These are way too high of drops for ROTS. It has a 3.2 weekend multiplier and the previous Star Wars movies have had great drops for their second weekends with Phantom getting a 26% drop and AOTC getting a 40% drop. ROTS is getting much better WOM than AOTC so I see a drop slightly below 40%.

1. ROTS- 68 mil 3day/ 85 mil 4 day
2. Madagascar- 60 mil 3day/ 75 mil 4 day
3. Longest Yard- 45 mil 3 day- 55 mil 4 day

Do you think a higher opening weekend will lead to a more steep drop tho? It does have farther to fall from than the other 2. I'm thinking mid 40s drop only because Monday is Memorial Day. All the good WOM in the world can't help a rush out factor. I think its more a seeing it again and again factor than WOM factor. I have never seen a Star Wars in my life and have no interest in seeing this one.........I know alot of people like me, so WOM won't help these people. Maybe some of those people who are borderline will go see it. But I haven't heard amazing WOM about this.........everyone I know pretty much says it was better than the last 2, but remembering the reactions from the last 2 that isn't saying a whole lot. But who knows.......we should know more by the weekday numbers what kinda legs this will have. Still a lil early to be sure.

With three huge movies out next weekend, it looks like it might have a shot of breaking the aggregate weekend record for the top 10 of $185.6 mil which was last year over Memorial Weekend. Another record that might fall is Shrek 2's record for highest 2nd weekend of $72.2 mil which ROTS has a chance of beating. Should be pretty exciting. \:D/

I'm going to raise Star Wars. The WOM really does seem to be great here.

1. Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith 65/82 million (Same drop as Attack of the Clones, the frontloading getting levelled out by the great WOM)
2. Madagascar 1. 63/86 million
3. The Longest Yard 46/56 million

W00t, can't wait til next weekend.....theres goin to be three $40M+ openers.

Wehay.

There's no way that football movie opens over 40+. Adam Sandler's days of 40+ are over. Madascagar will obviously do it though.

$11,500 is the only PTA that LONGEST YARD needs to pass $40,000,000.

I think it can be done.

$11,500 is the only PTA that LONGEST YARD needs to pass $40,000,000.

I think it can be done.

damn, do you think this is going to increase on Monday?

I'm actually thinking this will be like Shrek 2, with sharp increases as WOM extinguishes some reluctance. 15 million opening day, 26 million Saturday, 22 million Sunday, 20 million Monday (got to decrease it a bit I guess). So I'll edit that to 63/83

Where I am the WOM is really bad. Most people where I live thought the ending was retarded, mainly because of the "Nooo!"

Of course, it could totally be a different situation somewhere else.

Sounds like denial on it's box office performance, MG. [-X

quit hating MG

1. Revenge Of The Sith - $67M/$81M
2. Madagascar - $63M/$77M
3. The Longest Yard - $39M/$48M

no one cares about the rest

Most people? A group of 3? C'mon, this is getting ridiculous. WOM really bad.....that's Reaching

Yeah?? What part of Missouri are you in?? I'm from St.Louis and the WOM is Fantastic with sold out show after sold out show at RONNIES 20 CINE.. I think your jerking our chain on this kid and you know it..

I'm just messin', Flava'd. MG knows that. :wink:

And, hey, I don't care when people say stuff about my horrible predictions. :razz:

Madagascar - 70 / 88
Revenge of the Sith - 63 / 79
Longest Yard - 35 / 43

I can't believe people think Madagascar is a "Not another CGI movie". It looks like a classic, Shrek-style blockbuster! :wink:

BJs Predictions:

Star Wars Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - 67m
Madagascar - 48m
The Longest Yard - 40m

3-day:
Episode III: 65.1
Madagascar: 48.0
The Longest Yard: 35.7

I was laughing at that part. But seriously, WOM is strong, however, it won't make a difference for at least a couple weeks. Large drops the next two weeks regardless.

all the people who've seen ROTS this weekend will be watching Madasgascar next weekend. FO SHO!

#1 Mad $70/$88
#2 ROTS $60/$72 (raised from $50/$62)
#3 LY $40/$50

3 $40+ mill weekend for the first time w00t! \:D/ let's make it happen folks.

I don't know why it would have a drop over 55% this weekend (or even 50%). For one, it's Memorial Day weekend. Drops are never really that harsh. Also, starting this Friday, a lot of schools in America are getting out. Summer is actually starting, people.

All estimates 3 day

ROTS will drop around 50%, it is playing on 54% more screens than AOTC did. You really can't compare the two. With 9400 screens the chance of catching a showing even on opening weekend is easy. The per screen average of ROTS for the 4 day was less than AOTC's per screen average for its opening 4 day. This trend will continue. I would think somewhere around $53-56 million for ROTS.

Madagascar, hard to judge. I saw a sneak with the kids, they loved it. Visually it is stunning and really funny, there isn't a story on the level of Nemo or Incredibles, but it should do well. $50 mil is possible.

The longest Yard, I don't know. I think too many people expect way too much from this. $40 mil maybe.