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My sentiments towards the crack-induced 470 mil club

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dolcevita Extraordinary Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm Posts: 16061 Location: The Damage Control Table	My sentiments towards the crack-induced 470 mil club And before anyone jumps on the Star Wars bashing band waggon, I wanted to say that while the topic has arisen because of the Star Wars box office anticipation, this thread is actually not about Sith per se. I just wanted to make sure people actually read it...cause my threads here usually get a sub-par (if even existant) response. :razz: As far as i'm concerned, if any movie could take in 500 million on its first run now, it would definately be Sith. It was miles better than its two predessesors, it has a huge built in fan base, is not generationally or gender restricted, and is pretty good fun. It had a strong opening weekend that has it 1/3 to the mark right off the bat. My question is about the industry, and why i pretty much think its not possible for any movie at this point to get 500 million. Someone mentioned to me once that distributers get the largest percentage of return on ticket sales from the first three weeks to one month of release. Which brings me to the question of why any distributer would even be interested in holding a movie in theatres after that, when it could just cycle up a new big opener and keep reeping rewards? That's how the past few years have felt to me. Huge openers, eclipsing expectations and records, and legs that stumble by the 7th week. There have been some exceptions...Elf, Passion, Pirates. But Pirates was the only one still marketed as a big release with massive screencounts when it opened. The others were surprises. Ever since Matrix reloaded I've felt the indiustry has been pushing for bigger openers and higher turnover. If it could get 300 million in three weeks, and ditch it for another movie that could get three hundred in the next three weeks, why bother holding the former in the theatres for the total of 6 weeks only to make 500 (100 less) and have two of those weeks fall outside of maximum gain for distributers? With big openings and quick pushes, companies can be gauranteed 3700 theatre openers every weekend right? I don't have stats, so i'm going on such memory as the leg length of the three lotr, prequels, matrix, X2, HP etc. Each installment made more (or close to) its predessesor, but in less time. Does someone have stats on leg length of the top 1, 3 (ave) and 10 (ave) movies of the past 10 years? I bet the averages have slowly been seeping downwards for leg length. That's ultimately why I don't see Sith making 500. Even with decent wom and turnout, its beyond the movie's control. Next week, some new movie is going to demand 3700 theatre opening, and Sith is going to have to suffer theatre and screen reduction to make way. Movies get their legs pulled out from under them intentionally if distributers have already made the killing (first two weeks) and don't see the legs (and smaller returns) being of enough interest to maintain in comparison to newer movies. Is it just me, or are movies really getting pulled from theatres and reduced in screen quicker than they used to be? So yes. This is actually a question about the industry, and not about Sith...but see...you read it to the end. Maybe you'll even provide me with those stats I'm begging for? Since it might just be me feeling like legs are shorter. Especially during the summer.
Fri May 27, 2005 3:16 pm

deathawk Madoshi Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro	I think you are reading an effect as a cause. I don't have stats, but your notion that wide releases are shedding theaters more quickly in years past is probably a a valid supposition. However, I think its an effect of the increasingly front-loaded films that now dominate the market, not a cause of the front loading. Its in the theater owners best interest to keep a film as long as it shows any sort of legs. The studios are now taking something like 90% or more of the opening two week take, and then the scale slides the other way to the point where the theater owners get 90%. Back when things were not so front loaded, this worked out to an average 50% split of the take, but those days are no more. So why do the owners agree to pull things? 10% of 90M is 9M, which is more than most films are making in their fourth week or beyond when the theater owners are getting most of the take. All that said - I honestly think it remains as likely, if not more so for a leggy film to break into the 500M arena. The problem is not the economics - in fact the economics argue that a Titantic style leggy film should be almost impossible to displace from theaters after the 4th week. The problem is not studios pushing in new product. The problem is that no film has been good enough to show those types of legs. Not because they can't make one, they just haven't. To push past 500M even with the increase in ticket prices, a film has got to be able to stand up to massive reviewing - and also to generate the type of reaction that says "I can't wait for the DVD, I must see it again now". Pretty much everything since the boat has failed that last test. But it will come, and probably sooner rather than later. Titanic came out of nowhere, as did Spiderman to lesser degree. The one effect all this front loading does have is that if a film is really good enough to hold up to the sort of repeat viewing required to blow past half a billion, it will probably have far less distance to travel after its first month. But again, if a film can be pulling in 20+M in its fourth week, I doubt you will see it shed theaters. Its simply not in the interest of those who actually own the theaters to kick such a film out in favour of the latest shade of green. So, in summary, I blame DVD.
Fri May 27, 2005 3:38 pm

Anonymous	Re: My sentiments towards the crack-induced 470 mil club dolcevita wrote: Someone mentioned to me once that distributers get the largest percentage of return on ticket sales from the first three weeks to one month of release. Which brings me to the question of why any distributer would even be interested in holding a movie in theatres after that, when it could just cycle up a new big opener and keep reeping rewards? Distributors do not have that many movies. And even if they do, with that many movies, chances of movie flopping on box office will be much bigger...and thus losing all those hundreds of millions they put up to make those movies. Just few movies are guaranteed to make the money back. And some more. This way they atleast are getting something, slow and small sum it may be, but still getting. And no risk at all. Legs chart will be indeed nice, could make something until tommorow.
Fri May 27, 2005 3:44 pm

dolcevita Extraordinary Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm Posts: 16061 Location: The Damage Control Table	deathawk wrote: I think you are reading an effect as a cause. I don't have stats, but your notion that wide releases are shedding theaters more quickly in years past is probably a a valid supposition. However, I think its an effect of the increasingly front-loaded films that now dominate the market, not a cause of the front loading. Could be. I have no idea which comes first, chicken or egg. I kind of assumed that distributers were doing this intentionally, pushing to front-load, because they get higher percentage of returns in the first month then thereafter. Quote: Its in the theater owners best interest to keep a film as long as it shows any sort of legs. The studios are now taking something like 90% or more of the opening two week take, and then the scale slides the other way to the point where the theater owners get 90%. Back when things were not so front loaded, this worked out to an average 50% split of the take, but those days are no more. Yeah, I'd heard stats along the line of that 90%. So while it may be of interest to the theatre, how much say do they have in it? I don't know. Why would a theatre get multiple screen showings then? I'd think they'de intentionally hold the numbers down opening two weekends in order to create desire ad viewing that extend before that time. People that are frustrated by sold-out shows still come back at a later time (I do anyways). If you let everyone have what they want by weekend one, its going to kill the legs regardless. It won't be in the theatres best interest to hold it when the next huge release gets pushed in. Quote: So why do the owners agree to pull things? 10% of 90M is 9M, which is more than most films are making in their fourth week or beyond when the theater owners are getting most of the take. Yes. Quote: All that said - I honestly think it remains as likely, if not more so for a leggy film to break into the 500M arena. The problem is not the economics - in fact the economics argue that a Titantic style leggy film should be almost impossible to displace from theaters after the 4th week. The problem is not studios pushing in new product. The problem is that no film has been good enough to show those types of legs. Not because they can't make one, they just haven't. To push past 500M even with the increase in ticket prices, a film has got to be able to stand up to massive reviewing - and also to generate the type of reaction that says "I can't wait for the DVD, I must see it again now". Pretty much everything since the boat has failed that last test. Eh, I'd venture to say enough people would understand Sith as a cultural passing that they wouldn't wait for DVD, that's why i mentioned that movie's likeliness of doing it. The DVD market really is detracting from BO sales for better or worse. But some movies demand Big Screen due to communal memory, etc. I still don't think its going to be enough though. I see batman grabbing alot of screens, and two weeks later War of the World. It just seems like every two weeks, the coincidental span of time where distributers make the most money, is the spacing between BIG movies. And that as each one comes in, it'll dispace the former out of sheer need for screen and theatre counts (front-loading). I do understand there is more to it, and that as much as quality comes into play, I don't even see Titanic making 600 million if it was released now. Quote: But it will come, and probably sooner rather than later. Titanic came out of nowhere, as did Spiderman to lesser degree. The one effect all this front loading does have is that if a film is really good enough to hold up to the sort of repeat viewing required to blow past half a billion, it will probably have far less distance to travel after its first month. But again, if a film can be pulling in 20+M in its fourth week, I doubt you will see it shed theaters. Its simply not in the interest of those who actually own the theaters to kick such a film out in favour of the latest shade of green. I know, some of the 200 million movies like Elf had massive legs, I guess so did Shrek 2, but I didn't see the same front-load anticipation out of those movies. I feel like anything that's been pegged a month ahead of time as the one that's going to get the record, is definately not going to do it. To much anticipation builds for first weekend. And then screens start shedding left and right. Quote: So, in summary, I blame DVD. It's definately another thing to keep in mind. I know alot of people that wait until dvd now because they like to watch at home on their own systems, and don't feel the need to run to a theatre.
Fri May 27, 2005 3:52 pm

