Congratulations to SW fans and George Lucas on a fantastic opening.

I have been in SF and KC the last week, so I am a bit out of it mentally and physically. Anyways, at BOM I used to do tracking for big movies that I found interesting. I will attempt to do it with ROTS, but let me warn you because I will be going to Scotland next week I will not have much time to devote to it like I did the LOTR series. It will be more like like my SM2 analysis, which was probably my weakest analysis. Also, I am not as big a fan of the series like I was with SM and LOTR. I haven't even seen the movie (although I will probably see it this week or at least on Saturday), but I didn't see Shrek2 until well into its run and I was relatively accurate with my analysis of that film (I ended up not liking Shrek2 once I finally saw it).

ROTS has kind of snuck up on me like Shrek2 did last year. When AOTC finished its run, I seriously doubted ROTS could do much more than $300m. I was really wondering if it could make $300m. Before it opened I had upped my prediction to the $350-400m range, just because it seemed like buzz and WOM on the film were very strong. All the factors that fanboys threw out as reasons why this movie would do much better I think have had a minimal impact: the appearance of Chewbacca, the appearance of Darth Vader, this being the last SW movie, etc. The two biggest factors I think for the resurgence of the series have been the good/great reviews of this movie, and the fact that AOTC was much better liked by fans than TPM. This movie has gotten an 82% rating on RT compared to 65% for AOTC, and 63% for TPM. Also the individual reviews are much stronger, if you read the reviews for the first two movies the reviews would recommend the films but with serious warnings or conditions. This movie is getting unqualified recommendations. On the fan front this movie is getting great WOM, IMDB: TPM-6.4, AOTC-7.0. ROTS-8.2; Yahoo: TPM-B, AOTC-B, ROTS-A-. Although I thought TPM was a marginally better film than AOTC, I was in a small minority. If you read my post at BOM on HP3 and how previous installments affect sequels, then you understand my rational. I will dig up the post and some of the others if new posters are interested in these ideas.

So, I will not do any numbers crunching until the actuals are released this afternoon and I have more time to digest this massive opening. What to look for with the actuals: Don't be alarmed if the actuals are $155m that is a reasonble estimate for such a massive opening (I actully think it might have topped $160m), if the actuals are $150 that is cause for concern on its long term b.o. potential but it should still reach $400m. At this point I don't think this movie can make less than $400m, I am concerned with the PG-13 rating impacting its ablility to get over $450m. Families with a 5,8, and 10 y.o. children can't just take the whole family like they would in the past with SW films. One parent my take the oldest child, losing three other admissions. However, so far this movie has surpassed my initial predictions.

These are some of the previous posts I was referring to in my original post. Some of you who are not familiar with how these posts work might find the ideas interesting.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/vie ... ing#999657

Tracking Spiderman

This is a compilation of a some of my previous posts with some new thoughts. After writing them I realized I might as well do another one of these.

Ok, for those of you new to BOM, or have never noticed one of my Vs. threads here are links to the first two, to give a basic feel of how they work.

The first one was Seabiscuit v. Road To Perdition

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/vie ... sc&start=0

The second one was Elf v. Santa Clause2

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/vie ... 444#649444

When I tracked Seabiscuit v. ROTP, I didn't even create the thread. However, lilmac's inability to grasp the legs that Seabiscuit would have dumbfounded me. So, I started tracking the two movies in hopes others would see that Seabiscuit would easily gross over $100m on a "paltry" $20m opening. Seabiscuit has the biggest multiplier this year. Before the POTC fans fall out of their chairs-I don't know how to qualify POTC, since it opened on a Wednesday, but according to my non-traditional opener formula it has a multiplier of 5 with its "adjusted" $61.4m opening.

The second one I started when people kept stating Elf would make almost as much as SC2 or maybe a little more, when it was quite clear to me after the second weekend it would make quite a bit more.

I try to be objective, even though I have only done this with movies I really enjoyed. If ROTK is not going to make a specific total, I will be the first to state it. However, if it is trending towards something positive, I try to be conservative and won't jump to a conclusion that it will make it. I try to be a fan, but not a fanatic.

