Now the summer has been off to a slow start, but I think that this year's Memorial Day's Weekend will have a huge bang in store for us.

It'll be the opening weekend for Dreamworks' latest animated feature, Madagascar and the newest Adam Sandler starrer The Longest Yard. Moreover, it'll be the second weekend of what aims to become the year's highest-grossing movie, Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith.

In the history of box-office we've experiences some occasions when five movies made $20+ million over a weekend. We've also experienced occasions on which three movies made more than $25 million on a weekend and occasions on which two movies made more than $65 million on a weekend (last year's The Day after Tomorrow opening wekend and Shrek 2's second weekend).

We have never had a weekend on which three movies made $30+ million. Considering the pedigree of these three movies, I would say, that it is close to a lock that this will happen.

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith is guaranteed a $40+ million second weekend. AOTC made it, The Phantom Menace made it, so why shouldn't ROTS make it? It'll amsot certainly make $90+ million over 3-days, so even with a 45% drop, it'll make well above $40 million in its 2nd weekend.

Madagascar is the summer's BIG CGI animated flick. Robots has been some of a disappointment, but it still opened to $35 million. This one has a much better trailer, better marketing, it will open in 4,000+ theatres since it's Dreamworks and it has the "From the makers of Shrek and Shrek 2" going for it. It will most likely open to $60+ million, so $40+ million is absolutely guaranteed.

The Longest Yard is the least certain of the three, but let's face it. It's a full-blown Adam Sandler comedy flick. Let's look at his recent openings:

Spanglish - $8,817,853
50 Fist Dates - $39,852,237
Anger Management - $42,220,847
Mr. Deeds - $37,162,787
Little Nicky - $16,063,904
Big Daddy - $41,536,370
The Waterboy - $39,414,071


His only low openings were when he went against his usual "type" like Spanglish. Little Nicky just didn't look good at all and wasn't marketed any well. These two aside, out of his five last wide openers made $37-42 million in their opening weekend. I think you see a pattern. One of the most comparable flicks is probably The Waterboy since it deals with football as well. Sports movies are always successful, but a sports movie with Adam Sandler is almost a guarantee for box-office gold. Besides that, it's a holiday weekend, so that will boost the gross even more.

The Longest Yard will probably open in at least 3,400 theatres, maybe even more and I don't see why it shouldn't get in the area of Sandler's usual openings. The competition will be huge from SW: ROTS and Madagascar, but this one has a niché of its own. I think due to the huge competition, it probably won't make $40 million, but will get around $35-38 million over the weekend.


So, all in all, there is a decent chance that three movies will make $40+ million over that weekend and it is close to a lock that three will make $30+ million, something that hasn't ever happened before either.


At the moment, I'd predict:

1. Madagascar - $68 million
2. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - $50 million
3. The Longest Yard - $37 million




What do you think? Will we have three $40+ million grossers that weekend or just three $30+ million grossers?

Revenge of the Sith's WOM will keep it on top...

Revenge of the Sith second weekend: $93 million ($126 million)
Madagascar: $53 million ($68 million)
The Longest Yard: $40 million ($54 million)

Right now:

Madagascar -- $68 million / $80 million (4-Day weekend)
Star Wars: Episode III -- $47 million / $62 million
The Longest Yard -- $33 million / $41 million

So, you expect Episode III to make...$140+ million over its opening 3 days? #-o

I predict $162 million... I mean this is selling 5 times as many tickets as Passion did last year... 5 times and it's opening on 3,700 theaters. I believe it will make around $45 thousand per theater as if it opened in like 5 or 6 theaters.

Well right now I'd go with...

1. Madagascar 70/88 million
2. The Longest Yard 50/63 million
3. Star Wars: Episode III 44/55 million

Dude, I'm gonna be as honest as I possibly can with you: Yes, it is an Adam Sandler movie and Yes, he has had very good luck with his movies in the past box office wise, However, Longest Yard is going to be singlehandedly destroyed at the box office in SITH's 2nd week and pretty much any movie in it's path til BATMAN BEGINS comes out.. You heard it here 1st..

Madagascar - $68 million
Episode III - $52.8 million
The Longest Yard - $40.8 million

:bw: with those predictions.

It's threads like these that make me excited for summer movies....Big weekends.

Not just 1 low $20M opener, 1 low teens holdover, and the rest less than $8m holdovers.

Roll on this weekend.

When we might get TWO $20M openers, a TEEN openers and some nice holdovers.

for the first time we will have 3 $40+ mill grosser movies.
(fri-sun)
#1 Madagascar - $60-$80
#2 ROTS - $40-$60
#2 Longest Yard - $40-$60

No way madagascar opens even over 50m, the stock is dropping and public interest is dwindling.

NEVER .... EVER .... DISMISS A KIDDIE CGI FLICK IN THE SUMMER!! THAT TOO IN MARCH!! NEVER!!!!

those 4-days are a but strange there :???: looks like you expect some 30%+ monday drops for the three films

Also madagascar is not opening over 50m :wink:

why do you think the hypeless film will make over 50m opening wknd :?:

Close star wars but still a little high on madagascar.

And there is no posible way ro star wars to make over 70m in its 2nd wknd so that is a crazy prediction you have there.

the longest yard will open over 50m.

the longest yard will easily clear 50m over the three day wknd

Star wars will most likely clear 60m but should be more in the 55m range

Madagascar will not open over 50m

:-s once again Lecter underminds the power of the dark side :razz:

your way to low for the longest yard and way to high for madagascar.

come on people finding nemo made 70m with far more going for it.

All three should definetely make over $30 million, I wouldn't be surprised if they all made over $40 million. Also, am I the only one that thinks that BATMAN BEGINS is going to do not so good at the box office?

batman has a chance of failing at the box office ... yes ...

i still think 150m is minimum .. absolute minimum

The Longest Yard is seriously underestimated. If Bruce Almighty was able to make 68 million in one week against Matrix Reloaded 2nd week, why cant the Longest Yard do the same? Adam Sandler is as popular as Jim Carrey and its a football movie

The Longest Yard will have to deal with Star Wars that is PG-13 rated while The Matrix Reloaded was R. Moreover, Burce Almighty didn't have the benemoth of Madagascar to deal with.

Madagascar is a lock to open to $50+ million. The big CGI animated movie of the summer.

CGI movies almost a dime a dozen and besides its a children's movie that wont really affect Adam Sandler movies like how Shrek 2 didnt affect DAT.

If thats all it does, its still decent, that would mean it already covered its budget domestically, and then we would probably be getting easily over 200m internationally, but like you said thats minimum, the movie is opening all by itself ( except for some Hillary Duff movie ) then the week after it really has no direct competition except for Land of the Dead, which should have a hard time getting over 20m. It's real deciding factor if it can get over 200m is basically the wom, if it's atleast good it should have no problem getting over 200m, really the only way it can only do 150m is if it's a crappy movie in the same veign as Hulk or if it has a very underwhelming opening.

BJ, you crack me up. I don't see your logic. How do you suppose The Longest Yard can make over $50m and Madagascar can't? I do think The Longest Yard has a chance at $50m, but I'm going a little lower right now. As for Madagascar, I have a tough time believing that it'll open to less than Shark Tale. It's memorial day weekend, BJ. Memorial Day.