Eagle Site Owner Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:09 pm Posts: 14631 Location: Pittsburgh	Ive been duped. Anyways, I just think we are predominantly a culture that wants things NOW. We want our food fast, we want our internet faster, we want things when there brand new and so on and so forth. I think we tend to rush out to a movie because of that. A huge barrage of adds (they say about 8 per average tv watcher) remind us constantly that it is coming out. Once the weekend is over, the ads fade, and so does excitement. There are just so many good movies, so much force fed hype, that movies only get 1-2 weeks in the spotlight anymore. It isn't exactly a bad thing for us. Infact I think its a great thing. I think it is why the DVD market is picking up, becuase people don't have the time to go see so many movies, but they are interested in many that they don't get to see, so they just pick it up on DVD when they can watch at their convience. _________________
Fri May 27, 2005 4:03 pm

deathawk Madoshi Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro	[dolcevita wrote:]Yeah, I'd heard stats along the line of that 90%. So while it may be of interest to the theatre, how much say do they have in it? I don't know. Why would a theatre get multiple screen showings then? I'd think they'de intentionally hold the numbers down opening two weekends in order to create desire ad viewing that extend before that time. People that are frustrated by sold-out shows still come back at a later time (I do anyways). If you let everyone have what they want by weekend one, its going to kill the legs regardless. It won't be in the theatres best interest to hold it when the next huge release gets pushed in.[/quote] First a disclaimer - you'd probably have to in the business, as part of the studio or at the chain's head office to really know what goes into the contracts, but I'll speculate based on observed behvaior. From what I see, the studio probably can dictate the the number of theaters and possibly screens, but specific screen placement is going to be in the theaters hands. The number of screens is probably out of the studios control by week two, if not before as well. As to the multiple screenings - first, I go back to my point about 10% of a large number is better than 90% of a really small one. Second, the problem with not meeting demand is that you run the risk of it being met elsewhere or evaporating completely. Keep in mind that some of the massive demand we see on opening weekends is the result of orchestrated marketing campaigns by the studios (not the theaters), which intentionally peak awareness on day of release. Now, combine this with the fact that while there is one studio per film, there are much larger number of chain owners, many of which have locations that directly compete with each other. Finally - keep in mind that the theater owners revenue stream consists of more than just the movie ticket. They sell soda, popcorn, snacks, etc. the relationship for those sales are strictly linear - the more bodies there are in the theater, the more junk food they will sell. So if you own one of these chains, you will max out screen count based on demand in order to: A) prevent your competitor from picking up the 10% of the gate. (cause if he takes it, you won't get it next week) B) maximize your ancillary sales (soda, popcorn, candy, posters, whatever) - items which can bring more money per seat than the film itself, and which is not shared with the studio.
Fri May 27, 2005 4:05 pm

A. G. Draughty Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am Posts: 13347	I don't think it has to do with theater owners and screens, or cultural impatience. It's more about content and demographics. Spider-Man and Titanic had more appeal to girls than most FX movies do and even more than Sith does. That's the main reason these other movies keep falling short. It's hard to make a movie that has the special effects male appeal and also brings in the girls, it's like drawing to an inside straight. The movie would also have to be hugely hyped and not suck, these are all hard things to have going at the same time.
Fri May 27, 2005 4:32 pm

deathawk Madoshi Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro	Archie Gates wrote: I don't think it has to do with theater owners and screens, or cultural impatience. It's more about content and demographics. Spider-Man and Titanic had more appeal to girls than most FX movies do and even more than Sith does. That's the main reason these other movies keep falling short. It's hard to make a movie that has the special effects male appeal and also brings in the girls, it's like drawing to an inside straight. The movie would also have to be hugely hyped and not suck, these are all hard things to have going at the same time. Good point, although I'd say appeal kids + appeal adults is about as potent a combination - as Shrek 2 demonstrated.
Fri May 27, 2005 4:47 pm

Maximus Hot Fuss Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 10:46 am Posts: 8427 Location: floridaaa	Don't make fun of my drug habits, dolce. I feel singled out. (Oh, and we all joined because of our inner-fanboy screaming to umm.... scream?) Archie, Sith has Hayden. He's hot. Girls loooove him. I'm sure they are going by the busloads to see him...... or maybe I am just trying to rationalize an insane prediction? \:D/ I see no reason why Sith won't top 400m though.
Fri May 27, 2005 4:48 pm

Anonymous	Sod off demon twin.
Fri May 27, 2005 4:53 pm

Maximus Hot Fuss Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 10:46 am Posts: 8427 Location: floridaaa	loyalfromlondon wrote: Sod off demon twin.
Fri May 27, 2005 4:54 pm

