Weekend Estimates - Top 12
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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Lords of Dogtown definately proves that Heath Ledger is thr reigning king of Box office poison. What is this? His 5th or 6ht movie in a role that bombed and made less than its budget
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 1:53 pm |
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Christian
Team Kris
Joined: Thu Oct 28, 2004 5:02 pm
Posts: 27584
Location: The Damage Control Table
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Hehe, JLo and JFo still chugging along...
So how many weeks has the box office been down against last year's number?  _________________A hot man once wrote: Urgh, I have to throw out half my underwear because it's too tight.
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 1:55 pm |
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Chris Springob
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 9:27 pm
Posts: 73
Location: Macquarie Park, NSW, Australia
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A few quick points:
- Madagascar dropped 39% and still managed to rise from 3rd place to 1st place. That's a pretty rare occurence.
- For the Top 12 total according to BOM, this is the weakest weekend we've had in either June or July since the weekend of July 4-6, 2003.
- Last year there was only one weekend during the May-June-July months in which there were no movies grossing more than $30 million. Same goes for 2003. This year, that's already happened three times in just the first five weeks of May-June!
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 1:56 pm |
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MGKC
---------
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
Posts: 11808
Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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Chris Springob wrote: - For the Top 12 total according to BOM, this is the weakest weekend we've had in either June or July since the weekend of July 4-6, 2003. That's surprising considering it was coming off of a huge weekend AND 3 movies are still above $25 million.
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 1:58 pm |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm
Posts: 16061
Location: The Damage Control Table
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Not a good week for the new entries. None of them even cracked the top three. I don't usually see that happening.
On a sad note, my official losing streak may be over seeing as how Lords of Dogtown is kind of performing like I predicted if I remember correctly.
Damn....
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 2:00 pm |
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jb007
Veteran
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:47 pm
Posts: 3917
Location: Las Vegas
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dolcevita wrote: Not a good week for the new entries. None of them even cracked the top three. I don't usually see that happening.
On a sad note, my official losing streak may be over seeing as how Lords of Dogtown is kind of performing like I predicted if I remember correctly.
Damn.... Damn is right. Now you are not the Cubs of predictions anymore. :wink:
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 2:09 pm |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm
Posts: 16061
Location: The Damage Control Table
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jb007 wrote:
Damn is right. Now you are not the Cubs of predictions anymore. :wink:
Maybe it'll have long legs?
For goodness sake. My reputation is on the line here.
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 2:12 pm |
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jb007
Veteran
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:47 pm
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Location: Las Vegas
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dolcevita wrote: jb007 wrote:
Damn is right. Now you are not the Cubs of predictions anymore. :wink:
Maybe it'll have long legs? For goodness sake. My reputation is on the line here. If you end up being right this time, then you can be the anamoly like Neo (Based on that you will not repeat this winning prediction again)
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 2:15 pm |
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Spidey
Teenage Dream
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:13 pm
Posts: 10678
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Horrible multiplier for Lords of Dogtown. That movie is very frontloaded.
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 2:24 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35206
Location: Minnesota
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Very nice for MADAGASCAR! I still say it will get to 200 Million.
Both CINDERELLA MAN and PANTS did a tad disappointing, but still not bad. Both will have great legs.
LORDS OF DOGTOWN did surprisingly solid for the kind of movie it is. It will still likely only get to around 15 Million or so, but that's better than it could have been.
CRASH had another great hold! I predicted a gross of 3.3 Million for this weekend and I was dead-on. It's now at about 41 Million. Here's hoping it can get to 50 Million. It's definitely possible since it should play solidly until hitting DVD (it will go on through the discount theaters eventually, where it should do pretty well).
SAVING FACE continues to do excellent!
WALK ON WATER crossed 2 Million, which is solid for it!
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 2:32 pm |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm
Posts: 16061
Location: The Damage Control Table
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Mike wrote:
WALK ON WATER crossed 2 Million, which is solid for it!
Great movie. But I'm surprised at its legs due to the content. But its actually not heavy-handed, so maybe more people are checking it out than I expected would this late in its release.
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 2:43 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am
Posts: 11130
Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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You gotta be kidding me, Dogtown dropped almost 30% on Saturday? Man, thats gonna mess up my derby.
_________________ "People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 2:54 pm |
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Kris K
Horror Hound
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:44 pm
Posts: 6228
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Heath Ledger's MAGICAL box office history!!!
Lords of Dogtown $5,700,000 (Opening, from 1.8k theatres.)
Ned Kelly $86,959 ($1,986 average in 22 screens, -65.1% weekend 2.)
The Order $7,660,806 (debuted at 1,975 theaters, $2,247 average. -74.3% second weekend drop)
The Four Feathers $18,306,166- (Cost $60M.)
4 bombs in a row.