I know you can get these numbers in BOM, but sometimes it helps to have them presented in slightly different presentation, to get a better grasp of what they mean. I know plenty of b.o. veterans who misinterpret the b.o. data because of the way it is presented. I know I fall into this trap too often myself. I remember after the first few weeks, I thought Seabiscuit was starting to lose its lead to RTP, because it had been beating it by a couple of hundred thousand, but then was only one hundred thousand ahead a day. However, its percentage in relation had actually gone up. I was thinking size matters, but I was looking at the wrong size.

Right before Christmas, Elf was winding down and a new film interested me. I did the ROTK in comparison to the other films in the series. It wasn't too bad in terms of projections.

ROTK
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/vie ... ng&start=0

Then I went out on a limb and did it on a movie that took BOM by storm along with the nation. This was a really hard one anyways, but even harder in that I never actually saw the film so I felt really vulnerable to being really wrong. I did a pretty good job in the begining, but then misread the effects of the 40 days of Lent and did not see the inevitable large drops after Easter. Still I think I did a decent job on a movie that I didn't really care about as moviegoer and really broke many molds in terms of what a small independent religious film can do.

The Passion of the Christ
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/vie ... ing#791642

The last one I did was Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. This one was hard too, because it opened much wider for a small film than usual and did not have the decent expansion I expected. I still think I did an ok job, but like the Passion I never got a great handle on how the film was performing.

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/vie ... ng&start=0

WOM on Sequels-Touching on Shrek 2 and HP3

WOM on sequels is dependent on the last film to a certain degree. AOTC was "frontloaded" and seemed to not perform well, because it was followed by the "disappointing" TPM. Honestly, in my own sample of public opinion, I am the only person I know that liked TPM better than AOTC. Everyone seemed to like AOTC (7.1 IMDB) better, but it had weak legs compared to TPM (6.5 IMDB). TPM's strength at the b.o. had much more to do with the good will of the first films, than the strength of the film itself. AOTC paid for the sins of its predecessor.

The reason the LOTR movies were able to have the legs they did was each movie in the series was considered great in its own right and built on that legacy (it didn't hurt they were all made at the same time by the same crew). A similiar thing with the Pixar movies. Shrek 2 is considered good in its own right, but the first one was loved by millions. It was the highest selling DVD at one point. Shrek 2 (7.8 IMDB) is making its money as much on the back of Shrek (8.1 IMDB) as on how good it is in its own right.

Look at the James Bond series. I am only referring to the original Sean Connery ones of the 1963-71 era. I am not including George Lazenby or Roger Moore for consistency purposes. It started out as a smashing success from the start, with each movie building on the success of the proceeding one and each being slightly better than the one before it. Until it hits its apex with Goldfinger, Goldfinger was the Spiderman of its time making an adjusted figure of $399.8m and it was the best movie in the series. The next movie Thunderball, while not as good as the first three was still good and ended up making $451m (adjusted) more than its superior predecessors and any Bond film ever (adjusted). However, the next film You Only Live Twice was the first Bond film to not do as well as the previous one, even though it was as good as Thunderball. The last Sean Connery Bond film of this time frame, Diamonds Are Forever made a little more than YOL, but adjusted made a small percentage less.

Here are the Bond films and their grosses, date of release, and IMDB scores. Sorry yahoo's response size is too low (in the low hundreds) to be considered to be of any value.

7 Thunderball UA $63,595,658 - 12/21/65 - 6.8
11 Goldfinger UA $51,081,062 - 12/22/64 -7.7
14 Diamonds Are Forever UA $43,819,547 - 12/17/71 - 6.6
15 You Only Live Twice UA $43,084,787 - 6/13/67 - 6.8
18 From Russia with Love UA $24,796,765 - 4/8/64 - 7.3
21 Dr. No UA $16,067,035 5/8/63 - 7.2


I think HP3 is suffering some of that at this point. The first two had 7.3 IMDB scores and HP3 has a score of 7.8 at this point. I have no idea if the other two movies were this high (or even higher) and have gone down. On Yahoo, HP3 has a B+ with both critics and fans (it sometimes goes to an A- with the fans), the first two had a B rating with the critics and B+ from the fans. From everyone I have spoken, they seem to like this the best (I do too, so I may influence their responses). If being as good as the last movie were the only criteria, HP3 would be doing better than it has so far at the B.O., because it is at least on par with the first two HP movies, if not considered slightly better.