Anonymous	Here you go dolce. A - gross before opening weekend B - opening weekend (wide) C - total D - total-gross before opening weekend E - multiplier (D/opening weekend) Code: 1995 A B C D E Toy Story $9.930.559 $29.140.617 $191.796.233 $181.865.674 6,241 Batman Forever $0 $52.784.433 $184.031.112 $184.031.112 3,486 Apollo 13 $0 $25.353.380 $172.071.312 $172.071.312 6,787 Pocahontas $4.953.359 $29.531.619 $141.579.773 $136.626.414 4,626 Ace Ventura 2 $0 $37.804.076 $108.385.533 $108.385.533 2,867 Goldeneye $0 $26.205.007 $106.429.941 $106.429.941 4,061 Jumanji $0 $11.084.370 $100.475.249 $100.475.249 9,065 Casper $0 $22.091.975 $100.328.194 $100.328.194 4,541 Seven $0 $13.949.807 $100.125.643 $100.125.643 7,178 Die Hard 3 $0 $22.162.245 $100.012.499 $100.012.499 4,513 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Average 5,337 Code: 1996 A B C D E Independance Day $45.873.988 $50.228.264 $306.169.268 $260.295.280 5,182 Twister $0 $41.059.405 $241.721.524 $241.721.524 5,887 Mission: Impossible $18.094.818 $45.436.830 $180.981.886 $162.887.068 3,585 Jerry McGuire $0 $17.084.296 $153.952.592 $153.952.592 9,011 Ransom $0 $34.216.088 $136.492.681 $136.492.681 3,989 101 Dalmatians $11.569.454 $33.504.025 $136.189.294 $124.619.840 3,720 The Rock $0 $25.069.525 $134.069.511 $134.069.511 5,348 The Nutty Professor $0 $25.411.725 $128.814.019 $128.814.019 5,069 The Birdcage $0 $18.275.828 $124.060.553 $124.060.553 6,788 A Time to Kill $0 $14.823.159 $108.766.007 $108.766.007 7,338 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Average 5,592 Code: 1997 A B C D E Titanic $0 $28.638.131 $600.788.188 $600.788.188 20,979 Men In Black $33.065.445 $51.068.455 $250.690.539 $217.625.094 4,261 The Lost World $26.255.617 $72.132.785 $229.086.679 $202.831.062 2,812 Liar Liar $0 $31.423.025 $181.410.615 $181.410.615 5,773 Air Force One $0 $37.132.505 $172.956.409 $172.956.409 4,658 As Good As It Gets $3.557.961 $12.606.928 $148.478.011 $144.920.050 11,495 Good Will Hunting $8.748.852 $10.261.471 $138.433.435 $129.684.583 12,638 Star Wars (SE) $0 $35.906.661 $138.257.865 $138.257.865 3,850 My Best Friend's W. $0 $21.678.377 $127.120.029 $127.120.029 5,864 Tommorow Never Dies $0 $25.143.007 $125.304.276 $125.304.276 4,984 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Average 7,731 (without Titanic) 6,260 Code: 1998 A B C D E Saving Private Ryan $0 $30.576.104 $216.540.909 $216.540.909 7,082 Armageddon $18.112.703 $36.089.972 $201.578.182 $183.465.479 5,084 There's Something.. $4.056.837 $13.740.644 $176.484.651 $172.427.814 12,549 A Bug's Life $12.853.404 $33.258.052 $162.798.565 $149.945.161 4,509 The Waterboy $0 $39.414.071 $161.491.646 $161.491.646 4,097 Doctor Dolittle $0 $29.014.324 $144.156.605 $144.156.605 4,968 Rush Hour $0 $33.001.803 $141.186.864 $141.186.864 4,278 Deep Impact $0 $41.152.375 $140.464.664 $140.464.664 3,413 Godzilla $14.445.682 $44.047.541 $136.314.294 $121.868.612 2,767 Patch Adams $0 $25.262.280 $135.026.902 $135.026.902 5,345 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Average 5,409 Code: 1999 A B C D E The Phantom Menace $40.850.267 $64.820.970 $431.088.301 $390.238.034 6,020 The Sixth Sense $0 $26.681.262 $293.506.292 $293.506.292 11,000 Toy Story 2 $23.093.123 $57.388.839 $245.852.179 $222.759.056 3,882 Austin Powers 2 $0 $54.917.604 $206.040.086 $206.040.086 3,752 The Matrix $9.564.361 $27.788.331 $171.479.930 $161.915.569 5,827 Tarzan $139.374 $34.221.968 $171.091.819 $170.952.445 4,995 Big Daddy $0 $41.536.370 $163.479.795 $163.479.795 3,936 The Mummy $0 $43.369.635 $155.385.488 $155.385.488 3,583 Runaway Bride $0 $35.055.556 $152.257.509 $152.257.509 4,343 The Blair Witch P. $6.932.918 $29.207.381 $140.539.099 $133.606.181 4,574 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Average 5,191 Code: 2000 A B C D E How the Grinch... $0 $55.082.330 $260.044.825 $260.044.825 4,721 Cast Away $10.968.669 $28.883.406 $233.632.142 $222.663.473 7,709 Mission: Imp. 2 $20.356.398 $57.845.297 $215.409.889 $195.053.491 3,372 Gladiator $0 $34.819.017 $187.705.427 $187.705.427 5,391 What Women Want $0 $33.614.543 $182.811.707 $182.811.707 5,438 The Perfect Storm $0 $41.325.042 $182.618.434 $182.618.434 4,419 Meet the Parents $0 $28.623.300 $166.244.045 $166.244.045 5,808 X-Men $0 $54.471.475 $157.299.717 $157.299.717 2,888 Scary Movie $0 $42.346.669 $157.019.771 $157.019.771 3,708 What Lies Beneath $0 $29.702.959 $155.464.351 $155.464.351 5,234 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Average 4,869 Code: 2001 A B C D E Harry Potter 1 $0 $90.294.621 $317.575.550 $317.575.550 3,517 FOTR $27.156.510 $47.211.490 $313.364.114 $286.207.604 6,062 Shrek $39.588 $42.347.760 $267.665.011 $267.625.423 6,320 Monsters, Inc. $0 $62.577.067 $255.873.250 $255.873.250 4,089 Rush Hour 2 $0 $67.408.222 $226.164.286 $226.164.286 3,355 The Mummy Returns $0 $68.139.035 $202.019.785 $202.019.785 2,965 Pearl Harbour $0 $59.078.912 $198.542.554 $198.542.554 3,361 Ocean's Eleven $0 $38.107.822 $183.417.150 $183.417.150 4,813 Jurassic Park III $30.614.110 $50.771.645 $181.171.875 $150.557.765 2,965 Planet of the Apes $0 $68.532.960 $180.011.740 $180.011.740 2,627 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Average 4,007 Code: 2002 A B C D E Spider-Man $0 $114.844.116 $403.706.375 $403.706.375 3,515 The Two Towers $40.038.684 $62.007.528 $339.789.881 $299.751.197 4,834 Attack of the Cl. $30.141.417 $80.027.814 $310.676.740 $280.535.323 3,505 Harry Potter 2 $0 $88.357.488 $261.988.482 $261.988.482 2,965 My Big Fat Greek.. $37.170.734 $3.002.241 $241.438.208 $204.267.474 68,038 Signs $0 $60.117.080 $227.966.634 $227.966.634 3,792 Austin Powers 3 $3.553.719 $73.071.188 $213.307.889 $209.754.170 2,871 Men in Black II $35.092.835 $52.148.751 $190.418.803 $155.325.968 2,979 Ice Age $0 $46.312.454 $176.387.405 $176.387.405 3,809 Chicago $32.147.601 $8.238.709 $170.687.518 $138.539.917 16,816 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Average 11,312 (without MBFGW) 5,009 (without MBFGW and Chicago) 3,534 Code: 2003 A B C D E Return of the King $51.470.821 $72.629.713 $377.027.325 $325.556.504 4,482 Finding Nemo $0 $70.251.710 $339.714.978 $339.714.978 4,836 Pirates of the C. $23.995.281 $46.630.690 $305.413.918 $281.418.637 6,035 The Matrix Rel. $42.508.303 $91.774.413 $281.576.461 $239.068.158 2,605 Bruce Almighty $0 $67.953.330 $242.829.261 $242.829.261 3,573 X2: X-Men United $0 $85.558.731 $214.949.694 $214.949.694 2,512 Elf $0 $31.113.501 $173.398.518 $173.398.518 5,573 Terminator 3 $28.346.021 $44.041.440 $150.371.112 $122.025.091 2,771 The Matrix Rev. $35.314.846 $48.475.154 $139.313.948 $103.999.102 2,145 Cheaper by the D. $7.839.594 $27.557.647 $138.614.544 $130.774.950 4,746 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Average 3,928 Code: 2004 A B C D E Shrek 2 $20.945.182 $108.037.878 $441.226.247 $420.281.065 3,890 Spider-Man 2 $64.255.524 $88.156.227 $373.585.825 $309.330.301 3,509 The Passion $41.337.889 $83.848.082 $370.274.604 $328.936.715 3,923 Meet the Fockers $24.396.740 $46.120.980 $279.247.766 $254.851.026 5,526 The Incredibles $0 $70.467.623 $261.441.092 $261.441.092 3,710 Harry Potter 3 $0 $93.687.367 $249.541.069 $249.541.069 2,664 The Day After Tommorow $0 $68.743.584 $186.740.799 $186.740.799 2,716 The Bourne Supremacy $0 $52.521.865 $176.241.941 $176.241.941 3,356 National Treasure $0 $35.142.554 $172.975.674 $172.975.674 4,922 The Polar Express $7.305.683 $23.323.463 $162.775.358 $155.469.675 6,666 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Average 4,088
Fri May 27, 2005 8:03 pm