Last Hits:
Monster's Ball $31,273,922 ($44,909,486 WW....budget: $4 million)
A Knight's Tale $56,569,702 2,980 $16,511,391 ($117,487,473 WW)
The Patriot $113,330,342 3,061 $22,413,710 ($215,294,342 WW)
10 Things I Hate About You $38,178,166 ($53,478,166 WW)
Coming Soon:
Casanova BV 12/25/05
Brokeback Mountain Focus 12/9/05
The Brothers Grimm Dim. 8/26/05
Hmmmm.... BROTHERS GRIMM and BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN could turn things around. CASANOVA probably wont.
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 2:58 pm |
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Eagle
Site Owner
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:09 pm
Posts: 14631
Location: Pittsburgh
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Libs wrote: Kingdom of Heaven most likely won't even crack $48M. What a flop. Still will make over 200 million total, on a 130 million production budget. Movies have done worse, and I doubt it ill lose much if any money. _________________
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 6:49 pm |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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 Re: Weekend Estimates - Top 12 Nebs wrote: [table][row color=#FFFF00]Rank[col color=#FFFF00]Movie[col color=#FFFF00]Gross[col color=#FFFF00]Drop[col color=#FFFF00][col color=#FFFF00]PTA[col color=#FFFF00]Total[row]1[col]Madagascar[col]$28.700.000[col]-39,23%[col][col]$6.929[col]$100.967.556[row]2[col]The Longest Yard[col]$26.100.000[col]-45,18%[col][col]$7.182[col]$95.804.254[row]3[col]Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith[col]$26.000.000[col]-52,90%[col][col]$7.123[col]$308.804.625[row color=#C0C0C0]4[col color=#C0C0C0]The Cinderella Man[col color=#C0C0C0]$18.615.000[col color=#C0C0C0]-[col color=#C0C0C0][col color=#C0C0C0]$6.620[col color=#C0C0C0]$18.615.000[row color=#C0C0C0]5[col color=#C0C0C0]The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants[col color=#C0C0C0]$10.245.000[col color=#C0C0C0]-[col color=#C0C0C0][col color=#C0C0C0]$3.966[col color=#C0C0C0]$13.986.809[row color=#C0C0C0]6[col color=#C0C0C0]Lords of Dogtown[col color=#C0C0C0]$5.700.000[col color=#C0C0C0]-[col color=#C0C0C0][col color=#C0C0C0]$3.056[col color=#C0C0C0]$5.700.000[row]7[col]Monster-In-Law[col]$5.300.000[col]-48,26%[col][col]$1.752[col]$70.385.972[row]8[col]Crash[col]$3.300.000[col]-29,16%[col][col]$2.502[col]$40.965.620[row]9[col]Kicking & Screaming[col]$2.102.000[col]-59,03%[col][col]$1.145[col]$47.511.390[row]10[col]Unleashed[col]$890.000[col]-52,82%[col][col]$1.548[col]$23.604.006[row]11[col]The Interpreter[col]$760.000[col]-63,33%[col][col]$1.105[col]$70.366.605[row]12[col]Kingdom of Heaven[col]$625.000[col]-63,05%[col][col]$1.095[col]$46.135.324[row][col][col][col][col][col][col][row color=#000000][col color=#000000]Overall top 12[col color=#000000]$128.337.000[col color=#000000][col color=#000000][col color=#000000]$3.669[col color=#000000][row color=#000000][col color=#000000]Overall top 12 last year[col color=#000000]$182.741.539[col color=#000000][col color=#000000][col color=#000000]$5.060[col color=#000000][row color=#000000][col color=#000000]Difference[col color=#000000]-29,77%[col color=#000000][col color=#000000][col color=#000000]-27,50%[col color=#000000][/table]
[table][row color=#FFFF00]Movie[col color=#FFFF00]Friday[col color=#FFFF00]%Change[col color=#FFFF00]Saturday[col color=#FFFF00]%Change[col color=#FFFF00]Sunday[col color=#FFFF00]%Change[col color=#FFFF00]Multiplier[row]Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith[col]$7.250.000[col]85,74%[col]$10.650.000[col]46,90%[col]$8.100.000[col]-23,94%[col]3,586[row]The Longest Yard[col]$8.850.000[col]156,62%[col]$10.350.000[col]16,95%[col]$6.900.000[col]-33,33%[col]2,949[row color=#C0C0C0]The Cinderella Man[col color=#C0C0C0]$6.000.000[col color=#C0C0C0]-[col color=#C0C0C0]$7.508.000[col color=#C0C0C0]25,13%[col color=#C0C0C0]$5.103.000[col color=#C0C0C0]-32,03%[col color=#C0C0C0]3,103[row color=#C0C0C0]The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants[col color=#C0C0C0]$3.610.000[col color=#C0C0C0]124,73%[col color=#C0C0C0]$3.735.000[col color=#C0C0C0]3,46%[col color=#C0C0C0]$2.900.000[col color=#C0C0C0]-22,36%[col color=#C0C0C0]2,838[row color=#C0C0C0]Lords of Dogtown[col color=#C0C0C0]$2.565.000[col color=#C0C0C0]-[col color=#C0C0C0]$1.800.000[col color=#C0C0C0]-29,82%[col color=#C0C0C0]$1.335.000[col color=#C0C0C0]-25,83%[col color=#C0C0C0]2,222[row]Crash[col]$950.000[col]94,91%[col]$1.500.000[col]57,89%[col]$950.000[col]-36,67%[col]3,474[row]Kicking & Screaming[col]$698.000[col]63,39%[col]$835.000[col]19,63%[col]$569.000[col]-31,86%[col]3,011[row]The Interpreter[col]$230.000[col]86,61%[col]$334.000[col]45,22%[col]$196.000[col]-41,32%[col]3,304[row]Kingdom of Heaven[col]$180.000[col]18,69%[col]$265.000[col]47,22%[col]$180.000[col]-32,08%[col]3,472[/table] 
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| Sun Jun 05, 2005 11:16 pm |
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Moviebuf
Angels & Demons
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 6:44 pm
Posts: 270
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It will get way more than 350 million. It will stabalize after this weekend, and with huge summer weekday numbers it will get to around 390-400 million.
