So how will the 2005 movies do Internationally & Worldwide?

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What are your thoughts on these or any other movie?

What are the big winners going to be?

Star Wars
Mr & Mrs Smith
Batman Begins
Fantasic Four
Madagascar
Wedding Crasher
Cinderella Man
The Island

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Top 30 Worldwide Movies Ever

Rank # - Film - Worldwide Total = USA + International - Year Released

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1 Titanic - 1,845.0 = 600.8 + 1,244.2 - 1997
2 The Return of the King - 1,118.9 = 377.0 + 741.9 - 2003
3 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone - 976.5 = 317.6 + 658.9 - 2001
4 The Two Towers - 926.3 = 341.8 + 584.5 - 2002
5 The Phantom Menace - 924.5 = 431.1 + 493.4 - 1999
6 Shrek 2 - 918.5 = 441.2 + 477.3 - 2004
7 Jurassic Park - 914.7 = 357.1 + 557.6 - 1993
8 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets - 876.7 = 262.0 + 614.7 - 2002
9 The Fellowship of the Ring - 871.4 = 314.8 + 556.6 - 2001
10 Finding Nemo - 864.6 = 339.7 + 524.9 - 2003
11 Spider-Man - 821.7 = 403.7 + 418.0 - 2002
12 Independence Day - 817.0 = 306.2 + 510.8 - 1996
13 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial - 792.9 = 435.1 + 357.8 - 1982
14 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - 789.8 = 249.5 + 540.3 - 2004
15 Spider-Man 2 - 784.0 = 373.6 + 410.4 - 2004
16 The Lion King - 783.8 = 328.5 + 455.3 - 1994
17 Star Wars - 775.4 = 461.0 + 314.4 -1977
18 The Matrix Reloaded - 738.6 = 281.6 + 457.0 - 2003
19 Forrest Gump - 677.4 = 329.7 + 347.7 - 1994
20 The Sixth Sense - 672.8 = 293.5 + 379.3 - 1999
21 Pirates of the Caribbean - 653.9 = 305.4 + 348.5 - 2003
22 Attack of the Clones - 649.5 = $310.7 + 338.8 - 2002
23 The Incredibles - 631.3 = 261.4 + 369.8 - 2004
24 The Lost World: Jurassic Park - 618.6 = 229.1 + 389.6 - 1997
25 The Passion of the Christ - 611.9 = 370.8 - 241.1 - 2004
26 Men in Black - 589.4 = 250.7 + 338.7 - 1997
27 Armageddon - 553.7 = 201.6 + 352.1 - 1998
28 Mission: Impossible II - 545.9 = 215.4 + 330.5 - 2000
29 The Day After Tomorrow - 542.8 = 186.7 + 356.0 - 2004
30 The Empire Strikes Back Fox - 538.4 = 290.5 + 247.9 - 1980

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As I left it off the list - anyone think that Star Wars could beat Titantic in WW $.

1 Titanic - 1,845.0 = 600.8 + 1,244.2 - 1997

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No 2005 movies will enter the top 10. Right now I'd put HP4 at number one for the year with $800m and RotS next with $750m. If WotW really breaks out it could challenge RotS for the number two spot.

I know that they always said that Star Wars doesn't do much overseas - but the Phantom Manace did ok - so will Darth Vader make any difference at all.

5 The Phantom Menace - 924.5 = 431.1 + 493.4 - 1999
17 Star Wars - 775.4 = 461.0 + 314.4 - 1977
30 The Empire Strikes Back Fox - 538.4 = 290.5 + 247.9 - 1980

You can't compare the OT movies to today because the international market was so much smaller then. TPM did 53% of its gross internationally and AotC did 52%. There's no reason to think RotS will be much different, so for it to enter the top ten worldwide it would need to make close to $400m domestically. I don't think that's likely.

I think the international number will be higher between 55 and 58 %.

I think it will move down Shrek 2 and end up at #5

What are your thoughts on these or any other movie?

What are the big winners going to be - WORLDWIDE?

Which aren't going to play overseas?

Star Wars
Mr & Mrs Smith
Batman Begins
Fantasic Four
Madagascar
Wedding Crasher
Cinderella Man
The Island

Etc.

Some rough guesses:
War of the Worlds 750 million
Star Wars Episode III 600 million
Madagascar 530 million
Batman Begins 420 million
Kingdom of Heaven 300 million
Mr & Mrs Smith 235 million
Fantastic Four 230 million

I'm actually surprised you think it will gross that low Ragnarok. I just can't see SW dropping that much in the WW market. So you think it will drop quite a bit from the last one then don't you?

