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movies35
Forum General
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:53 pm
Posts: 8627
Location: Syracuse, NY
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I knew THE LONGEST YARD would be big! 
_________________
Top 10 Films of 2016
1. La La Land
2. Other People
3. Nocturnal Animals
4. Swiss Army Man
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. The Edge of Seventeen
7. Sing Street
8. Indignation
9. The Lobster
10. Hell or High Water
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:05 am |
  
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am
Posts: 35206
Location: Minnesota
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jb007 wrote: Nazgul9 wrote: jb007 wrote: Based on this,
$76M ROTS
$65M Madagascar
$58M TLY
Madagascar will come out on top me thinks. Movies geared towards children and families traditionally have a much stronger weekend multiplier. AOTC 4.7 and TPM 4.95 were equal to or better than any family movies multipliers. But this one is a little less of a family movie than those were, and plus families will have MADAGASCAR as well, which will make it do even less than it would have otherwise. It will still be close, but I think MADAGASCAR will end up coming out on top. It will have a better Saturday than SITH for sure, and a better Sunday. I don't know which will do better on Monday though.
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:07 am |
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Spidey
Teenage Dream
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:13 pm
Posts: 10678
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The Longest Yard will end the weekend in 3rd place since ROTS and Madagascar will have strong family multipliers.
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:10 am |
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Mister Ecks
New Server, Same X
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 7:07 pm
Posts: 28301
Location: ... siiiigh...
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Spider-Man wrote: The Longest Yard will end the weekend in 3rd place since ROTS and Madagascar will have strong family multipliers. Really now? No, I don't think about eight or nine other people said that first. No-sir-ee.
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Ecks Factor: Cancelled too soon
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:14 am |
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Eagle
Site Owner
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:09 pm
Posts: 14631
Location: Pittsburgh
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Welll ...
I had been saying Star Wars would take Friday, and Madagascar the 4 day ... but it looks as if Longest Yard could eek out Friday.
My predictions were:
Madagascar - 74
Revenge of the Sith - 65
Longest Yard - 52
We shall see.
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:17 am |
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choubachou
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:13 pm
Posts: 1796
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With these numbers, I can see for the 4-day weekend:
Longest Yard: $48M
Madagascar: $66M
Sith: $74M
_________________
Best of 2014:
1- Apes 9.5/10
2- Noah 9.0/10
3- Lone Survivor 8.5/10
4- Captain America 8.0/10
5- 300: 8.0/10
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:34 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Haha! Told ya guys that The Longest Yard would be big! \:D/
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:35 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 25204
Location: Classified
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I'm thinking Madagascar goes up 44% today, like The Incredibles, and drops 19% on Sunday for a $51.6M weekend. ROTS will go up 46% today and drop 15% on Sunday for a $57.3M 3 day. For the four day I'll go with ROTS at $70.8M and Madagascar at $63.5M. I'm changing to Star Wars winning the whole weekend. Madagascar won't have a Shark Tale multiplyer.
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:36 am |
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choubachou
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:13 pm
Posts: 1796
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Zingaling wrote: Haha! Told ya guys that The Longest Yard would be big! \:D/ I expected a $19M Friday for it. :razz: 
_________________
Best of 2014:
1- Apes 9.5/10
2- Noah 9.0/10
3- Lone Survivor 8.5/10
4- Captain America 8.0/10
5- 300: 8.0/10
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:38 am |
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movies35
Forum General
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:53 pm
Posts: 8627
Location: Syracuse, NY
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If SITH wins the weekend, it should be #1 until MR. AND MRS. SMITH comes out!
_________________
Top 10 Films of 2016
1. La La Land
2. Other People
3. Nocturnal Animals
4. Swiss Army Man
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. The Edge of Seventeen
7. Sing Street
8. Indignation
9. The Lobster
10. Hell or High Water
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:44 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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For those three...
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
Friday: $15.5 million
Saturday: $22.5 million (+45%)
Sunday: $20.2 million (-10%)
Monday: $16.1 million (-20%)
4-Day: $74.3 million
The Longest Yard
Friday: $15.6 million
Saturday: $18.7 million (+20%)
Sunday: $15.9 million (-20%)
Monday: $12.4 million (-22%)
4-Day: $62.6 million
Madagascar
Friday: $14.3 million
Saturday: $22.9 million (+75%)
Sunday: $20.6 million (-10%)
Monday: $18.5 million (-10%)
4-Day: $76.3 million
It'll be close between Madagascar and Sith for the 4-day weekend.
