The acclaimed Cinderella Man opens next weekend but will it be able to top the Sith Lords' 3rd weekend??



CM - $36.1
ROTS - $30.25

It could. It's going to be a close one between Revenge of the Sith, Cinderella Man, and Madagascar for #1.

You think Madagascar will have a chance? Interesting

It should have a shot. I mean, think about it. A 50% drop for Madagascar would put it at $23.6 million. Not too far off.

The Longest Yard for #1... you know you wanna.

What about Sisterhood? Its the only demographic that isn't competing with another movie in the top five right now?

I actually really think this could break out, but I think it's somewhat hampered by that five day opening which will dilute the three day weekend, and while I certainly could see a strong opening that breaks out in the 20 million range, the other movies all look to made 25+ million potentially, which just seems like a bit too much.

It will be close but I see Sith holding on.

I think Dogtown will hurt it a bit, I see girls being more interested in the movie then boys.

It'll be close, but not because Cinderella Man will earn close to 36M. 25M is more realistic, but probably won't be enough to unseat Sith.

Cinderella Man doesn't have the theater count to do it.

Cinderella Man will not even make 20 mill next weekend.

That's what I also think. It may be great, but this is a kind of flim, that absolutely takes time to become a solid hit.
The demographic audience will not rush out for this one immediately. I'll say 18 million opening.

Don't doubt the awesome combo of Howard/Crowe.

Cinderella Man. There's a drought of stuff for adults to see at the theater since Kingdom of Heaven didn't pan out, which is why Monster in Law picked up this weekend. The soccer moms need something to watch while their kids are watching lightsaber duels and talking penguins.

We might see a boxoffice run akin to Road to Perdition

I definately see Cinderella Man winning.

Above all, the marketing has been absolutely brilliant for Cinderella Man, and combine this with the fact that it is the only adult film out and it has Crowe, it's going to be a hit. Mostly though, man, that marketing. Fabulous, wow. Congrats to Universal, who have always had a fantastic marketing department. WB on the other hand... :down:

After the tuesday number now being released, if Sith were to follow AOTC pattern exactly, Sith would make about $26 million for the weekend, and seeing as how I think it will drop slightly worse, I project somewhere around $24-26 million.

So:

Cinderella Man - $26-28 million ($9,300 - $10,000 PTA)
Revenge of the Sith - $24-26 million (53-57% drop)

Madagascar will be somewhere smack dab in the middle, with a possible win for the weekend. Using other CGI films during this time of summer as reference, I see Madagascar making about $26.5-$27.0 million (43-44% drop) for the weekend. It is definately possible that Madagascar wins, if Cinderella Man disappoints.

I already feel like I'm being conservative with Cinderella Man. Seabiscuit managed a $10,400 PTA and Road to Perdition a $12,200 PTA, and I think Cinderella Man is the best marketed. But I decreased it for arguments sake, plus Cinderella Man has many more theatres than the other two opened.

PEACE, Mike

I think this weekend has many possibilities for #1....

50% Chance - Cinderella Man - most likely will open over $25 million now
29% Chance - Madagascar - will have a light drop between 35-40% because of no new kid movie out, so that would put it at $28-$31 million
14% Chance - Star Wars Ep III - has to have a drop under 50% for it to happen, which is unlikely
4% Chance - The Longest Yard - everything else has to fail, and this drop less than 40%
2% Chance - Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants - very unlikely, but could do a Mean Girls type opening of $24 million and top the weekend if everything else fails
1% Chance - Lords of Dogtown - what a surprise this one would pull... maybe if the whole state of Hawaii or Florida saw the movie then it could be #1 :wink:

I really see it as being between Madagascar and Cinderella Man. Without competition from Harry Potter, I don't see Madagascar dropping more then Shrek 2 did. I believe Spirit dropped under 40%, and that was aimed even more at families then this one. I think we will see a drop 40%-45%. As for ROTS, I doubt it will hold up better then AOTC and chances are it holds up a bit worse.

Cinderella Man stands a great shot as Mike Q said because of the marketing. That has to be one of the best jobs in a long time. Although the audience doesn't rush out to theater I see 25m-30m. So, it could go either way between Madagascar and Cinderella Man IMO.

My odds:

Madagascar - 50%
Cinderella Man - 46%
The Longest Yard - 2%
ROTS - 1%
Everything else - 1%

Still underpredicting... [-X

I'm adding Madagascar to the poll (and resetting it) because it has just a good chance as the other two movies (and, many other posters agree...)

Not really. :wink: I can't see both Madagascar and Cinderalla Man dropping below 25m. In fact, I doubt either will.

BTW, how high were many of you guys predicting? :razz: :wink:

Regarding Cinderella Man:

I think they are doing an absolutely fantastic job of marketing this movie. And if they can get me interested, despite my knee jerk rejection of anything having to do with boxing, then they are succeeding.

Definitely Madagascar. CGI films almost always have great holds. Even with the post-Memorial Day effect, I can't see it dropping much more than 40%. So... $28M for Madagascar.

RotS will follow a Clones-esque pattern and drop at least 54% IMO: ~$25M.

Cinderella Man: It's aimed at an older audience... I don't see it topping $25M.