I think COS made less at the B.O., because it opened two weeks before Thansgiving while HP1 opened a week before. I think that alone was worth about a $20-30m difference. Also, the first one brought in curious moviegoers who opted out after the first one (just not their type of movie), this probably accounts for about $10-20m. This was a problem of the series compared to the LOTR series (8.8-9.0 IMDB) it was very good, but not great according the general masses. Then, perhaps $10-20m was due to HP1 being generally better liked than HP2. So you end up with $55.6m difference.

If HP3 continues to do poorly, then you can probably assume it had poor WOM on its own. However, if HP4 opens much bigger the HP1 (assuming HP4 is comparable in terms of quality to the rest of the series), then HP3 was more likely well liked.

Every 6 months or so I write about WOM and the misconceptions we have on what it actually is. We think of it as one finite concept, if a movie is good its WOM is good, if it is bad its WOM is bad. However, WOM is a complex combination of many factors. Of course, if a movie is good or bad is the most important factor. However, there are many other factors that influence WOM:

1. If it is a sequel, was the last movie good or bad? Is this movie the same, better, or worse?

2. How much competition does it face at the box office, in terms of avg. mainstream movies, perceived "blockbusters", and especially movies that appeal to the same demo?

3. What is the schedule like for the movie? Will it be opening with holidays or the Summer in its favor, or will it have to succeed without any of these hidden bonuses?

4. Is the distributor fighting for the film or just going through the motions? This can have an effect on movies staying in theaters longer and getting added promotional opportunities later in its run which increase it total b.o. Shrek 2 just started Baskin-Robbins cross promotions on T.V. this weekend.

Originally I was going to post this in the Friday's Numbers thread, but it was too long. Also, I would like posters to contradict or butress my points. I started this as a response to so many of you that state unequivically that HP3 must have bad WOM, because it is dropping so much in comparison to the first two movies in the series. It is very difficult to gauge the differences since the release date is so different than the other two movies. The LOTR series was easy to compare, and even then people would come to the wrong conclusions, because of each year being one day off.

So flame away at your leisure or add a comment. Thanks.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/vie ... hp3#963026

These are always a joy to read, mdana.

Keep it up.

When will the actuals be released? Anyone know ?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?pa ... rwars3.htm

Thursday: $50,013,859
Friday: $33,529,613
Saturday: $40,693,760
Sunday: $34,212,468

3-day total: $108,435,841
4-day Total: $158,449,700

Fox got it right. Superb weekend for Star Wars!

PEACE, Mike

PEACE, Mike

Still beat Shrek 2... \:D/

THANKS ALOT MIKE.

Nice to see the numbers hold true.

ROTS v. AOTC v. TPM (all % to the right using TPM as the baseline)

Theater Counts 3661 v. 3161 v. 2970 ( 123%/ 106%)
Print Counts 9400 v. 6100 v. 5500 ( 171%/ 111%)

Wed. N/A v. N/A v. 28.54 (NA%/ NA%)
Thur. 50.01 v. 30.14 v. 12.31 ( 406%/ 245%)

Cumulative Total 50.01 v. 30.14 v. 40.84 ( 122%/ 73.8%)

Fri 33.53 v. 24.40 v. 18.47 ( 182%/ 132%)
Sat. 40.69 v. 31.25 v. 24.41 ( 167%/ 128%)
Sun 34.21 v. 24.37 v. 21.93 ( 156%/ 111%)

