Attack of the Clones increased 45.1% on Saturday with competiton from Spider-Man and the other Memorial Day weekend openers (which didn't hurt much anyways). I don't see why Sith can't get over 40%. Madagascar isn't going to kill it.

In fact Madagascar might be a dead duck to begin with. The cream of the crop on RT is a pitiful 33%.

Sith already isn't too family-friendly (much less family-friendly than AOTC) and now the families who would have seen it on Sat are most likely going to go to Madagascar now.

Think Shark Tale.

I will restate my opinion from the Madagascar thread:

Reviews in family movies also mean absolutely nothing. The Pacifier and Are We There Yet had some of the worst reviews for family movies this year, and yet they were the best performing (in my opinion) family movies.

That is correct. I was thinking Shrek type numbers till a week ago. Now Shark Tale is a better comparision.

MGCasey: That is why it will do Robots/ST instead of Shrek numbers.

Shark Tale opened better than Shrek

Sith probably doesn't have a huge family audience in the first place so I don't think Madagascar will affect it that much. Last Memorial Day Weekend we had two movies with huge grosses that managed to coexist and I don't see why that can't happen again, although it might be three movies this time. :wink:

The total not the opening. :razz:

I can see SW dropping 52% next weekend, to $52M, and then 59-60% on its third weekend, to $21M. But even with that, I don't see how it could NOT reach $340M+. AotC had a 4.33 multiplier after its third weekend; Sith would need a 2.93 multiplier after that same weekend in order to stop at $340M.

With that said, $400M is looking less and less likely. It may have trouble clearing $365M.

I don't think it will affect its opening weekend that much though. It just limits its total potential. Instead of having a great multiplier of 5-6 because of being a great crowd-pleaser, it just goes the way of a standard kid movie in summer and have a multiplier of 3-4.

Not sure why people are underpredicting ROTS. $340M, come on folks, get real. This is probably the absolute minimum that it can get even if it goes an iota of Matrix Reloaded way. Now, I don't know ANY reason whatsoever that would prompt it to go that way. Last time I checked NO movie has ever made as much as ROTS till date. In its 6th day, it stands at the very pinnacle of all time records, with a mammoth weekend yet to arrive. Even if Madagascar pulls in $70M over the 4-day weekend, this one still will top it off. The force is really strong with this one, can't you see?

Casey, I don't know which planet you live on. Everyone I have talked to loved the movie. I have yet to meet a person who says they didn't like it, OR, that its worse than any other Star Wars movie. This is a must-see for everyone who even vaguely know who Darth Vader is. This is THE movie that everyone was waiting for. No talking animals or Waterboy can compete with it. Deal with it!

Did the gory scenes of Passion of the Christ kept people away? Box Office bows to good movies. The hunger of the movie going public is satisfied by good movies not by average movies or one-time wonders. This one has over 2 decades of energy build-up and expectations associated with it, and there is nothing like your wish coming true.

DP, I respect your predictions, and like your analysis, and I respectfully disagree. There is no way this giant is going to have any multiplier south of 3.0. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up getting a multiplier of >3.5. $400 is a lock in my opinion. But, that's just my opinion.

Okay, enough of rambling. Nice to get back to WorldOfKJ. Nice to see how this community has grown since its commencement. Keep up the good work folks.

I think what matters at this point (for the effect on Star Wars) is the opening. I think in total Madagascar will fall somewhere inbetween Shark Tale and Shrek. Remember, Shark Tale didn't have summer weekdays.

Well said. =D>

Well, I'm sure it kept many families away (although not all). Although I think The Passion was always bound to naturally have good legs, and I predicted so before release. It not only had Easter, but it also attracted an older audience that does not go to theaters often. That type of audience is less likely to rush out opening weekend. Furthermore, it had an extremely low number of theaters and prints for a film of its size pushing business to the following weeks. WOM though did help as well IMO.



Thanks, I'm glad to hear you like the analysis.

Well, I doubt I can say anything extra to convince you, so we will just have to see. :wink:



Welcome back. :wink: The forums have been doing well, and it has indeed been great to see. Recently the BO Bash has been extremely active. Thank you ROTS! :wink:

BTW, here is my little analysis on the daily numbers that I posted in another thread:

TPM had the 28th of May as its second Friday, for AOTC it was the 24th. At this time of the year weekday numbers keep getting stronger as the summer starts and schools/colleges get out, so 4 days can make quite a difference. Higher weekday numbers mean better Sunday and Monday holds with weaker Friday increases. ROTS has the 27th as its second Friday making it more similar to TPM. This explains the weaker Sunday hold for AOTC. Even compared to TPM, it was more frontloaded, but the gap in the legs was not as great as the difference in drops: 10% Vs. 22%. Also, I think this hurt AOTC a bit on Monday. The gap between the 56% drop of AOTC and the 50% drop of TPM is greater then the overall gap in frontloading. I'd say the same about the Tuesday drops as it is also reflective of the effect on the weekday numbers. In both cases ROTS also had an advantage over AOTC on that day, yet it still dropped more. This finally also explains the better Friday increase for AOTC (75% Vs. 99%); weaker weekdays mean bigger Friday increases. So, with a more similar release date to TPM then AOTC, I would compare ROTS to TPM, and I expect the Friday increase to follow TPM's pattern.

Look at ROTS compared to TPM:



You can see the gap closing very rapidly. I know TPM had great legs, and ROTS is bound not to even get close to matching it, but the gap in legs is huge here. ROTS already dropped 50% relative to TPM, and good legs and all, TPM still dropped 20% memorial day weekend.

Can you really tell me based on this trend, that the dailies for TPM won't soon go ahead of ROTS's?

Well, I'm going to plug my new BO game here. :razz: For everyone who thinks I'm going too low on this film (nearly everyone here :wink:) you can predict ROTS in the new game and prove me wrong. Check my sig. :wink:

Well, if you look at trends, and you give Sith a reasonable sized drop this weekend, it will gross about 60 mill for the 3 days and about 72-75 for the 4 day weekend. AFter that, this film will level off and I thinkm it's legs are going to be quite strong. I honestly don't see this film grossing anything less than 390 mill. And if it does, that is more than anyone could have imagined, hoped for, dreamed or wished. 395 mill is massive and I have nothing but respect for a film with it's sixth episode still kicking this much ass.

Do you really think that if it gets to $395 million, the studio won't try and push it past $400 million?

Sure, I'm sure they would like it to make 400 mill, but if it runs out of gas, where is the last 5 mill going to come from? Having said that, I do think it will make more than 400 mill. I'm just saying that if it doesn't, 395 is notihng to get upset with.

They could re-release it over Labor Day or something. Just like what happened to Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle when it struggled to $100 million. Something similar was done with The Italian Job as well as far as I remember.

Gone In 60 Seconds had the same thing as well.

I may be in a minority here, but if its going to finish a few million shy of $400, I actually don't see Fox bothering with a re-expansion.

For the three films mentioned, that $100M number was important for ancilliary revenues, so it made ROI sense to get the prints back out there, sign contracts with theaters and spend a couple million on ads. Sith does not need that sort of help, its ancilliary revenues are assured at this point.

Now if it were the $600M figure, yes, I would see them pushing for it like there was no tomorrow. Something I suspect we won't be worried about.

Ah, indeed. I always kept wondering how a not so well-reviewed movie like Gone in 60 Seconds, being a generic summer actioner could open to $25 million and cross $100 million That's the answer.

By the way, Pearl Harbor TRIED to do the same as well. But failed

Well, GI60S had good legs even before the release. I'm not sure why, I thought it was one of Bruckhiemer's weakest.