The Budget is $130M. Add another $50M for marketing/prints. Unless it does stellar numbers overseas, which it could, it will be a flop.

As you mentioned, the better word probably is a huge disppointment.

Thats a terrible Friday for almost every film.

KOH should have done atleast $11 or 12m. Now it will struggle to make $20m for the weekend.

House of Wax shoudl have atleast made $20-$25m for the weekend - now it wont make $15m - much less than films like Boogeyman, White Noise and almost every other horror film this year.

Hitchhikers fell more than XXX2!!!!

Bad start to what will be a weak summer. Looks like everyon is waiting for ROTS.

I always knew this strategy of opening up a series of medium sized films in the first weeks of May (and last of April) would backfire. Nothing beats one mega-opener to kick start the summer season. This is reminding me of 1997 - small openers (Fifth Element, Fathers Day) before a mega opener (Lost World/ROTS). A megaflop in the form of Speed 2 (read XX2) and then the next big event was Batman and Robin (read Batman Begins). Could this be a bad sign for BB. Then a mega July 4th pic - MIB (read War of the Worlds).....

Kingdom of Heaven will have a hard time making it to $70M overall. House of Wax won't even make $40M.

I suppose that is relatively solid for Crash, looks like it could be close to $9M this weekend.

Did anyone notice Fever Pitch? Down just 17%, which could lead to an overall weekend decline of only about 15% or so.

I think its gonna pull a higher than 3 multiplier. Don't ask me. Gut feeling.

My projections:

Kingdom of Heaven $20.4m
House of Wax $14.1m
The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy $9.3m
Crash $8.5m
The Interpreter $7.4m
XXX2: State of the Union $5.5m
The Amityville Horror $3.5m
Sahara $3.3m
A Lot Like Love $3.3m
Pitch Fever $2.5m

Kicking and Screaming, Episode III, The Longest Yard, and Madagascar will all pass $100 million for May. We had four $100 million films in May 2004, too. Though, Shrek 2 was a mammoth, everything else is pretty much covered.

God, even TPM had more competition than this.

Wow, hard to believe the summer hasn't kicked in by this weekend. Disappointing numbers for Kingdom, but at least it won the weekend and that's at least a small consolation for anyone who wants more movies to be made that aren't just another explosion-fest.

It will do big numbers overseas, and on DVD, I'm sure.

Anyways, if you compare it to Troy and Alexander, it didn't do terrible business, just mediocre.

But really, the domestic audience is clearly not interested in epics. I think LOTR gave them a fill of it for the rest of the decade.

Edit: Ok, it's actually pretty bad.

Who knew Dr Lecter would rub it in if he got it right ? Pretty dissapointing for House of Wax but a bit of a superbomb there with Kingdom of Heaven. I thought $27m was reasonable. Not so. Just a weak sesh. Pretty good for Crash; it should do around $9-10m depending on that multiplier which im hoping is good.

Fever Pitch has had pretty amazing legs; im surprised after such a weak first weekend performance. It could pass $50m. Its basically been the only womens movie out right now; last year there was Mean Girls and 13 Going on 30, both of which had worse legs than Fever Pitch, But bigger openings too.

Also, guys, can we give it a rest with the Star Wars for at least one thread?

This is the lowest summer kickoff in eight years....

It is real bad. The USA is really starting to show that we just don't have a large audience for historical epics anymore. I hope it does very well internationally ... I want to see another Ridley Scott epic sometime soon

Thank god i Have lost world to look forward too.

I agree 100%. Some people can't come to terms with it.

KOH will do about 22.5 for the weekend i think

Argh. Don't make me bring up Meet the Fockers! :wink:

I just never understood anyone thinking that KOH would be a BO draw.

Loyal, are you beginning to see its influence on other films?

I was looking at KOH's sequences, and thinking of Gladiator and LOTR, and it seems clear htat Scott, consciously or unconsciously, has been influenced at least in part by Jackson.

I mean, KOH had a number of moments that were eerily reminiscent of TTT's big battle, as well as ROTK's.

Don't think it was ever a draw. Remember, I was blasting this movie just a few days ago. i just felt that people might just go watch it cause theres nothing else around ... I know half the people i saw it with yesterday only came cause it was summer and they hadn't seen anything in a while ... hell, we almost went and saw House of Wax cause they just WANTED to see SOMETHING!! i ofcourse, threw a fit!

I am not surprised that the fanboyism associated with Star Wars has eclipsed all sense of anticipation towards Madagascar. Which is going to be a $200m+ smash.

Guess it's Monster-in-Law for you next weekend, Zingy. :razz:

Yep. Unless, of course, House of Wax pulls a 3.1x multiplier. :wink:

I could take advantage of this bet and take my mom to see it tomorrow as an "extra" Mother's Day present. :wink:

I'm really sad about Hitchhiker's. The hurt is like Sky Captain but a little more painful. I think it's a really sharp little funny film. I'm sad that it can't get more of an audience.

I mean if the budget was what... $80ish million like everyone says, it will still make a lot of money for Disney. I will make 40 here, 40 overseas then a bunch on DVD, but still...

I think everybody who is not George Lucas is panicing about all their summer prospects right now. It's quite possible that the only safe projects that exist in 2005 are Star Wars and Harry Potter. That's got to be a little frightening.

I actually think we should be looking at Monster In Law as a $100m success. Jane Fonda whips up a lot of curiousity over this film, Jennifer Lopez has proven her worth as a romantic comedy lead and Michael Vartan has the Alias teenage girls to follow him. Id say at least $80m, but likely upwards.

HOLY CRAP! That has to be the most massive second weekend drop for HItchhiker's ever! What' it's going to go from 21 million to maybe nine million. That's huge drop. Terrible. The movie wasn't that bad. Deserves more loving even if it wasn't that great.

KOH is only going to get about 21 million (rather than the 26 I predicted). For #1 at 21 million on this weekend in may, I'd expect other movies to at least pick up the slack.

My expectations for Crash getting 7 million seem pretty on the mark, and Interpreter gets another decent hold. That's about it. While I thought House of Wax would get 4.25 to 4.5 million, I thought it would be third this weekend, not second. Why is this weekend so low grossing?


edit*** Any info on Holy Girl?

Sorry, I should have said I never saw it as a draw. Not other people.