I think it's pretty much a fact that the majority of online ticket buyers are families or adults.

Teens/Young Adults (13-25) probably don't buy their tickets online.

Amityville Horror was already tracking on wednesday before it opened. What you are almost admitting is that House of Wax only appeals to teen crowd

That's its target audience...

But, it's not just the teen crowd. Adults (or fans of the original) will probably check it out. I just don't expect that many adults for this weekend when two other adult-aimed films are being released.

I will wait until tonight. Moviefone is one of many tools that gives us some kind of idea about opening weekend. I tend to agree with Roid, although I'm not concerned until sometime later since most only start planning the weekend today. People, including myself to a certain degree, were using the similar argument of "its targeted demographics don't buy tickets online" for XXX2 to justify why it wasn't appearing even late Thursday night, and it turned out moviefone did indicate there was a lack of interest. Almost all movies, if they want to have a good PTA in the opening weekend, appear by late Wednesday night. The only one that didn't appear and still did well this year was The Pacifier. The opposite is not necessarily true. For example, romantic comedies tend to show up earlier at moviefone, such as Fever Pitch, but it doesn't always translate to box office success.

TOMATOMETER

OVERALL:
RATING: ROTTEN READING: 53%
Reviews counted: 19
Fresh: 10 Rotten: 9
Average Rating: 5.7/10

CREAM OF THE CROP:
RATING: FRESH READING: 71%
Reviews counted: 7
Fresh: 5 Rotten: 2
Average Rating: 5.9/10

Hope the upward trend continues...

Just made my decision. I'm with Ragnarok on this one. The tracking isn't super hight, so I see it having a PTA similar to The Last Samurai and Master and Commander. $26 million opening.

I would say no more predictions.Here it starts today and I guess is similar in US. (Or is it Friday release????)

It opens on Friday.

Do you have a final total prediction? So I would add it to the chart.

24.2/68

90M.

I'm with Vovanik here, $24m opening, around $65m total.

Dang huge difference between the Cream of Crop vs the other reviews. At the cream of crop scale its at 71% but overall its at 44%

I've seen it.. not masterpiece but still a very good movie

But I don't think it's gonna hit at US..

But it will definitely BIG HIT over here (Egypt)

The average rating for TCOC is still below 6.0, although most of the big names (Ebert, EW, Hollywood Reporter, Variety, Peter Travers, James Berardinelli) like it. I think it will end up right around 60%.

All 3 openers are in the moviefone top 5 now, after none of them was there last night (Kingdom of Heaven got back around 2:00am PST). Combined with other signs, I feel none of them is going to bomb or break out. Looks like another uneventful weekend instead of start of the summer.

I'll say reviews and wom only affect legs, not opening weekend. Scott/Bloom/Epic will get people in near 26 million. But it will have some difficulty reaching 70 afterwards. Its got a long running time too right? That affects how many screens it could show on. Hitchhiker's will still pull in 15 million, and House of Wax will get 12. Interpreter will suffer a bit but it looks to have strong wom, so maybe 8.5. Crash will do around the same. With all these movies and the running time, is it even possible to near 30 million even if there were good ratings?

On this weekend in 2004, Van Helsing opened to 51m. In 2003 on this weekend, X2 opened to 80-something million. So I just feel it's unlikely that this weekend's number one movie will have such a tiny gross as 25m.

Only problem is that Kingdom of Heaven is rated R and its almost 2 and half hrs long which may affect its opening

Which is why I wasn't guessing a huge gross for it. The rating and length is already factored in. I agree it won't have a gross the size of X2 and likely not the size of Van Helsing. But 25m seems small for the first weekend in the summer, doesn't it? Regardless of ratings and lengths.

Gladiator did 34m back in 2000, it was the only movie that weekend to be in double digits.

Thanks, didn't know that, but it helps my point.

I saw it yesterday at the cinema. I give it a 8.5/10 rating! I won't post my review until other peeps from the world round have an opportunity to view it. It think that's fair so as to avoid spoilers and whatnot.

You really think there isn't going to be another movie in the double digits this weekend? That's interesting because I think both Hitchhikers and HOW might break it. Hitchhikers would have to drop 60% or something not to be in the double digits.

I'll stand by my prediction actually, 26 million sounds right. 34 million for something that had much better reviews, and a more appealing scenario (Roman Empire vs. Crusades). Orlando is great, but doesn't have the name pull with adults that Crowe does either.

No I didn't say I didn't think there wouldn't be anohter movie opening in double digits, but I was glad to hear that Gladiator made so much in opening weekend with a little known and less bankable star. Bloom is more famous and bankable than Crowe was when Gladiator opened.I really don't think that the audience for KOH is the audience for House of Wax. Bloom's appeal (unfortunately) is not just to teenage girls. Many adult women drool over him. The wife of a friend was telling me last night that she's going to opening night with her sister and she's 32.

I know I could be wrong, I'm not pulling a bkb here. I just think that this is the start of the summer and some movie, one of them, is going to make a decent amount.

Hitchhiker needs to drop only 52.62% this weekend to not be in double digits, so I'd actually be suprised if it were. I expect something along the lines of 9m.

For KOH, I think that Gladiator did have advantages overall over KOH (mostly being that it's less marketable), but an opening of that size in 2000 is like an opening of 55m today. So, KOH will almost certainly have a less impressive opening, but it should do more then 30m IMO.