deathawk Madoshi Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro	Some companion numbers to the Excellent Info by Nebs In these charts, I look at the top 9 widest releases. The first chart just shows some basic data Code: Film_ OW TC Open W/E PTA Total Gross Mult Date SHRK2 4163 $108,037,878 $25,951 $441,226,247 4.08 05/19/04 SM_2_ 4152 $ 88,156,227 $21,232 $373,585,825 4.24 06/30/04 SHRKT 4016 $ 47,604,606 $11,853 $160,861,908 3.38 10/01/04 INCRE 3933 $ 70,467,623 $17,917 $261,441,092 3.71 11/05/04 HP_3_ 3855 $ 93,687,367 $24,302 $249,541,069 2.66 06/04/04 ROBOT 3776 $ 36,045,301 $ 9,545 $126,288,325 3.50 03/11/05 X2___ 3741 $ 85,558,731 $22,870 $214,949,694 2.51 05/02/03 VILLA 3730 $ 50,746,142 $13,604 $114,197,520 2.25 07/30/04 ROTK_ 3703 $ 72,629,713 $19,613 $377,027,325 5.19 12/17/03 This next chart looks at the raw theater counts thru week 7 Code: Film_ W1__ W2__ W3__ W4__ W5__ W6__ W7__ SHRK2 4163 4223 4131 3843 3306 2937 2609 SM_2_ 4152 4166 4058 3753 3001 2564 1907 SHRKT 4016 4070 3948 3656 3381 2817 1622 INCRE 3933 3933 3683 3453 3178 2656 1930 HP_3_ 3855 3855 3805 3404 2725 2002 1460 ROBOT 3776 3776 3431 3026 2713 2476 2072 X2___ 3741 3749 3490 3067 2530 2050 1316 VILLA 3730 3733 3142 2249 1560 751 442 ROTK_ 3703 3703 3703 3532 3003 2558 2256 Now, we smooth out the differences by expressing the above counts as a percentage of the films opening week theater count Code: Film_ W1 % W2 % W3 % W4 % W5 % W6 % W7 % SHRK2 100% 101% 99% 92% 79% 71% 63% SM_2_ 100% 100% 98% 90% 72% 62% 46% SHRKT 100% 101% 98% 91% 84% 70% 40% INCRE 100% 100% 94% 88% 81% 68% 49% HP_3_ 100% 100% 99% 88% 71% 52% 38% ROBOT 100% 100% 91% 80% 72% 66% 55% X2___ 100% 100% 93% 82% 68% 55% 35% VILLA 100% 100% 84% 60% 42% 20% 12% ROTK_ 100% 100% 100% 95% 81% 69% 61% And for the final piece, here are the w/e to w/e drops. For consistency, I used 3 day figures even if there was a 4 day involved. Code: Film %W2 %W3 %W4 %W5 %W6 %W7 SHRK2 33.1 47.4 38.5 40.2 26.7 42.9 SM_2_ 48.7 45.2 39.4 42.6 36.9 35.3 SHRKT 34.2 29.8 35.0 47.6 39.3 54.0 INCRE 28.7 47.2 11.1 61.8 44.1 38.0 HP_3_ 62.7 48.4 37.6 47.2 31.8 31.9 ROBOT 41.7 38.6 23.9 52.7 22.5 5.2 X2___ 53.2 56.8 39.3 51.5 41.0 42.1 VILLA 67.5 56.5 48.0 49.2 55.6 57.6 ROTK_ 30.3 44.3 49.6 28.1 33.6 21.7 What I get out of this is that leggy films are not in fact being rushed out the door. Shrek 2, leggy and pulling in monster numbers, and ROTK, highest multiplier, held over 60% thru week 7. SM2 did not hold as well as its multiplier might indicate, but we must note that July 5th was a monster Monday due to holiday that occured outside the opening weekend 3 day, which skews the mulitplier a bit. The weakest legs on the chart, HP3, X2 and Village OTOH, did not hold theaters quite so well. I think this shows support for the concept that what will convince owners to hold movies in theaters vs. tossing them out is again, behinds in seats. Robots was the lowest opener in the group, but was able to hold over 50% of its opening theater count by virtue of the low drops (good legs). The films with horrifying drops are the ones that lose count. And as a final point, Shrek 2, which is one of our comparison points for Sith clearly was not rushed out of theaters - even as the largest opener, it had the best hold in theater count thru week 7 - in fact it was still in almost 2/3 the amount it started in. If there is interest, I can expand this to parallel Nebs chart, looking at the top 10 for the last decade, but it will take me some time.
Sat May 28, 2005 11:10 am

dolcevita Extraordinary Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm Posts: 16061 Location: The Damage Control Table	Wow Nebs, that is some great numbers! There has been leg drops from over 5 to low 4's and 3's in the past few years. I knew it wasn't just me. I think pulling out MBFGW and Chicago is interesting. Greek Wedding had limited opening, and never was pushed as a big money maker. Same with Chicago, where if I remember correctly, was not even widest screen release of its opening week (only 1000 theatres I think). I think Pirates also only opened in 2000 theatres correct?Not 3500. With the exception of Shrek2, most of the longer legs (As Good As It Gets anyone) were not massive theatre count openers. I've noticed its useless for an independant theatre to hold a movie, because theatres do not to advertising, distributers do. I see the cycle of poster promos in city subway and billboards, and by the opening day of a movie, its already been replaced (add-wise) for a movie two week to a month down the road. The ad campaigns are creating short attention span and memory. deathhawk...I'm sorry but I don't quite understand your charts?????? They're not the top grossers? There the widest releases of the year? -and yes, I'm the evil twin, -and yes, Hayden is very cute
Sun May 29, 2005 2:57 am

lilmac Veteran Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3213	Very impressive work guys! One thing we can draw from your analysis is the unpredictability of boxoffice grosses! What effect do illegal movie downloads play for BO grosses? IMO, a negligible effect for now. _________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else. I was blind, but now I see.
Sun May 29, 2005 4:28 am

deathawk Madoshi Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro	dolcevita wrote: deathhawk...I'm sorry but I don't quite understand your charts?????? They're not the top grossers? There the widest releases of the year? They might work better as a companion to Nebs' charts, but it would take some time to grab together all the info. I just pulled the widest releases off the BOM "most theaters at opening" chart. The idea was to look at how quickly they shed theaters in relation to their overall mulitplier and previous weekend drops. It looks a bit better in excel. If that makes sense and would be of interest to look at all of Nebs films this way, I'll do the others. Otherwise, since its a bit time consuming to do, I won't bother.
Sun May 29, 2005 8:03 am

Anonymous	deathawk, I think it would be really interesting to see those charts as well...and if it's that time consuming, I'm willing to help...perhaps one of us 1995-2000, other 2000-today or 2004?
Sun May 29, 2005 10:09 am

deathawk Madoshi Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro	Nebs wrote: deathawk, I think it would be really interesting to see those charts as well...and if it's that time consuming, I'm willing to help...perhaps one of us 1995-2000, other 2000-today or 2004? Let me see how far I can get in the next couple hours. The real problem is with the formatting though. I still am not sure how to get it intelligbly formatted to look at things across 10 years so that trends would be apparent.
Sun May 29, 2005 10:15 am

deathawk Madoshi Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro	I'm almost half way done - but.... I gotta run out for a couple hours, so there will be a delay in finishing. Something I have noticed that we really did not take into account at all. Holidays. Once you really start looking at theater holds, it becomes strikingly obvious that the placement of Holidays later in a films run has a definite impact on the number of theaters it can hold. Its amazing how many of the films hold on to a high count into their 5th or 6th week simply because that week is a holiday.
Sun May 29, 2005 12:18 pm

