Ocean's Twelve a $76.25 million opening.

Well, my prediction is a whole .2 higher than yours, and I'm predicting slighty worse legs than you. Eat that. :wink:

Hey, everyone, the Ocean's Twelve trailer is out at Yahoo! Movies.

It was pretty good too!

Blade 3
51m 5-day
80-90m total

O12
58m
188m

That's STILL a painful release date for Blade:Trinity. I mean, look it could have opened last week against Team America... hindsight is...

Ok, I'll now predict that I expect Blade: Trinity to edge out O12 for the 3 day and for the total. The TV spots for Blade have been excellent, while those for O12 have been very poor.

Blade: Trinity:
Wed-Thu - 20.5m
3 day - 32m
5 day - 52.5m
Total - 102m

O12:
3 day - 31m
Total - 94m

Lackluster reviews so far for O12. Reviews wont really matter much for a film like Blade Trinity but they do in some sense for O12. Your prediction is very gutsy but in a sense I think the movie will definately be overpredicted

Results:

1. Ocean's Twelve - $39,153,380
2. Blade: Trinity - $16,061,271 - $24,484,815


Looks like most of us overpredicted oth, in particular Blade: Trinity.

Since the case with this thread is done, I'll probably turn it into a Blade: Trinity Tracking Thread. What do you think?