Week-end Total 108.44 v. 80.03 v. 64.82 ( 167%/ 123%)
Cumulative Total 158.45 v. 110.17 v. 105.66 ( 150%/ 104%)

Mon ??? v. 10.66 v. 10.88
Tue. ??? v. 7.5 v. 8.18

PTA (Per Theater Avg)
Wed. N/A v. $N/A v. $9,610 ( 172%/ 133%)
Thur. $13,661 v. $9,535 v. $4,144 ( 330%/ 231%)

Fri $9,159 v. $7,721 v. $6,218 ( 147%/ 124%)
Sat. $11,115 v. $9,887 v. $8,220 ( 135%/ 120%)
Sun $9,345 v. $7,709 v. $7,384 ( 127%/ 104%)
First Week-end $29,619 v. $25,317 v. $21,825 ( 136%/ 116%)

PPA (Per Print Avg)
Wed. N/A v. N/A v. $5,189 ( N/A%/ N/A%)
Thur. $5,309 v. $4,941 v. $2,238 ( 237%/ 221%)
Fri $3,552 v. $4,000 v. $3,358 ( 106%/ 119%)
Sat. $4,310 v. $5,123 v. $4,438 ( 97%/ 115%)
Sun $3,624 v. $3,995 v. $3,987 ( 91%/ 100%)

Percentage Drop
Thur. N/A v. N/A v. -46.7
Fri -33 v. -19 v. +50
Sat. +21.4 v. +28.1 v. +32.2
Sun -15.9 v. -22 v. -10.2

Absolute Min-$332.3m Matix Reloaded Scenerio (Less than 5%,0.1-5% range)
Realistic Min-$396.5m (10%, 5-15% range)
Conservative Tracking-$434.7m AOTC Scenerio (25%, 15-40% range )
mdana Tracking (what I really think ROTS will finish)-
Likely-$470m (20%,40-60% range)
Possible-507m (20%, 60-80% range
Realistic Max-$540m (15%, 80-95% range)
Absolute Max-$633m(1-5%, 95-99.9% range)

The range is like a target range, with 50% being the bullseye.

At this point I think the movie will split the difference between AOTC and TPM in terms of drops and rises. It won't have the legs of TPM, but it won't drop as quickly as AOTC. I am concerned about the PPA, but for such a massive opening compared to the previous two movies it may not mean that much. I will try to tighten up my range numbers and do more analysis. I am still digesting these numbers they are so massive.

ROTS is currently the highest grossing movie released since Feb. 11th, 2005-$158.45m

Soon to be Vanquished-
Hitch is the highest grossing movie released since Feb. 11th, 2005-Est. date ROTS passes-May 25th, 2005, Actual date-???
Meet the Fockers is the highest grossing movie released since Dec. 22nd, 2004-Est. date ROTS passes-May 29th, 2005, Actual date-???

mdana's Power number for Monday-$16.07m. I split the difference between AOTC and TPM and am guessing about a 53% drop. Should be over $15m which would be an amazing number in its own right. This movie depending on how well it does on Monday should be able to get to Memorial Day without dropping below $10m which would be 12 days straight.

I think we will see a 60%+ Monday drop.

no star wars film has fallen over 60% on its first monday, and no star wars film will :razz:

Good to read through the old stuff mdana. :wink: Like when I was continuously underestimating Eternal Sunshine by a bit. hehe. Well, others did predict 40m+. :razz:

Anyway, I wish Kadence were here, he was a great poster. Then I could reply to that long post of his as I think his arguements were flawed. I do believe the LOTR films were frontloaded however you look at it. Movies like The Bourne Supremacy and Harry Potter 3 are simly more examples of films that were initially frontloaded regardless of WOM. There is no doubt in my mind that with LOTR having the following that it did, that those films would have dropped 50%+ if released in say the summer.

As for ROTS, I have difficulty seeing it reach 400m. My own projection is 340m at this point, and while I might be going low, about 375m would be optimistic IMO.

We will see. :wink:

58%, you were close though.

340 million is pretty low at this point unless it crashes on Memorial weekend which most people just can't see happening imo.

