Considering other increases, Sith's not bad at all.

2002, AOTC's Friday before Memorial Day - lowest increase was 58% in Top 10 with average of 120%
1999, TPM's Friday before Memorial Day - lowest increase was 24% in Top 10 with average of 93%

And now the average is 51%.

I pretty much agree exactly with sako. Madagascar and Sith will have strong multipliers to the $70 million 4-day area, and The Longest Yard will have the typical lower macho-guy film multiplier, but still end up with a really great weekend.

PEACE, Mike

That's exactly why I originally expected a 67% increase and then went with 60% after the Thursday numbers. That increase is high for the movie.

It will be interesting to see how much of an effect this also has on the Saturday increases.

DP said 'high' about something Sith's related and not thinking about level of frontloadness??!?!?

Yes!!

Sith is not frontloaded. You cannot just look at it from the percentages. It is grossing more than Clones and will almost be at Clones total as of next weekend. This is miles ahead of Clones, and so what if it's percentage increases aren't on par with it. More people have seen it at this time than had Clones....

haha. :wink:

Still most frontloaded SW movie ever! With the smallest 2nd Friday SW increase ever. It is super frontloaded and will increase only 12% tomorrow before dropping 82% next weekend. It still won't hit 300m I tell you! :wink:

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Frontloading

Doesn't roll off the tongue as well as "The Matrix Frontloaded." #-o

Prolly will be most frontloaded, but still magnificent gross will have. Said to myself when I saw the movie that won't be dissapointed whatever it gross and how. And now even if not have said that, wouldn't be dissapointed. :-)

Still would burn the city if it gross $603m though.

This will a frontlaoded film that will gross 400 mill...not too shabby no matter how you look at it. \:D/

It's obvious THE LONGEST YARD will be #3 and MADAGASCAR will be #1 for the weekend. MADAGASCAR was pretty much dead-on with my prediction. THE LONGEST YARD made more than I predicted, and more than it deserves. Excellent hold for CRASH. KICKING & SCREAMING did poorly.


Here's what I predicted for the new movies:

THE LONGEST YARD

Friday - 11.5 Million
Saturday - 14.1 Million
Sunday - 12.6 Million
Monday - 10.3 Million

Total - 48.5 Million (4-Day)/38.2 Million (3-Day)

It would be great if it dropped on Saturday because then my prediction for that day could be closer to what it ends up making.


MADAGASCAR

Friday - 15 Million
Saturday - 21.3 Million
Sunday - 19.2 Million
Monday - 17.2 Million

Total - 72.7 Million (4-Day)/55.5 Million (3-Day)

From Box Office Guru:

Saturday Update


Adam Sandler scored a touchdown on Friday with the opening day of his new comedy The Longest Yard which edged out Star Wars Episode III to top the box office on Friday with an estimated $15.7M in its first day of release. Sandler pics typically attract teens and young adults who rush out on Fridays so the crown for the entire weekend is sure to stay with George Lucas. But over the Friday-to-Monday holiday session, The Longest Yard might find itself with a powerful $49-54M for Paramount.

Star Wars Episode III began its second weekend with an estimated $15.5M on Friday dropping an understandable 54% from last Friday. The tally puts the Fox blockbuster in a stronger position going into the holiday frame than Episode II and Episode I which started their Memorial Day weekends with Friday takes of $12.8M and $13.5M, respectively. However, Revenge of the Sith's Friday-to-Friday drop was somewhat heavier than Episode II's dropoff rate of 48% on the same days.

Episode III also looks to become the fastest film in history to break the $250M hurdle as it should pass the mark on Sunday in its 11th day beating the current 12-day record held by Spider-Man 2 from last summer. Over the four-day weekend, Sith could find its way to $68-73M landing it in the number one spot with ease. Its remarkable 12-day cume should shoot to about $270M.

Also gobbling up a strong gross on Friday was the DreamWorks animated film Madagascar which opened with an estimated $14.4M in its first day in the wild. Family films earn a smaller share of their holiday weekend grosses on Friday since most children are still in school so sales should spike on Saturday and Sunday. The Ben Stiller-Chris Rock toon could be on its way to $62-68M over the four-day span.


I say they're wrong and MADAGASCAR should be #1 and have around 70 Million for the 4-Day weekend.

God DAYUM I'm good! :Respect: Almost everyone underpredicted The Longest Yard because it didn't look very appealing to them, but I knew this would be a big hit, even called it being #1 on Friday last night. Yeah yeah, of course it won't hold the entire weekend, but the fact that this is going to be #1 for the weekend, and with the great word of mouth it has I think it's more likely then not that this will be Adam Sandler's all time biggest movie. As for the other two biggies, Star Wars did good, and I think it might be able to take the three day, but there's little doubt in my mind that Madagascar will own the four day. It's aimed at a lower age group then Shrek 2 (that had a lot of appeal to teenagers, this has infinitely less) whereas this Star Wars is getting an older audience then the previous two movies. But either way, my derby is looking extreeemely good. Gotta love those weeks you nail everything.

Even worse drops with BOM numbers. Sith is doing juuuust fine.

Looks like my predictions are going to be pretty close to the actuals (except I think I may have went a little high on the 3-day and a little low on the 4th...but it equals out). \:D/ Nice to have that happen for once! :razz: (especially when some little jerk over at BOM told me I was dreaming!).

Wow, the bottom 4 (Unleashed, Interpreter, House of Wax, & Kingdom of Heaven) all went donw!

Ooooh, Hot for MADAGASCAR and LONGEST YARD.

Amazing openings.
SUMMERS HERE!

Everything but Longest Yard will fall short of my 4-days which were

$83.4m MADAGASCAR <<will fall about $10m short
$80.7m SITH << will fall about $10m short
$50.8m LONGEST YARD << seems about right.

Oh and how exactly is a film that made $50m in its first DAY dropping 51% frontloaded?

Look at things more circumstantially, people who are supposed to know stuff about the box office

Hmm, good point about that 50 million first day. Comparing Friday to then, we'd be down by a tad less then 70%. :razz:

xiayun, I think Kicking and Screaming will go a little higher, thanks to those Cinderella Man sneaks in some of the theaters.

I took that into account, and that's the reason I have its multiplier to be almost 5. Its 3-day multiplier last weekend was only 3.3, so even with the help of Cinderella Man, it shouldn't get above 6.5M in the best case.

I'm a bit disappointed that ROTS wasn't able to clear 16, but hopefully it does better on Sat/Sun. I also think it will win the weekend over Madagascar which was just doing horribly at the theater where I checked it. I agree that TLY is prolly going to have a small increase Sat and big drop Sun and Mon. TLY will be 3rd for the weekend.

I think ROTS is going to win the 3-Day weekend, but lose the 4-Day weekend by a hair to Madagascar.

ROTS
Fri: $15.45
Sat: $20.86 (+35%)
Sun: $18.36 (-12%)
Mon: $14.14 (-23%)
3-Day: $54.7
4-Day: $68.8

Madagascar
Fri: $14.03
Sat: $20.34 (+45%)
Sun: $18.51 (-8%)
Mon: $17.03 (-8%)
3-Day: $52.9
4-Day: $69.9

Check out poor Hitchhiker's...dropped 30% on friday.

BJs Sith Prediction for the 4-day Wknd:

Fri: 15.47m +70% (suprisingly low increase :???: )

Sat: 22.90m +48%

Sun: 21.76m -5%

Wknd: 60.13m -44.5%

Mon: 17.41m -20%

4-Day-Wknd: 77.54m -28.5%