deathawk Madoshi Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro	Okay - companion charts coming up. Couple quick notes, comments afterwards. I excluded Blair Witch, Chicago and My Big Fat Greek Weeding. Their release patterns were too atypical for the information these charts are looking at - which is to say how well a film holds theaters. This first chart is simply a key for the 5 letter code I use for the film and the titles used by Nebs. I find it easier to get the columns to line up using standard length film codes instead of titles. Code: Code Film TS1__ Toy Story BATMF Batman Forever APL13 Apollo 13 POCOH Pocahontas AV2PD Ace Ventura 2 GLDNE Goldeneye JUMAN Jumanji CASPR Casper SEVEN Seven DH3__ Die Hard 3 ID4__ Independance Day TWIST Twister MIMP1 Mission: Impossible JYMCG Jerry McGuire RANSM Ransom 101DM 101 Dalmatians ROCK_ The Rock NUTTY The Nutty Professor BIRDC The Birdcage TIMTK A Time to Kill TITAN Titanic MIB1_ Men In Black JP2__ The Lost World LIARL Liar Liar AIRF1 Air Force One AGAIG As Good As It Gets GDWH_ Good Will Hunting SW4SE Star Wars (SE) MBFWD My Best Friend's W. TND__ Tommorow Never Dies SVGPR Saving Private Ryan ARMAG Armageddon TSAMY There's Something.. BUGLF A Bug's Life WTRBY The Waterboy DRDL_ Doctor Dolittle RH1__ Rush Hour DEEPI Deep Impact GODZL Godzilla PTCAD Patch Adams SW1__ The Phantom Menace SIXTH The Sixth Sense TS2__ Toy Story 2 AP2__ Austin Powers 2 MTRX1 The Matrix TARZN Tarzan BGDAD Big Daddy MUMY1 The Mummy RUNBR Runaway Bride HTGSC How the Grinch... CASTA Cast Away MIMP2 Mission: Imp. 2 GLADI Gladiator WWW__ What Women Want PERFS The Perfect Storm MTPRS Meet the Parents XMEN1 X-Men SCAR1 Scary Movie WLBNH What Lies Beneath HP1__ Harry Potter 1 LOTR2 FOTR SHRK1 Shrek MONSI Monsters, Inc. RH2__ Rush Hour 2 MUMY2 The Mummy Returns PEARL Pearl Harbour OCN11 Ocean's Eleven JP3__ Jurassic Park III PNAPE Planet of the Apes SM1__ Spider-Man LOTR2 The Two Towers SW3__ Attack of the Cl. HP2__ Harry Potter 2 SIGNS Signs AP3__ Austin Powers 3 MIB2_ Men in Black II ICEAG Ice Age LOTR3 Return of the King FNEMO Finding Nemo POTCB Pirates of the C. MTRX2 The Matrix Rel. BRUCE Bruce Almighty XMEN2 X2: X-Men United ELF__ Elf TERM3 Terminator 3 MTRX3 The Matrix Rev. CPBTD Cheaper by the D. SHRK2 Shrek 2 SM2__ Spider-Man 2 TPOTC The Passion MTFRS Meet the Fockers INCRE The Incredibles HP3__ Harry Potter 3 DAYAT The Day After Tommo BRNSP The Bourne Supremac NATTR National Treasure POLAR The Polar Express
Sun May 29, 2005 6:05 pm

deathawk Madoshi Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro	Now for the Theater Counts. Multiplier is included for reference. I stretched this out to 8 weeks (2 months) Code: Film MULTI W1TC W2TC W3TC W4TC W5TC W6TC W7TC W8TC TS1__ 6.24 2457 2461 2476 2528 2522 2574 2469 2053 BATMF 3.49 2842 2893 2893 2893 2487 1974 1436 738 APL13 6.79 2197 2200 2302 2346 2347 2258 2126 1819 POCOH 4.63 2569 2577 2608 2757 2461 1693 N/A N/A AV2PD 2.87 2652 2652 2705 2705 2702 2135 1020 376 GLDNE 4.06 2667 2667 2667 2667 2202 1458 N/A 1432 JUMAN 9.07 2487 2530 2530 2530 2218 1941 1771 1530 CASPR 4.54 2714 2720 2756 2757 2544 1906 1400 N/A SEVEN 7.18 2441 2472 2511 2511 2528 2252 2007 1818 DH3__ 4.51 2525 2525 2518 2579 2200 1936 1369 N/A ID4__ 5.18 2882 2908 2972 2977 2788 2589 2257 2384 TWIST 5.89 2414 2785 2808 2808 2808 2532 2318 1877 MIMP1 3.59 3012 3012 3012 2863 2411 2212 1747 1140 JYMCG 9.01 2531 2531 2531 2531 2450 2286 2207 2140 RANSM 3.99 2676 2757 2768 2588 2411 1823 1326 1171 101DM 3.72 2794 2812 2841 2901 2901 2702 2024 1528 ROCK_ 5.35 2392 2415 2426 2409 2137 1848 1524 964 NUTTY 5.07 2115 2138 2178 2239 2177 2075 1820 1143 BIRDC 6.79 1950 2236 2236 2236 2236 2285 2285 1958 TIMTK 7.34 2123 2253 2313 2313 2182 2132 2056 1836 TITAN 20.98 2674 2711 2727 2746 2767 2771 2853 2956 MIB1_ 4.26 3020 3020 3102 3180 2932 2653 2261 1835 JP2__ 2.81 3281 3282 3397 3565 3086 2607 1365 1422 LIARL 5.77 2845 2853 2878 2880 2909 2863 2675 2312 AIRF1 4.66 2919 2919 2981 2981 2824 2601 2468 2190 AGAIG 11.50 1572 1579 1632 1753 1763 1778 1795 1801 GDWH_ 12.64 1787 1819 1831 1831 2157 2172 2185 2203 SW4SE 3.85 2104 2104 2104 2200 2375 2039 1430 741 MBFWD 5.86 2134 2134 2233 2343 2376 2146 1747 1462 TND__ 4.98 2807 2807 2807 2807 2427 1905 1306 983 SVGPR 7.08 2453 2540 2592 2654 2671 2774 2807 2705 ARMAG 5.08 3127 3136 3184 3127 2491 2123 1786 1423 TSAMY 12.55 2186 2216 2145 2084 2203 2186 2401 2545 BUGLF 4.51 2686 2701 2748 2773 2456 2551 2500 1815 WTRBY 4.10 2664 2675 2689 2782 2778 2610 2242 1281 DRDL_ 4.97 2777 2871 2869 2805 2528 2184 1821 1390 RH1__ 4.28 2638 2643 2701 2701 2724 2602 2402 2043 DEEPI 3.41 3156 3192 3250 3280 3280 2624 1972 1617 GODZL 2.77 3310 3310 3310 3310 2337 1855 1162 450 PTCAD 5.35 2712 2751 2770 2893 2909 2879 2729 2101 SW1__ 6.02 2970 3022 3024 3024 3019 3126 2628 2447 SIXTH 11.00 2161 2395 2688 2763 2775 2782 2788 2791 TS2__ 3.88 3236 3238 3257 3228 3102 2752 2326 1990 AP2__ 3.75 3312 3314 3314 3091 2608 2090 1376 1056 MTRX1 5.83 2849 2903 2903 2903 2903 2860 2715 2521 TARZN 5.00 3005 3049 3103 3131 2838 2281 1611 1132 BGDAD 3.94 3027 3121 3254 3254 2904 2288 1518 1011 MUMY1 3.58 3209 3226 3276 3395 3411 3098 2325 1826 RUNBR 4.34 3158 3161 3212 3240 3090 3015 2773 2384 HTGSC 4.72 3127 3134 3138 3182 3256 3164 3161 2594 CASTA 7.71 2774 2929 2948 3048 3061 2891 2648 2347 MIMP2 3.37 3653 3653 3669 3633 3245 2667 2057 1709 GLADI 5.39 2938 2943 3041 3188 3056 2706 2266 1812 WWW__ 5.44 3012 3044 3046 3052 3092 3025 2611 1932 PERFS 4.42 3407 3407 3407 3203 3093 2602 1938 1417 MTPRS 5.81 2614 2615 2619 2647 2672 2697 2412 2087 XMEN1 2.89 3025 3112 3107 2774 2145 1624 1175 848 SCAR1 3.71 2912 3152 3301 3256 2597 1944 1501 1051 WLBNH 5.23 2813 2825 2867 2925 2760 2568 2407 2166 HP1__ 3.52 3672 3672 3672 3672 3422 3311 3186 2681 LOTR2 6.06 3359 3359 3381 3381 3266 2703 2309 1706 SHRK1 6.32 3587 3623 3661 3715 3317 3007 2704 2107 MONSI 4.09 3237 3269 3461 3649 3390 2884 2682 2097 RH2__ 3.36 3118 3118 3080 3001 2825 2546 2268 2129 MUMY2 2.97 3401 3410 3452 3553 3204 2540 1777 1118 PEARL 3.36 3214 3214 3255 3140 2668 2305 1434 1210 OCN11 4.81 3075 3075 3075 3075 2770 2670 2670 2010 JP3__ 2.97 3434 3439 3462 3175 2516 1494 1143 886 PNAPE 2.63 3500 3530 3401 3060 1931 1504 1179 913 SM1__ 3.52 3615 3615 3615 3876 3646 3235 2702 2278 LOTR2 4.83 3622 3622 3622 3477 3110 2666 2175 1680 SW3__ 3.51 3161 3161 3161 3161 2401 2107 1801 1162 HP2__ 2.97 3682 3682 3682 3387 3025 2750 2505 2015 SIGNS 3.79 3264 3310 3344 3453 3437 3232 3051 2338 AP3__ 2.87 3613 3613 3508 3113 2805 2506 2102 1811 MIB2_ 2.98 3557 3611 3641 3542 2902 2076 1223 737 ICEAG 3.81 3316 3345 3333 3200 3011 2820 2594 2137 LOTR3 4.48 3703 3703 3703 3532 3003 2558 2256 1878 FNEMO 4.84 3374 3391 3425 3404 3333 2902 2643 2480 POTCB 6.04 3269 3359 3416 3390 3170 2710 2404 2227 MTRX2 2.61 3603 3603 3453 3225 2350 1850 1488 801 BRUCE 3.57 3483 3492 3549 3477 3074 2651 1929 1429 XMEN2 2.51 3741 3749 3490 3067 2530 2050 1316 1301 ELF__ 5.57 3337 3381 3381 3202 3119 2876 2451 2015 TERM3 2.77 3504 3504 3404 2660 1910 1275 633 411 MTRX3 2.15 3502 3502 3024 2055 1257 633 272 116 CPBTD 4.75 3298 3307 3238 3025 2812 2396 1662 1335 SHRK2 3.89 4163 4223 4131 3843 3306 2937 2609 2142 SM2__ 3.51 4152 4166 4058 3753 3001 2564 1907 1343 TPOTC 3.92 3043 3170 3221 3250 3214 3408 3240 2848 MTFRS 5.53 3518 3524 3527 3554 3446 3006 2504 1883 INCRE 3.71 3933 3933 3683 3453 3178 2656 1930 1732 HP3__ 2.66 3855 3855 3805 3404 2725 2002 1460 1008 DAYAT 2.72 3425 3444 3210 2667 2212 1518 728 487 BRNSP 3.36 3165 3180 3304 2976 2532 2079 1717 1494 NATTR 4.92 3017 3243 3243 3203 2772 2201 2282 2177 POLAR 6.67 3650 3650 3650 3650 3257 2868 2618 2513
Sun May 29, 2005 6:14 pm