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:46 am |
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JMorphin
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 11:58 am
Posts: 1335
Location: Austin, TX
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Oh my god! This weekend is huge! Last night was quite busy but I wasn't feeling a record-breaking weekend. Oh well, good job Adam Sandler. I thought one of the three would be hurt but it sure doesn't look like it now. I'm happy that Madagascar did OK, I guess it will do slightly below my 70 million prediction but oh well. Go Sith! Even 75 million I guess is possible :wink:
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:47 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Showbizdata confirms. Longest Yard wins Friday.
http://www.showbizdata.com/
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:52 am |
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Mesjarch
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 5:41 am
Posts: 2388
Location: Poland
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After last saturday I wouldn't call them reliable either 
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:54 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Star Wars will take the weekend. Shrek 2 had a 4.74 4-day multiplier its Memorial weekend, while the previous two episodes had 4.7 and 4.9. So I expect Sith and Madagascar to have similar IMs.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:55 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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By the way, Clones had a 4.7x 4-day weekend multiplier and Phantom Menace had a 4.94x multiplier. I would give Sith Clones' multiplier for the entire weekend, and that would translate to $72.8 million based on the Friday number.
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:56 am |
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deathawk
Madoshi
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm
Posts: 631
Location: Cephiro
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Nice number for Sith, too bad it couldn't quite crack domestic top 50 in 9 days, still and excellent #
Strong for TLY, better than I though possible. Hopefully for it this is not setting it up for drops
Madagascer, meh, but the days should be kinder.
For the also rans from SBD - Crash continues its impressive run, almost overtaking K&S on Friday. MIL also has a very nice increase.
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:57 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Mesjarch wrote: After last saturday I wouldn't call them reliable either They're more reliable on Friday numbers. _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:58 am |
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Mesjarch
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue May 03, 2005 5:41 am
Posts: 2388
Location: Poland
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xiayun wrote: Mesjarch wrote: After last saturday I wouldn't call them reliable either They're more reliable on Friday numbers. Ok if you say so... you have more experience with box office then me so I take your word on it
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| Sat May 28, 2005 11:59 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Anyone wanna make some 4-day projections?
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| Sat May 28, 2005 12:03 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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More detailed numbers:
1 Longest Yard 15.668 NEW
2 Revenge of the Sith 15.491 -54%
3 Madagascar 14.351 NEW
4 Monster in Law 2.688 -42%
5 Kicking & Screaming 1.276 -60%
6 Crash 1.276 -18%
7 Unleashed 0.552 -54%
8 The Interpreter 0.480 -42%
9 Kingdom of Heaven 0.462 -53%
10 House of Wax 0.406 -60%
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Sat May 28, 2005 12:03 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Zingaling wrote: Anyone wanna make some 4-day projections? Calculating. Oh, Madagascar won't increase 75% today. _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Sat May 28, 2005 12:03 pm |
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deathawk
Madoshi
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm
Posts: 631
Location: Cephiro
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Zingaling wrote: Anyone wanna make some 4-day projections? Here:
ROTS - 75.2
MADA - 64.8
TLY - 61.2
MIL - 11.9
CRAS - 5.7
K&S - 5.5
UNLE - 2.3
INTR - 2.2
KOH - 2.1
HOW - 1.4
If you want accurate, though, these probably are not it...
:wink: :razz:
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| Sat May 28, 2005 12:07 pm |
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baumer72
Mod Team Leader
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm
Posts: 7087
Location: Crystal Lake
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Yea, and we know how reliable they are...they saidd that Sith dropped last Saturday. I think these numbers are probably right, but how can nayone ever trust SBD again? :???:
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| Sat May 28, 2005 12:08 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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xiayun, yeah, I just realized that Madagascar can't increase that much. I was using drops instead of multipliers. #-o
But, if I'm calculating right (using Bruce Almighty), The Longest Yard should be Adam Sandler's biggest opening ever for the 3-day weekend. Bruce Almighty got a 3.37x multiplier (3-day) for its opening weekend, so going a bit lower with 3.2x, The Longest Yard still reaches $50.2 million, making it the biggest of his career.
Bruce Almighty had a 4-day multiplier of 4.26x, so going a bit lower with about 4.0x, that's about $62.8 million.
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| Sat May 28, 2005 12:12 pm |
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