I'd say probably, unless it bombs. I expect WOTW to open with about 60m for the 3 day, and get no more then 33m for the second weekend. I'd expect F4 to be at about 44m giving it an easy victory. That said, anything's possible.

I believe, once Spielberg unleashes the final trailer for WotW many predictions for the movie will be increased.

From the teasers/trailers we have right now, I can assure you all that War of the Worlds won't be making $300 million. The final trailer has to, literally, blow me away for it to get a $300 million prediction out of me. Don't get me wrong, though; War of the Worlds is my third most anticipated movie this summer. But, the trailer we have right now doesn't seem to indicate any possible way this can stir up $300 million, or even an opening above $80 million for the opening weekend. The Day After Tomorrow had a much more appealing trailer and the marketing campaign was absolutely fantastic. Let's not forget, it was also released on Memorial Day weekend. Not that Independence Day weekend is bad, but The Day After Tomorrow had the clear advantage and still grossed less than $200 million (even after a great opening 4-day weekend). Now, War of the Worlds does look great, but the marketing doesn't seem to be that strong thus far (The Day After Tomorrow started very early). I'd say around $240-250 million total for War of the Worlds.

Just to make clear what I am expecting for War of the Worlds:

It'll have a "7-day weekend" as it opens on a Wednesday, then it has July 4th as its Monday and July 5th (when most movies rise big time) as its Tuesday.

I see it making around $180-185 million in its first seven days and hit about $235 million by the end of its 2nd weekend (which I think will be around $39 million).

I am usually not overly optimistic about every single movie that comes along, but I certainly am on this one.

I see going like this:

Opening day - $34 million
Thursday - $22.1 million (-35%)
Friday - $29.2 million (+32%)
Saturday - $33.5 million (+15%)
Sunday - $26 million (-22%)
Monday - $17 million (-35%)
Thursday - $20.4 million (+20%)

So I see an opening weekend of around $85-90 million, followed by a second-weekend drop of about 55% at least.

That puts it near such movies as Spiderman 2 and Shrek 2 after the second weekend. I agree with Zingaling though. As of yet they have not shown the aliens or any special effects that would put this on par with TDAT. Spielberg and Cruise won't make it a huge hit alone as shown by Minority Report. I don't see it reaching 250m right now.

Certainly that is true.

But judging by the concept drawings of the alien machines and the fact that in the movie they'll be five times bigger than Jurassic Park's T-Rex and will be wrecking havoc all-around (that's all from an interview with Kathleen Kennedy and Steven Spielberg) and considering that the trailer showing them will be shown with SW: ROTS. I believe people will get hyped up for this one.

Unlike many on here, I believe that Batman Begins will "disappoint". By "disappoint" I mean a five-day weekend of around $107 million (3-day weekend around $62 million). When Wotw opens, Batman Begins will be in its third weekend and making less than $15 million on the weekend. It'll have the weekend and the Independence Day week all for itself.

Well I do agree, people will be raising there predictions for both War of the Worlds and Fantastic Four when they see real trailer and not the half-teaser stuff we've had up to now. I mean, c'mon, the WotW trailer you guys are saying has no big eye candy is considered a teaser, and I'm sure a lot of that is just based on the fact that you've already seen the Superbowl spot (because that van driving away from the massive explosion definitely appliess :razz:). Anyways, with Hulk, I honestly think it could've pulled off 75+ million, but mid June is rather well known for having problems getting big openings. It's incredibly rare for a movie to open to much more then a low 30s figure. In 2004, the biggest openings of the month were Spider-Man 2 at 88 million 3 day and Harry Potter at 93 million. Those aside, only Dodgeball could pull off more then 30 million, and that just barely slid over the benchmark. After that, no opening crossed 25 million, and only four crossed 20 million (Riddick, Stepford Wives, Fahrenheit 9/11 and Garfield, although White Chicks made 27 million for it's five day). In 2003, 2 Fast 2 Furious opened to 50 million June 6th, but after that the only movies that pulled off over 12 million opening weekend for June were Hulk with 60 million and Charlies Angels 2 with a dissapointing 37 million. Though 2002 had better results with Scooby Doo, Minority Report, Lilo and Stich, Mr. Deeds, and to a lesser extent The Bourne Identity all doing well, there were still a number of high profile bombs (Bad Company, Windtalkers). That year aside, every other one recently has had far better mid July weekends then mid June. I think a lot of it is that mid June is right around when schools are getting out, so late tests and reports make teens hesitant to go out and see anything unless it's an event movie. There might be other reasons, but it looks pretty clear to me. Now some could make an argument about early July being weak as well (it seems like the high points occur from early May-Memorial Day, then Fourth of July weekend, and it rises again mid July before dying after the second weekend of August). However, last year we had three 50 million openers in a row for July (I, Robot, Bourne Supremacy, The Village), 2001 had Jurrasic Park 3 and Planet to the Apes find huge sucess, and in 2003 we had 45+ million openers each weekend until July 25th, when 5 movies all made over 20 million (the openers made a combined 75 million). Really, I think that movies have more opening weekend potential then, and it seems to show in that there's a lot more movies this summer in early June that look like sleepers rather then 100+ million action extravaganzas.