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| Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:29 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Valley Guy 3.0 wrote: Hehe, JLo and JFo still chugging along... So how many weeks has the box office been down against last year's number? 15 weeks, and this weekend is an alarming 30% off from the same period last year. I don't see the trend getting broken anytime soon. _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:36 am |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am
Posts: 11675
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xiayun wrote: Valley Guy 3.0 wrote: Hehe, JLo and JFo still chugging along... So how many weeks has the box office been down against last year's number? 15 weeks, and this weekend is an alarming 30% off from the same period last year. I don't see the trend getting broken anytime soon. Au contraire, I think that this June will be the turning point. Just look at the openers next week. Last year Chronicles of Riddick, Stepford Wives, and Garfield opened to a combined 65 million. Now I think that Mr. and Mrs. Smith and Shark Boy and Lava Girl in 3-D can pass that figure alone (and my Smith prediction is MUCH more conservative then many), though they also have High Tension and The Honeymooners opening which should score an additional 15-20 million combined. Then the week after Dodgeball, The Terminal, and Around the World in 80 Days made a combined 56 million, something which Batman Begins could rise 10-20 million above even with a Wednesday opening. The Perfect Man could lend an extra 7-10 milion as well. Finally on the last weekend of June 2004 Fahrenheit 9/11, White Chicks, The Notebook and Four Brothers made a combined 63 million, which Bewitched, Land of the Dead, and Herbie: Fully Loaded will also almost assuredly beat. Considering a number of the movies opening or that opened this weekend are likely to have very strong holds, I think that this could be the turning point. If not, then there's no way the box office can hold up to last July. While that one was VERY strong, I think this one could be even stronger depending on marketing.
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| Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:20 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am
Posts: 18501
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xiayun wrote: Valley Guy 3.0 wrote: Hehe, JLo and JFo still chugging along... So how many weeks has the box office been down against last year's number? 15 weeks, and this weekend is an alarming 30% off from the same period last year. I don't see the trend getting broken anytime soon.
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| Mon Jun 06, 2005 4:34 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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This weekend or next weekend should end the streak. On the weekend of The Chronicles of Riddick, the weekend total was $153,459,816. That might be beatable this weekend with Mr. and Mrs. Smith plus Shark Boy and Lava Girl 3D.
On the weekend of Dodgeball, the weekend total was $130,587,896. That should be annihilated.
On the weekend of Fahrenheit 9/11, the weekend total was $138,463,321. That should be beaten, too.
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| Mon Jun 06, 2005 6:25 am |
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Erendis
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Oct 28, 2004 9:40 am
Posts: 1527
Location: Emyn Arnen
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MovieDude wrote: [Now I think that Mr. and Mrs. Smith and Shark Boy and Lava Girl in 3-D You lost me right there. I can't imagine anyone walking up to a window and handing over actual cash for something called "Shark Boy and Lava Girl." 
BKB, I don't think people are wacthing movies on their home theatre systems, not this Saturday anyway. After a cold wet spring on the East Coast, this weekend was the first that had nice weather.
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| Mon Jun 06, 2005 12:26 pm |
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Incognito
Star Trek XI
Joined: Thu Jun 02, 2005 8:04 pm
Posts: 362
Location: Florida
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xiayun wrote: Valley Guy 3.0 wrote: Hehe, JLo and JFo still chugging along... So how many weeks has the box office been down against last year's number? 15 weeks, and this weekend is an alarming 30% off from the same period last year. I don't see the trend getting broken anytime soon. That's because of the lack of new movies out there. All the pre-summer movies dropped like a rock, with the exception of Monster in law.
Cinderella Man should have been released in August. I think it would have done better with adults tired of the big budget action/sci-fi movies.
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| Mon Jun 06, 2005 2:12 pm |
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