deathawk Madoshi Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro	Now for the Theater counts expressed as a % of the opening week Theater Count. I have again included Multiplier as reference. Code: Film MULTI W1T% W2T% W3T% W4T% W5T% W6T% W7T% W8T% TS1__ 6.24 100% 100% 101% 103% 103% 105% 100% 84% BATMF 3.49 100% 102% 102% 102% 88% 69% 51% 26% APL13 6.79 100% 100% 105% 107% 107% 103% 97% 83% POCOH 4.63 100% 100% 102% 107% 96% 66% N/A N/A AV2PD 2.87 100% 100% 102% 102% 102% 81% 38% 14% GLDNE 4.06 100% 100% 100% 100% 83% 55% N/A 54% JUMAN 9.07 100% 102% 102% 102% 89% 78% 71% 62% CASPR 4.54 100% 100% 102% 102% 94% 70% 52% N/A SEVEN 7.18 100% 101% 103% 103% 104% 92% 82% 74% DH3__ 4.51 100% 100% 100% 102% 87% 77% 54% N/A ID4__ 5.18 100% 101% 103% 103% 97% 90% 78% 83% TWIST 5.89 100% 115% 116% 116% 116% 105% 96% 78% MIMP1 3.59 100% 100% 100% 95% 80% 73% 58% 38% JYMCG 9.01 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 90% 87% 85% RANSM 3.99 100% 103% 103% 97% 90% 68% 50% 44% 101DM 3.72 100% 101% 102% 104% 104% 97% 72% 55% ROCK_ 5.35 100% 101% 101% 101% 89% 77% 64% 40% NUTTY 5.07 100% 101% 103% 106% 103% 98% 86% 54% BIRDC 6.79 100% 115% 115% 115% 115% 117% 117% 100% TIMTK 7.34 100% 106% 109% 109% 103% 100% 97% 86% TITAN 20.98 100% 101% 102% 103% 103% 104% 107% 111% MIB1_ 4.26 100% 100% 103% 105% 97% 88% 75% 61% JP2__ 2.81 100% 100% 104% 109% 94% 79% 42% 43% LIARL 5.77 100% 100% 101% 101% 102% 101% 94% 81% AIRF1 4.66 100% 100% 102% 102% 97% 89% 85% 75% AGAIG 11.50 100% 100% 104% 112% 112% 113% 114% 115% GDWH_ 12.64 100% 102% 102% 102% 121% 122% 122% 123% SW4SE 3.85 100% 100% 100% 105% 113% 97% 68% 35% MBFWD 5.86 100% 100% 105% 110% 111% 101% 82% 69% TND__ 4.98 100% 100% 100% 100% 86% 68% 47% 35% SVGPR 7.08 100% 104% 106% 108% 109% 113% 114% 110% ARMAG 5.08 100% 100% 102% 100% 80% 68% 57% 46% TSAMY 12.55 100% 101% 98% 95% 101% 100% 110% 116% BUGLF 4.51 100% 101% 102% 103% 91% 95% 93% 68% WTRBY 4.10 100% 100% 101% 104% 104% 98% 84% 48% DRDL_ 4.97 100% 103% 103% 101% 91% 79% 66% 50% RH1__ 4.28 100% 100% 102% 102% 103% 99% 91% 77% DEEPI 3.41 100% 101% 103% 104% 104% 83% 62% 51% GODZL 2.77 100% 100% 100% 100% 71% 56% 35% 14% PTCAD 5.35 100% 101% 102% 107% 107% 106% 101% 77% SW1__ 6.02 100% 102% 102% 102% 102% 105% 88% 82% SIXTH 11.00 100% 111% 124% 128% 128% 129% 129% 129% TS2__ 3.88 100% 100% 101% 100% 96% 85% 72% 61% AP2__ 3.75 100% 100% 100% 93% 79% 63% 42% 32% MTRX1 5.83 100% 102% 102% 102% 102% 100% 95% 88% TARZN 5.00 100% 101% 103% 104% 94% 76% 54% 38% BGDAD 3.94 100% 103% 107% 107% 96% 76% 50% 33% MUMY1 3.58 100% 101% 102% 106% 106% 97% 72% 57% RUNBR 4.34 100% 100% 102% 103% 98% 95% 88% 75% HTGSC 4.72 100% 100% 100% 102% 104% 101% 101% 83% CASTA 7.71 100% 106% 106% 110% 110% 104% 95% 85% MIMP2 3.37 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 73% 56% 47% GLADI 5.39 100% 100% 104% 109% 104% 92% 77% 62% WWW__ 5.44 100% 101% 101% 101% 103% 100% 87% 64% PERFS 4.42 100% 100% 100% 94% 91% 76% 57% 42% MTPRS 5.81 100% 100% 100% 101% 102% 103% 92% 80% XMEN1 2.89 100% 103% 103% 92% 71% 54% 39% 28% SCAR1 3.71 100% 108% 113% 112% 89% 67% 52% 36% WLBNH 5.23 100% 100% 102% 104% 98% 91% 86% 77% HP1__ 3.52 100% 100% 100% 100% 93% 90% 87% 73% LOTR2 6.06 100% 100% 101% 101% 97% 80% 69% 51% SHRK1 6.32 100% 101% 102% 104% 92% 84% 75% 59% MONSI 4.09 100% 101% 107% 113% 105% 89% 83% 65% RH2__ 3.36 100% 100% 99% 96% 91% 82% 73% 68% MUMY2 2.97 100% 100% 101% 104% 94% 75% 52% 33% PEARL 3.36 100% 100% 101% 98% 83% 72% 45% 38% OCN11 4.81 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 87% 87% 65% JP3__ 2.97 100% 100% 101% 92% 73% 44% 33% 26% PNAPE 2.63 100% 101% 97% 87% 55% 43% 34% 26% SM1__ 3.52 100% 100% 100% 107% 101% 89% 75% 63% LOTR2 4.83 100% 100% 100% 96% 86% 74% 60% 46% SW3__ 3.51 100% 100% 100% 100% 76% 67% 57% 37% HP2__ 2.97 100% 100% 100% 92% 82% 75% 68% 55% SIGNS 3.79 100% 101% 102% 106% 105% 99% 93% 72% AP3__ 2.87 100% 100% 97% 86% 78% 69% 58% 50% MIB2_ 2.98 100% 102% 102% 100% 82% 58% 34% 21% ICEAG 3.81 100% 101% 101% 97% 91% 85% 78% 64% LOTR3 4.48 100% 100% 100% 95% 81% 69% 61% 51% FNEMO 4.84 100% 101% 102% 101% 99% 86% 78% 74% POTCB 6.04 100% 103% 104% 104% 97% 83% 74% 68% MTRX2 2.61 100% 100% 96% 90% 65% 51% 41% 22% BRUCE 3.57 100% 100% 102% 100% 88% 76% 55% 41% XMEN2 2.51 100% 100% 93% 82% 68% 55% 35% 35% ELF__ 5.57 100% 101% 101% 96% 93% 86% 73% 60% TERM3 2.77 100% 100% 97% 76% 55% 36% 18% 12% MTRX3 2.15 100% 100% 86% 59% 36% 18% 8% 3% CPBTD 4.75 100% 100% 98% 92% 85% 73% 50% 40% SHRK2 3.89 100% 101% 99% 92% 79% 71% 63% 51% SM2__ 3.51 100% 100% 98% 90% 72% 62% 46% 32% TPOTC 3.92 100% 104% 106% 107% 106% 112% 106% 94% MTFRS 5.53 100% 100% 100% 101% 98% 85% 71% 54% INCRE 3.71 100% 100% 94% 88% 81% 68% 49% 44% HP3__ 2.66 100% 100% 99% 88% 71% 52% 38% 26% DAYAT 2.72 100% 101% 94% 78% 65% 44% 21% 14% BRNSP 3.36 100% 100% 104% 94% 80% 66% 54% 47% NATTR 4.92 100% 107% 107% 106% 92% 73% 76% 72% POLAR 6.67 100% 100% 100% 100% 89% 79% 72% 69%
Sun May 29, 2005 6:25 pm