TAKEN!!!

ROTS v. AOTC v. TPM (all % to the right using TPM as the baseline)

Theater Counts 3661 v. 3161 v. 2970 ( 123%/ 106%)
Print Counts 9400 v. 6100 v. 5500 ( 171%/ 111%)

Wed. N/A v. N/A v. 28.54 (NA%/ NA%)
Thur. $50.01m v. $30.14m v. $12.31m ( 406%/ 245%)

Cumulative Total $50.01m v. $30.14m v. $40.84m ( 122%/ 73.8%)

Fri. $33.53m v. $24.40m v. $18.47m ( 182%/ 132%)
Sat. $40.69m v. $31.25m v. $24.41m ( 167%/ 128%)
Sun. $34.21m v. $24.37m v. $21.93m ( 156%/ 111%)

Week-end Total $108.44m v. $80.03m v. $64.82m ( 167%/ 123%)
Cumulative Total $158.45m v. $110.17m v. $105.66m ( 150%/ 104%)

Mon. $14.35m v. $10.66m v. $10.88m ( 132%/ 98%)
Tue. ??? v. $7.5m v. $8.18m

PTA (Per Theater Avg)
Wed. N/A v. $N/A v. $9,610 ( 172%/ 133%)
Thur. $13,661 v. $9,535 v. $4,144 ( 330%/ 231%)

Fri. $9,159 v. $7,721 v. $6,218 ( 147%/ 124%)
Sat. $11,115 v. $9,887 v. $8,220 ( 135%/ 120%)
Sun. $9,345 v. $7,709 v. $7,384 ( 127%/ 104%)
First Week-end $29,619 v. $25,317 v. $21,825 ( 136%/ 116%)

Mon. $3,920 v. $3,372 v. $3,664 ( 107%/ 92%)
Tue. ??? v. $2,374 v. $2,755

PPA (Per Print Avg)
Wed. N/A v. N/A v. $5,189 ( N/A%/ N/A%)
Thur. $5,309 v. $4,941 v. $2,238 ( 237%/ 221%)
Fri. $3,552 v. $4,000 v. $3,358 ( 106%/ 119%)
Sat. $4,310 v. $5,123 v. $4,438 ( 97%/ 115%)
Sun. $3,624 v. $3,995 v. $3,987 ( 91%/ 100%)
Mon. $1,520 v. $1,748 v. $1,978 ( 77%/ 88%):-k
Tue. ??? v. $ v. $

Percentage Drop
Thur. N/A v. N/A v. -46.7
Fri. -33 v. -19 v. +50
Sat. +21.4 v. +28.1 v. +32.2
Sun. -15.9 v. -22 v. -10.2
Mon. -58 v. -56.3 v. -50.4
Tue. ??? v. -29.6 v. -24.8

Absolute Min-$336.93m Matrix Reloaded Scenerio (Less than 5%,0.1-5% range)
Realistic Min-$388.8m (10%, 5-15% range)
mdana Tracking (what I really think ROTS will finish)- $425m
Conservative Tracking-$432.2m AOTC Scenerio (25%, 15-40% range )
Likely-$450m (20%,40-60% range)
Possible-507m (20%, 60-80% range
Realistic Max-$540m (15%, 80-95% range)
Absolute Max-$633m(1-5%, 95-99.9% range)

The range is like a target range, with 50% being the bullseye.

The Maximums are probably too high, but I can't take them down until I see more how the weekdays pan out. I really need to see Friday's number too. I would put the odd of ROTS being able to break $600m at close to 1000-1.

Still digesting the numbers trying to get a handle on how it is really doing. Not there yet. Will have more after Tuesday's numbers released. I will look at the second weekend of these big openers.

