http://www.worldofkj.com/Box-Madagascar.php

Good analysis. Love the charts as always.

Marketing for this movie REALLY needs to pick up.

Yeah, I agree. I've seen very little marketing in comparison to movies like Robots and Shark Tale.

i've been catching trailers recently

then again, i've been spending time on ytv and teletoons.

the thing is attached to every damn item in the grocery store (similar to skrek 2).

Its got cereal, poptarts, cereal bars, more cereal, sugar, tacos, and the list goes on and on.

Most I have seen since ... well ... sith!

I haven't seen one trailer since I went to see The Incredibles.

I think Hulk might be the all time leader for that one.

It's pointless to market anything when there is a Sith in the near future. Wait until next Monday, we will be sick with ads by then.

I was about to post that.

That, in a nutshell, is the problem: When you've got Sith coming before you, nobody will pay you much attention.

The film is being heavily marketed to its target audience (kids/families), which are the crucial segment to ensure its success. It can pick up teens post-SW3 release.

I think it will open slightly better then Shark Tale I'm think $51m/$61m.

BTW, that's an excellent article.

Isn't it though?

On another note: Last night we got in some more Madagascar crackers, fruit snacks, granolla bars, popcorn, cereal, tacos, and the list goes on and on. SO much crap.

But your right, I haven't seen anything in the way of marketing ... it's all sith.

Well, I'm wondering if it's true that the Madagascar trailer will really be with Star Wars. If so, that'd be a HUGE help, and it'd make sense as they're Lucas and Dreamworks and WOTW's trailer will be attached to nearly every print. But either way, how much marketing did you guys really see for Shrek 2? I barely saw anything for that, and I remember most users didn't either and predicted the opening to be in some cases almost half what it ended up being.

Shrek 2 ... opened on a wednesday ... did crap ... everyone said BOMB.

Then KA BOOOM in came the weekend.

Oh man, don't remind me.

I hate how that film did. It made way too much money. Way too much! It and SM2 should have switched friggin' places

Before reading that article, I had no idea what the story was. I had no idea what the film looks like. I hadn't seen even one trailer, so I checked it out now. It looks decent, but fails to me make laugh, and fails to make me want to see it.

This is coming from someone who always follows upcoming movies closely. There just isn't any hype for this. I fail to see the attraction that could make this a megahit. And I've loved every Pixar movie so far, I loved Shrek 1 & 2, I loved Ice Age. The characters and story in this just don't seem very appealing. The concept has good potential, but it seems they didn't make the most of it. Where are all the good jokes? Action? The trailers have ZERO action, and it has been always an important selling point for CGI animations. And the characters just come off as... Boring. I liked the penguins, thought.

I can see Shark's Tale numbers, but nothing more. I think this film is being seriously overpredicted around here.

Shark Tale opened in October. By opening on the Memorial weekend during the summer, Madagascar is guaranteed to have a better Friday and Sunday. That alone will push it over 50M.

I think it can get to the 180-190 million range. I don't see it as a 200+ grosser, unless the TV campaing and WOM are really good.

I'm following General Gates' lead and bumping this up. Does anyone still agree with me?


And goodness! The charts are already outdated

this movie confuses me. I feel the same way about it as I did about Shrek 2, but the awful reviews almost gaurentee it wont have legs like that movie did. When Shrek 2 opened o only 11 or so on wednesday, then dropped even lower on thursday ... I thought that sucker was dead in the water. You said it would go on to make 400+ I would have laughed at you.

Madagascar has too much competition. Longest yard should open over 35, Sith should only drop about 55%, there just isn't much money to get.

Eh, what? Last year, the top 5 films had a combined 3-day gross of $170m.

Even if Sith drops a paltry 40% (hah...), it would make "only" $65m. A 55% drop would give it $49m, so where does the other potential $121m go to?

The market can take as much as audiences decide it can take.

I still think it has a shot at a great opening.

Box, you spend a lotttt of time doing these things and it definately shows. What i would say is that I definately agree with your train of thought; and the implication that Madagascar will be anything less than this years big CGI superhit is just stupid - its hillarious trailers have been playing successfully with some of the biggest releases of last year.

But to be honest; as frontloaded as Sith may be; i think its still going to be buzzing very very well this weekend and its still going to be putting bums in seats; the spillover audience too afraid of packed houses last weekend will head in, and then theres those repeat viewings.....

I wouldnt expect hefty drops like some people are predicting. Its a holiday frame.

So, box, you using your prediction for the derby this week? :wink:

And, is your prediction still the same?

I think:

$52,500,000 3 day. A $14,000 pta on it's 3,750 screens.
Bigger pta than SHARK TALE and ROBOTS. But smaller than THE INCREDIBLES.

This movie is getting hammered on RT. Hope this is not a repeat of The Ring2 from DW.