deathawk Madoshi Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro	And Finally, W/E to W/E changes thru Week 8. This one is a bit of an eye opener. I've included Year and Opening W/E in Millions for Reference. Code: Film YEAR OP W/E %C W2 %C W3 %C W4 %C W5 %C W6 %C W7 %C W8 TS1__ 1995 29.1 -30.8 -31.2 -20.9 +10.4 +60.1 -63.6 + 4.4 BATMF 1995 52.7 -44.7 -47.6 -39.6 -42.9 -31.9 -51.0 -54.4 APL13 1995 25.4 -22.6 -20.4 -20.3 -26.0 -20.7 -31.6 -28.1 POCOH 1995 29.5 -45.9 -32.6 -25.0 -29.1 -36.2 N/A N/A AV2PD 1995 37.8 -48.4 -30.9 -57.6 -38.8 -47.8 -54.2 -62.1 GLDNE 1995 26.2 -30.9 -51.2 -38.7 -40.8 N/A N/A -48.4 JUMAN 1995 11.1 - 4.3 +67.4 -57.6 - 6.8 -39.4 -26.6 -27.0 CASPR 1995 22.1 -39.3 -18.5 -39.2 -26.0 -43.3 -24.3 N/A SEVEN 1995 13.9 -11.3 -15.8 -17.0 -17.6 -43.4 - 7.5 -33.6 DH3__ 1995 22.2 -14.1 -51.1 -28.9 -36.3 - 7.0 -44.6 N/A ID4__ 1996 50.2 -29.8 -39.6 -35.1 -20.3 -21.1 -33.1 -18.4 TWIST 1996 41.1 - 9.7 -46.1 -30.4 -35.2 -14.9 -27.2 -11.8 MIMP1 1996 46.4 -52.4 -32.2 -41.3 -25.2 -25.0 -27.8 -56.4 JYMCG 1996 17.1 -23.2 + 6.8 -14.2 -41.7 + 7.2 -26.6 - 6.1 RANSM 1996 34.2 -34.6 -41.1 +31.2 -68.2 -45.8 +14.9 -21.6 101DM 1996 33.5 -58.4 -35.9 -21.8 +62.9 -35.5 -57.4 + 2.1 ROCK_ 1996 25.1 -26.2 -22.2 -23.7 -14.5 -53.3 -41.9 -49.2 NUTTY 1996 25.4 + 1.6 -52.7 -38.0 -29.5 -21.8 -30.4 -46.5 BIRDC 1996 18.3 -12.3 -17.1 -24.0 - 8.8 -26.5 -30.0 -29.0 TIMTK 1996 14.8 -10.5 -18.9 -24.5 -24.4 +15.4 -46.0 -25.9 TITAN 1997 28.6 +23.8 - 6.0 -13.8 +25.4 -29.9 + 2.7 -11.1 MIB1_ 1997 51.1 -41.1 -36.7 -35.1 -35.1 -29.4 -25.6 -31.5 JP2__ 1997 72.1 -52.7 -45.6 -32.8 -35.6 -43.8 -42.6 -48.1 LIARL 1997 31.4 -19.2 -28.0 -20.7 -30.0 -29.1 -18.5 -38.2 AIRF1 1997 37.1 -30.7 -30.7 -30.7 -36.3 + 8.3 -54.7 -27.2 AGAIG 1997 12.6 - 3.1 -26.2 +11.3 -25.0 -12.1 -23.9 +47.7 GDWH_ 1997 10.3 +33.6 -37.9 - 0.9 -19.0 +35.5 -30.1 + 2.6 SW4SE 1997 35.9 -32.4 -12.0 -48.4 -37.9 -43.2 -41.6 -60.6 MBFWD 1997 21.7 -30.7 -28.0 -23.1 -21.6 -30.8 -30.8 -29.3 TND__ 1997 25.1 -18.5 -32.6 -45.4 -15.9 -56.7 -36.0 -39.9 SVGPR 1998 30.6 -22.8 -26.3 -24.4 -22.9 -20.2 + 9.1 -49.0 ARMAG 1998 36.1 -34.7 -29.6 -32.7 -32.2 -29.7 -22.2 -33.9 TSAMY 1998 13.7 - 8.7 -13.0 -11.9 - 8.3 -12.9 + 8.9 +30.4 BUGLF 1998 33.3 -48.4 -34.8 -10.8 + 1.4 -12.8 -46.5 - 3.6 WTRBY 1998 39.4 -38.0 -35.7 -13.4 -52.1 -31.9 -29.2 -25.7 DRDL_ 1998 29.0 -32.2 -34.6 -26.4 -23.0 -37.1 -33.4 -47.2 RH1__ 1998 33.0 -35.8 -31.7 -23.4 -25.7 -28.9 -35.2 -12.6 DEEPI 1998 41.2 -43.5 -16.7 -48.0 -34.0 -33.8 -39.0 -40.2 GODZL 1998 44.0 -59.1 -46.1 -36.1 -51.9 -51.1 -44.2 -75.1 PTCAD 1998 25.3 -24.6 -33.4 - 5.0 -32.8 -25.9 -26.6 -19.0 SW1__ 1999 64.8 -20.7 -36.0 -22.1 -26.4 -25.2 - 5.8 -43.6 SIXTH 1999 26.7 - 3.4 - 7.0 -16.1 +45.6 -43.6 -32.1 -24.7 TS2__ 1999 57.4 -51.6 -34.3 -33.5 -14.5 +19.8 -42.4 - 7.3 AP2__ 1999 54.9 -42.8 -41.6 -34.3 -43.4 -36.0 -46.8 -47.1 MTRX1 1999 27.8 -18.8 -20.5 -29.5 -31.1 -32.5 -22.7 -36.8 TARZN 1999 34.2 -29.7 -19.6 -44.1 -30.3 -35.2 -37.8 -43.7 BGDAD 1999 41.5 -35.4 -40.3 -35.0 -42.4 -40.7 -57.8 -47.9 MUMY1 1999 43.4 -42.7 -44.5 - 6.8 -42.3 -26.1 -41.5 -32.3 RUNBR 1999 35.1 -40.7 -33.8 -32.7 -26.1 +25.8 -55.5 -32.1 HTGSC 2000 55.1 - 6.6 -48.0 -31.2 -26.0 + 6.7 -50.5 -65.6 CASTA 2000 58.9 + 7.3 -28.3 -11.0 -43.6 -27.4 - 7.7 -31.0 MIMP2 2000 57.8 -53.3 -36.2 -34.1 -33.2 -35.3 -33.0 -29.7 GLADI 2000 34.8 -29.2 -19.9 -13.6 -50.9 -15.6 -24.2 -28.2 WWW__ 2000 33.6 -35.7 - 3.7 -25.3 -25.2 -41.1 -36.2 -25.7 PERFS 2000 41.3 -34.4 -36.8 -43.5 -22.4 -47.1 -30.9 -34.1 MTPRS 2000 28.6 -26.0 -24.3 - 6.0 -16.0 -18.2 -38.4 + 1.9 XMEN1 2000 54.5 -56.9 -46.0 -46.7 -38.8 -38.3 -46.3 + 1.6 SCAR1 2000 42.4 -38.1 -42.3 -45.1 -48.9 -40.5 -49.0 -47.1 WLBNH 2000 29.7 -23.0 -39.6 -29.5 -30.6 -31.7 +29.0 -53.5 HP1__ 2001 90.3 -36.3 -58.9 -37.7 -32.7 -28.5 +54.8 -46.0 LOTR2 2001 47.2 -18.0 -40.6 -29.6 -23.0 -37.4 -26.9 -36.6 SHRK1 2001 42.3 + 0.3 -33.7 -41.4 -20.2 -21.1 -25.9 -22.1 MONSI 2001 62.6 -27.2 -50.1 + 5.9 -62.2 -27.6 -24.5 -23.7 RH2__ 2001 67.4 -50.9 -42.7 -39.1 -19.7 -38.1 -28.9 -14.0 MUMY2 2001 68.1 -50.5 -39.4 -25.9 -48.8 -39.4 -42.5 -41.6 PEARL 2001 59.1 -50.0 -50.2 -33.0 -30.8 -30.7 -31.4 -39.3 OCN11 2001 38.1 -42.1 -33.4 +14.9 -34.6 -30.0 -26.2 -44.4 JP3__ 2001 50.8 -55.6 -45.6 -38.7 -41.0 -45.6 -26.6 -45.2 PNAPE 2001 68.5 -59.8 -51.7 -46.3 -49.8 -18.2 -52.6 -32.5 SM1__ 2002 114.8 -37.8 -36.9 -36.7 -49.8 -28.0 -27.1 -39.4 LOTR2 2002 62.0 -21.2 -48.8 -41.0 -30.4 -35.7 -23.0 -30.9 SW3__ 2002 80.0 -40.2 -56.1 -33.3 -32.6 -45.4 -28.8 -33.2 HP2__ 2002 88.4 -52.2 -23.9 -68.6 -37.3 -30.9 -48.1 -28.1 SIGNS 2002 60.1 -51.0 -34.3 -26.2 - 5.9 -41.6 -31.2 -35.2 AP3__ 2002 73.1 -57.4 -58.0 -33.2 -36.5 - 0.1 -50.9 -31.9 MIB2_ 2002 52.1 -53.2 -40.4 -41.8 -43.3 -57.2 -51.2 -44.8 ICEAG 2002 46.3 -35.1 -39.7 -25.2 -36.8 -31.2 -15.0 -52.8 LOTR3 2003 72.6 -30.3 -44.3 -49.6 -28.1 -33.6 -21.7 -19.2 FNEMO 2003 70.3 -33.7 -39.1 -25.5 -33.9 -17.6 -26.5 -14.1 POTCB 2003 46.6 -27.0 -32.0 -18.6 -30.9 -29.6 -20.6 + 9.6 MTRX2 2003 91.8 -56.5 -60.7 -41.4 -37.5 -31.4 -34.7 -39.6 BRUCE 2003 68.0 -45.1 -40.1 -36.3 -31.1 -36.8 -35.2 -40.7 XMEN2 2003 85.6 -53.2 -56.8 -39.3 -51.5 -41.0 -42.1 -22.4 ELF__ 2003 31.3 -15.4 -28.9 +15.7 -62.9 -25.0 - 8.6 -29.0 TERM3 2003 44.0 -55.8 -52.1 -45.7 -41.0 -45.6 -49.7 -42.1 MTRX3 2003 48.5 -66.1 -57.2 -31.9 -71.8 -46.6 -62.4 -10.0 CPBTD 2003 27.6 -21.5 -45.7 -23.4 -29.1 -32.9 -41.2 -24.3 SHRK2 2004 108.0 -33.1 -47.4 -38.5 -40.2 -26.7 -42.9 -23.8 SM2__ 2004 88.2 -48.7 -45.2 -39.4 -42.6 -36.9 -35.3 -31.1 TPOTC 2004 83.8 -36.5 -39.7 -39.6 -35.1 -15.8 +43.5 -73.4 MTFRS 2004 46.1 - 9.5 -31.7 -32.2 -49.9 -17.1 -40.1 -28.1 INCRE 2004 70.5 -28.7 -47.2 -11.1 -61.8 -44.1 -38.0 -22.5 HP3__ 2004 93.7 -62.7 -48.4 -37.6 -47.2 -31.8 -31.9 -39.2 DAYAT 2004 68.7 -59.5 -47.8 -44.3 -41.3 -57.2 -47.0 -42.8 BRNSP 2004 52.5 -54.0 -40.5 -40.2 -24.8 -28.2 -11.5 -43.1 NATTR 2004 35.1 - 8.5 -47.1 -42.2 -38.7 -34.2 +70.7 -37.2 POLAR 2004 23.3 -32.8 +23.8 -44.4 -11.0 -12.3 -22.4 -14.1
Sun May 29, 2005 6:39 pm