From the SM2 thread added Matrix Reloaded and Attack of the Clones for comparison purposes (to get a better sample)-

Another interesting thing I noticed was that the Five Day totals for the Sensational Six were very similiar to the total aggragate of the box office (Top 12) the weekend those movies opened. Here they are:

1999-TPM-$105.7m/$102.25m-103%
2005-ROTS-$158.45m/$157.61m-101% (4 day total no other major opener)
2004-SM2-$152.56m/$158.5m-96.3%
2003-ROTK-$124.1m/$133.4m-93%
2004-The Passion-$125.2m/$139.7m-89.6% (also had to deal with 3 new openers)
2003-MREL-$134.28m-$154.62m-86.8% (4 day total no other major opener)
2004-Shrek 2-$128.98m/$163.4m-78.9%
2002-TTT-$102.0m/$132.7m-76.9% (also had to deal with 3 new openers)
2002-AOTC-$110.17m/162.6m-67.8% (4 day total 1 modest wide opener AAB)

Ratio of Weekend Aggregate compared to final Total B.O.
1999-TPM-$102.25m/$431.1m-4.08
2004-Shrek2-$128.98m/$441.23m-3.42
2002-TTT-$102.0m/$339.79m-3.3
2003-ROTK-$124.1m/$377m-3.04
2004-The Passion-$125.2m/$370.3m-2.96
2002-AOTC-$110.17m/302.2m-2.74
2004-SM2-$152.56m/$373.6m-2.46
2003-MREL-$134.28m-$281.58m-2.1

Ratio of Weekend B.O. compared to final Total B.O.
1999-TPM-$64.82m/$431.1m-6.65
2002-TTT-$62.01m/$339.79m-5.48
2003-ROTK-$72.63m/$377m-5.19
2004-The Passion-$83.85m/$370.3m-4.42
2004-SM2-$88.16m/$373.6m-4.24
2004-Shrek2-$108m/$441.23m-4.09
2002-AOTC-$80.03m/302.2m-3.78
2003-MREL-$91.77m-$281.58m-3.07

Ratings
1999-TPM-PG
2002-AOTC-PG
2002-TTT-PG-13
2003-MREL-R
2003-ROTK-PG-13
2004-The Passion-R
2004-Shrek2-PG
2004-SM2-PG-13

ROTS is currently the highest grossing movie released since Feb. 11th, 2005-$172.8m

Soon to be Vanquished-
Hitch is the highest grossing movie released since Feb. 11th, 2005-Est. date ROTS passes-May 25th, 2005, Actual date-???
Meet the Fockers is the highest grossing movie released since Dec. 22nd, 2004-Est. date ROTS passes-May 29th, 2005, Actual date-???

mdana's Power number for Tuesday-$10.3m.The Tuesday drops the last three years for movies with PG and PG-13 ratings have been between 25-35%, since this is the first PG-13 SW movie, I think it will drop slightly lower than AOTC, could be higher though. This movie will not have 12 straight days over $10m. Tuesday is even money over/under $10m.

Oh, so far. :wink:

More then AOTC. :wink:

Nice to see this thread mdana. Mods, can we make this one a sticky? It's always a delight to watch thoughtful and insightful analysis from mdana. It's a class apart from other "What went wrong with ROTS?" or "Will it make $300M now?" threads. Ideally, this should be in the main page of WoKJ.

Keep up the good work mdana.

welcome back amit!

mdana, if you would like these on the front page, we'd love to have them. pm bABA or Eagle and they will gladly arrange for oyu to mail them in so they can be uploaded. We love it when forum members contribute. In fact, we pray for it daily and rarely are our wishes answered. When they are, its a true gem.

Thanks Dolce! How has everyone been the past few months? I see that BOM is a ghosttown now, and WoKJ has grown quite big, thanls to all the people.