50 million less than Attack of the Clones doesn't seem like a big drop to me.
My prediction is 283 million domestic and 317 million international(47% dom/53% int).
I believe that being less kid-friendly than the previous installments will hurt it.

yes

I guess anything thing is possible.

By the way, is your name Bill Gates and you are planning to see it a couple of 100 million times.

200,000,000 *7.5 = $ 1,500,000,000.

That only leaves everyone else to add $ 350,000,000 to set a new record.

Just showing the above with a 47 / 53 split.

I give ROTS 776: So close to the original. No top 10 here.
But the closer the movie comes the more i feel hyped and get a feeling that with good WOM this is gonna really huge.
Perhaps not a that great opening but really nice sexy long legs.

What's the point of this? Many of these movies will have very different domestic/international splits. WotW, for example, should get over 60% of its money in the international market.

It is just an approximation - NOTE THE JUST SHOWING - that people can adjust if they want. Maybe you can do those numbers in your head but I thought I would brake out the % for easier reference.

Any comments on where these films ended

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Top 30 Worldwide Movies Ever

Rank # - Film - Worldwide Total = USA + International - Year Released

****************************************************************

1 Titanic - 1,845.0 = 600.8 + 1,244.2 - 1997
2 The Return of the King - 1,118.9 = 377.0 + 741.9 - 2003
3 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone - 976.5 = 317.6 + 658.9 - 2001
4 The Two Towers - 926.3 = 341.8 + 584.5 - 2002
5 The Phantom Menace - 924.5 = 431.1 + 493.4 - 1999
6 Shrek 2 - 918.5 = 441.2 + 477.3 - 2004
7 Jurassic Park - 914.7 = 357.1 + 557.6 - 1993
8 Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets - 876.7 = 262.0 + 614.7 - 2002
9 The Fellowship of the Ring - 871.4 = 314.8 + 556.6 - 2001
10 Finding Nemo - 864.6 = 339.7 + 524.9 - 2003
11 Spider-Man - 821.7 = 403.7 + 418.0 - 2002
12 Independence Day - 817.0 = 306.2 + 510.8 - 1996
13 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial - 792.9 = 435.1 + 357.8 - 1982
14 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - 789.8 = 249.5 + 540.3 - 2004
15 Spider-Man 2 - 784.0 = 373.6 + 410.4 - 2004
16 The Lion King - 783.8 = 328.5 + 455.3 - 1994
17 Star Wars - 775.4 = 461.0 + 314.4 -1977
18 The Matrix Reloaded - 738.6 = 281.6 + 457.0 - 2003
19 Forrest Gump - 677.4 = 329.7 + 347.7 - 1994
20 The Sixth Sense - 672.8 = 293.5 + 379.3 - 1999
21 Pirates of the Caribbean - 653.9 = 305.4 + 348.5 - 2003
22 Attack of the Clones - 649.5 = $310.7 + 338.8 - 2002
23 The Incredibles - 631.3 = 261.4 + 369.8 - 2004
24 The Lost World: Jurassic Park - 618.6 = 229.1 + 389.6 - 1997
25 The Passion of the Christ - 611.9 = 370.8 - 241.1 - 2004
26 Men in Black - 589.4 = 250.7 + 338.7 - 1997
27 Armageddon - 553.7 = 201.6 + 352.1 - 1998
28 Mission: Impossible II - 545.9 = 215.4 + 330.5 - 2000
29 The Day After Tomorrow - 542.8 = 186.7 + 356.0 - 2004
30 The Empire Strikes Back Fox - 538.4 = 290.5 + 247.9 - 1980

Star Wars won't enter the top 10 WW. I can't really see anything that could this year, the only potential i see is WOTW, unless something like Narnia or Kong really breaks out internationally, which they could do i suppose, but highly unlikely.

Star Wars has a far bigger chance in the top 10 than War of the Worlds...

???

Sorry, i just don't see the downward trend internationally being broken (just as with Harry Potter). Domestically i expect it to do better than AOTC, but Star Wars always was heavily weighted to the US.

Well, this is an interesting thread, Goldie... I'm not sure about the world wide gross of Star Wars... I guess it will end up with about $750m, but inflation and ticket prices could push it to $1b or more... don't underestimate the power of increasing ticket prices and inflation... worldwide is hard to guess...

Heard 2 people speak on the radio after seeing a sneak preview.

They said Star Wars is going to be big.

Here are some of their quick comments I remember.

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- Yoda is great.
- Battles / Fights were great.
- As good as the earlier ones - which they loved.
- Has a good story.
- A Home Run.
- A Dark Evil Movie
- Repeat Viewings are a yes

Good fight so far as the over under on the final # 10 spot at 864 is 50 / 50.