deathawk Madoshi Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 12:35 pm Posts: 631 Location: Cephiro	Now - for some observations: 1) Dolcevita - you are absoultely correct in your sense that films are losing theaters more quickly now than in years past. If you look at the top of the chart, back in 95-97, it was quite common for films to hang on to their full count for at least 4 weeks. In fact, some of the numbers pretty much imply that the guaruntee used to be 4 weeks, not the current 2. However, I would say that this quicker exodus is a result of theater owners reacting to front loading, and not the other way round. The change has been recent - in the last 3 years or so. And even in that time frame, films that show decent legs are still able to retain count. Its just that films with no legs at all are now tossed out more quickly. 2) Even given the front loading, and the obvious willingness of theater owners to toss films more quickly, what is also clear is that films do not lose significant count until they drop well under 10M a week. Theater owners seem more reactive to the previous week drop than anything else. With one exception, noted below 3) The placement of holidays later in a films run has a significant impact on theater count. Most of the small drops/gains these films show in weeks 4-8 are the result of a holiday weekend. I also note that films also retain higher count or lose less than would seem otherwise indicated if a holiday is nearby. It would seem then that theater owners remain willing to keep a struggling film an extra week or two to squeeze out some holiday cash, and in some cases, allow for re-expansion if a holiday is coming up.
Sun May 29, 2005 6:56 pm

Eagle Site Owner Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:09 pm Posts: 14631 Location: Pittsburgh	Damn thats a lota data to digest. _________________
Sun May 29, 2005 7:06 pm
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