ROTS v. AOTC v. TPM (all % to the right using TPM as the baseline)

Theater Counts 3661 v. 3161 v. 2970 ( 123%/ 106%)
Print Counts 9400 v. 6100 v. 5500 ( 171%/ 111%)

Wed. N/A v. N/A v. 28.54 (NA%/ NA%)
Thur. $50.01m v. $30.14m v. $12.31m ( 406%/ 245%)

Cumulative Total $50.01m v. $30.14m v. $40.84m ( 122%/ 73.8%)

Fri. $33.53m v. $24.40m v. $18.47m ( 182%/ 132%)
Sat. $40.69m v. $31.25m v. $24.41m ( 167%/ 128%)
Sun. $34.21m v. $24.37m v. $21.93m ( 156%/ 111%)

Week-end Total $108.44m v. $80.03m v. $64.82m ( 167%/ 123%)
Cumulative Total $158.45m v. $110.17m v. $105.66m ( 150%/ 104%)

Mon. $14.35m v. $10.66m v. $10.88m ( 132%/ 98%)
Tue. $9.91m v. $7.5m v. $8.18m ( 121%/ 92%)

PTA (Per Theater Avg)
Wed. N/A v. $N/A v. $9,610 ( 172%/ 133%)
Thur. $13,661 v. $9,535 v. $4,144 ( 330%/ 231%)

Fri. $9,159 v. $7,721 v. $6,218 ( 147%/ 124%)
Sat. $11,115 v. $9,887 v. $8,220 ( 135%/ 120%)
Sun. $9,345 v. $7,709 v. $7,384 ( 127%/ 104%)
First Week-end $29,619 v. $25,317 v. $21,825 ( 136%/ 116%)

Mon. $3,920 v. $3,372 v. $3,664 ( 107%/ 92%)
Tue. $2,706 v. $2,374 v. $2,755 ( 98%/ 86%)

PPA (Per Print Avg)
Wed. N/A v. N/A v. $5,189 ( N/A%/ N/A%)
Thur. $5,309 v. $4,941 v. $2,238 ( 237%/ 221%)
Fri. $3,552 v. $4,000 v. $3,358 ( 106%/ 119%)
Sat. $4,310 v. $5,123 v. $4,438 ( 97%/ 115%)
Sun. $3,624 v. $3,995 v. $3,987 ( 91%/ 100%)
Mon. $1,520 v. $1,748 v. $1,978 ( 77%/ 88%):-k
Tue. $1,049 v. $1,230 v. $1,487 ( 71%/ 83%)

Percentage Drop
Thur. N/A v. N/A v. -46.7
Fri. -33 v. -19 v. +50
Sat. +21.4 v. +28.1 v. +32.2
Sun. -15.9 v. -22 v. -10.2
Mon. -58 v. -56.3 v. -50.4
Tue. -31 v. -29.6 v. -24.8

Absolute Min-$350.2m Matrix Reloaded Scenerio (Less than 5%,0.1-5% range)
Realistic Min-$388.8m (10%, 5-15% range)
mdana Tracking (what I really think ROTS will finish)- $425m
Conservative Tracking-$432.2m AOTC Scenerio (25%, 15-40% range )
Likely-$450m (20%,40-60% range)
Possible-507m (20%, 60-80% range
Realistic Max-$540m (15%, 80-95% range)
Absolute Max-$633m(1-5%, 95-99.9% range)

The range is like a target range, with 50% being the bullseye.

The Maximums are probably too high, but I can't take them down until I see more how the weekdays pan out. I really need to see Friday's number too. I would put the odd of ROTS being able to break $600m at close to 1000-1.

Highest 6 Day B.O. Totals

1 Revenge of the Sith-$182,710,278/3,661/$49,907/$182,710,278/5/19/05

2 Spider-Man 2-$180,072,888/48.2%/4,152/$43,370/$373,585,825/6/30/04

3 The Matrix Reloaded-$146,919,513/52.2%/3,603/$40,777/$281,576,461/5/15/03

5 Shrek 2-$140,495,380/31.8%/4,163/$33,749/$441,226,247/5/19/04

6 The Return of the King-$137,663,742/36.5%/3,703/$37,176/$377,027,325/12/17/03

7 The Passion of the Christ $135,317,847/36.5%/3,043/$44,469/$370,782,930/2/25/04

8 Attack of the Clones $128,332,368/41.3%/3,161/$40,599/$310,676,740/5/16/02

10 The Phantom Menace $116,542,509/27.0%/2,970/$39,240/$431,088,297/5/19/99

12 The Two Towers $115,556,154/33.8%/3,622/$31,904/$341,786,758/12/18/02


Ratings
1999-TPM-PG
2002-AOTC-PG
2002-TTT-PG-13
2003-MREL-R
2003-ROTK-PG-13
2004-The Passion-R
2004-Shrek2-PG
2004-SM2-PG-13