So even though Fantastic Four may not have as much hype at this point, all of the hype has been very positive about the effects, the characters trade off not being as well known as The Hulk for being much more well liked, and I think it looks a lot more fresh and isn't getting hamstringed by some of the nasty talk people had about Hulk's unfinished effects in the Superbowl spot. If it hadn't had been killed by that, I bet Hulk would've opened 10-15 million higher, so I think assuming Fantastic Four makes about two thirds of that is pretty realistic as it's not quite the event status film that was.

I'm seeing Pirates of the Caribbean all over again with Fantastic Four. That wasn't exactly hyped to the high heavens either, and nobody really had tons of faith in it months before it was released. It appeals to the same demographic, and it's got the right blend of humor, adventure, special FX, and yes, romance, to be a crowd pleaser. It's not going to be as big as POTC, but it's definitely got mass appeal, no question about it.

I would give it around half of that now.

Except Pirates of the Caribbean didn't have laughably bad trailers, of which Fantastic Four already has two. I felt embarassed for everyone involved during the trailer screened on Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.

Now c'mon Dark Shape, the first teaser admittedly was badly put together, but remember how much everyone made fun of Pirates of the Carribean's first teaser too? Everyone said it'd be the biggest bomb of the summer. As for the internet trailer, c'mon, there's a difference between it being laughably bad and you thinking it looks that bad. :razz: Anyways, for Pirates it was the final trailer that came out in early May which made everyone change there minds, and I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing is going to happen all over again.

I see absolutely no reason why War of the Worlds would open to more on opening day than anticipated movies like X2: X-Men United, the first two Harry Potter movies, Star Wars, and Lord of the Rings (except ROTK, which opened to $34.5 million).

Not to mention that War of the Worlds opens on a Wednesday. If your prediction comes true, then it would be every Wednesday movie ever released except Spider-Man 2.

There's just no way that can happen.

What's with all this "WOTW marketing campaign leaves something to be desired" talk, the teasers were fantastic! [-X

I have to side with zing on this. Would be cool if it happens but such huge openings are more often than not the domain of sequels.

I didn't expect my prediction to be a popular one.

It's just that I feel a new Jurassic Park all over again with this one. That one had teaser that didn't show anything up until a couple of months before the movie came out. That's the teasing element of it. Besides that, by the time it'll be released I expect all movies (with the possible exception of Bewitched) to be under $15 million that weekend. This is a lackluster summer. How many big releases do we have, how many certain hits? SW: ROTS, Batman Begins, War of the Worlds and Madagascar. THAT'S IT.

I believe the hype will increase immensly by the new trailer which will be showing in front of Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith. Considering the millions and millions of people who'll see that, the word will spread fast. I mean, seriously, Signs opened to $60+ million without any visual effects or real money shots in its campaign. Why do you expect this one to do any worse? I believe it'll benefit from good reviews as well (something that DAT couldn't). I might be highballing the opening day, but I am absolutely certain it'll be above $25 million.

Oh, I agree they are well made, but there is nothing groundbreaking, which is required for a non-franchise film to become a megablockbuster.

I haven't seen the internet exclusive trailer. I'm speaking for the two I've seen in theaters -- the one that ended with the Thing taking out the semi (to many laughs) -- and the one that focused more on the characters, namely the Inferno kid (I forget his name), with some laughably bad dialogue and stunts. And by laughable, I don't mean I was laughing. I mean the other people in the theater were. I don't care about the flick one way or another, I'm just calling it like I see it.

In this age of sophisticated CGI ladden movies it's almost impossible to be groundbreaking anymore. Nevertheless, everytime i watch one of the WOTW teasers they sent shivers down my spin and i get that "wow, i must see this" feeling, especially that japanese one with the King Arthur soundtrack. The combination of images and music, the editing, they just work for me. Best teaser/trailer i've seen this year (so far) IMHO.

You know, MovieDude, two things on the internet never fail to crack me up. How hindsight affects people's ability to remember the facts, and how "other people in the theater" ALWAYS react in an exaggerated manner that completely supports the opinion of the person that told how those other people reacted. :^o

I am glad to see that you remember how Pirates of the Caribbean was laughed off as a bomb waiting to happen.

Fantastic Four looks like a crowd pleaser. I mean, really, Catwoman had the worst of the hypes following it, horrible trailers with SFX that bad that F4's effects seem like State of the Art and it opened against the benemoth of The Bourne Supremacy. It still opened to $16 million.

Why on earth would you think that F4 wouldn't at least break $30 million then?

No.

FF would be fortunate to break $25M.

I am positive that it'll make $30 million opening weekend at the very least.

Had this been a three day opener i would have tended to agree with $85-90million, but with the wednesday opening i just dont think it can. I possibly have higher predictions for this film than some, but even i don't think it'll come within half a million of ROTK's opening wednesday, i just can't see a non sequel getting that sort of rush to see it.

I see a $20-25 wednesday, followed by a ~$60million three day weekend (still easily $120million+ opening week). Second weekend drop of at least 45% to ~$33million.

I think Fantastic Four could easily open above $33million.

Im getting flashbacks of He Man:Masters of the Universe whenever I see the Fantastic Four trailer. Time to dust off the synthesizer since they will need it to save the world!

Why are people comaring this to Pirates of the Caribbean? Because marketing was bad for both? It's not like wom is gonna save Fantastic4 and it'll have fantastic drops like Caribbean. The trailers are very lackluster and most likely the movie will be aswell. Also this thing about Fantasic4 appealing to kids is a lame argument considering basically all superhero movies appeal to kids.