Sorry, I was going to comment on the second weekends for these movies, but I will hold those thoughts until Friday. Today I wanted to comment on what these movies were able to accomplish in their first 6 days and what they eventually grossed. I don't understand the comments about this movie being frontloaded. On a basic level for the avg. Joe, yes this movie will most likely be more frontloaded than AOTC. However, three years of watching these b.o. totals have taught us, it is not as simple as the weekend/total gross ratio that we used to use back in the 20th Century. The box office has changed over the past five years. A new method needs to take in all the factors to get a sense of a movie's legs.

Discard MREL which is R-rated, and they all made over 50% of their totals after the first 6 days. SM2 was hindered by a July 4th opening. AOTC is the only other movie that made less than 60% of its total after the first 6 dats. I think ROTS will make approx. 57% more of its gross from this point until it leaves the theaters. Technically, yes that is worse than AOTC. However, this movie opened on approx. 50% screens and 500 more theaters. It has had marginally worse drops day to day than AOTC did, made more on Sunday than it did on Friday which AOTC was not able to do. Compare how AOTC did compared to TPM? It opened slightly larger but had much bigger drops compared to TPM. There is no way a thinking person looking at all the evidence so far can rationally come to any logical conclusion other than ROTS is doing better legs wise than AOTC. It opened much bigger than the preceding sequel but has had slightly larger drops, the previous sequel opened slightly bigger than its preceding sequel but has significantly larger drops.

SM2 opened and did about as well as a movie can do over the 4th of July weekend. I think if ROTS and SM2 switched places you would have a hard time telling their 6 day grosses apart. I think they both did about as well as could be expected on the release pattern they had. However, at this point SM2 had spent its Holiday and was looking at weekdays just as good as the week it opened. ROTS has Memorial Day weekend coming up and weekdays that it will be available to a larger audience for the next three weeks. If you are trying to argue that ROTS will not make more percentage wise than SM2, I would like to see better reasoning than DP07 did in his article (quite good but I don't think it made his point). Yes, the market has changed but not that drastically. Another thing SM2 dropped 48.7% its second weekend coming off a holiday and going into a weekend without a holiday. ROTS will not be doing that, in fact it will be doing the reverse which should limit some of the effects of a second weekend drop.

I don't even like the prequels, I have not seen this movie. I feel like I am in no way biased to predict this movie will break $400m, other than the evidence so far compels me to forecast it. I'd love to state this movie will not break $350m, but I don't see any evidence other than a complete collapse over the Memorial Day weekend and nothing in the weekday totals leads me to believe that will happen.


ROTS is currently the highest grossing movie released since Feb. 11th, 2005-$182.7m

Soon to be Vanquished-
Hitch is the highest grossing movie released since Feb. 11th, 2005-Est. date ROTS passes-May 25th, 2005, Actual date-???
Meet the Fockers is the highest grossing movie released since Dec. 22nd, 2004-Est. date ROTS passes-May 29th, 2005, Actual date-???

mdana's Power number for Wednesday-$8.4m. Conservative estimate of a 15% drop, so look for it to drop only 10% :wink:

Hey Amit good to see you here.

Thanks mdana. BTW, I think a 15% drop is reasonable and what its probably going to do, but I would be more happy if it gets between what AOTC (12.9%) and Phantom Menace (5.2%). I agree with your front-loaded analysis. There is no way this movie is going to die at $340M. I guess the Memorial Day weekend will silence the non-believers.

BTW, how's the betting going on? I think I remember in one of your posts on BOM/WoKJ about your trips to various places regarding that.

You know, I might have an idea to help with that in terms of BO.