Crash, yes.

Kingdom of Heaven, no.

So far, nobody has presented a good enough case to shake my confidence. This isn't going to be a breakout hit. I can't understand why the first weekend of May isn't getting a high profile summer fun type of movie, especially considering how box office continues to be off from last year. This was a great opportunity to start this season off with a bang, and instead, studios started it off with an historical type epic, an adult movie that was better left for the awards season (even though I can't wait to see it), and yet another horror remake.

Moviegoers aren't going to just turn out in record numbers because of the date on the calendar. (at least, I hope not)

Paris Hilton's popularity isn't exactly something that covers all demographics. Quite a few of the people who like her aren't even old enough to get into an R rated movie, and the ones that are, will be torn between Paris and Orliemania... (the mind of a bimbo is a scary thing to analyze :yikes: ) Adults will have two clear frontrunners for their movie going pleasure, with House of Wax not being much of a consideration. (Where's the studio genius who didn't put out a movie with at least a PG-13 rating out this weekend. Three R rated movies to start the summer season??? ](*,) ) House of Wax will draw one specific group, and it'll have to fight for the rest against two films that are obviously superior in quality and in appeal with adult audiences. The kids are out of the equation this weekend.

what the hell is with this "paris hilton will die so i'll go watch this" shit.

who didn't expect her to die? shes the blonde .. the bimbo ... the side character .... its a horror movie ... from a party of few people involved in a horror movie, sually half of them die.

Reeker
It's got a token blonde too, but at least here her name is Cookie and she's tripping on E.

It's expected, yes, but it's something audiences want to see...

That's true, but date on the calendar matters in that it reflects other factors such as school schedule. Some colleges (e.g. Duke) are having their finals this week, so I fully expect the number of people who are interested in seeing a movie this weekend to increase over last weekend. The start of May is meaningless by itself, but it happens to be when schools start to close. The start of the summer is determined by school schedules, not by calendar. If our school systems decide to move everything up one month, then you will see all the studios move their movie release schedules up one month. That's why studios will fail if they try to arbitrarily say "hey, I want the summer to start right now" and place XXX2 in April; the movie-going base doesn't expand arbitrarily, especially for the movies that try to attract young audience. Older audience has more of a consistent schedule year round, so the movies targeting them can open in April or July or September, and they can all earn over $20M the opening weekend. It's much less of an issue for them.

I expect the top 10 to gross over 90M this weekend. How they are distributed is a question on its own.

I stand by my mid level prediction.

Since when do good reviews indicate Box Office Gross? If that was true, almost every Hollywood Blockbuster and side film ever made would have been a gigantic flop.

If I loose, big deal. It's not as if it's of any mass importance.

I won the bets on Freddy vs Jason (A film I knew would hit even though a good majority thought wouldn't pull in $10 million total), Myself and Baumer had the highest predictions by far and even we both were short by about $10 million. We both guessed around $30 million for opening weekend and about $70 total if I remember correctly.

Jason X (I said it would be a big flop while others said nope in 2002), Texas Chainsaw remake, The Ring, The Ring 2, H2Blow, Halloween: Pooperection, Scream, and others over the years. I went against the mass opinion most every time. I lost sometimes, but won more than I lost.

I am basing my prediction off my belief. Not off the pure hate of some blond hotel heiress who I could really care less about. The pure hate people show for her seems to be scarier than her acting performances.

Do I have the possiblity of being wrong? Absolutely. But, I could really care less either way. It's not as if I am sharing in the films profits or losses.

I originally thought XXX2 would be a bomb until I was talked out of it. Libs even uped her prediction and she is jaded to all hell when it comes to that movie. It's as if she wants to blow up everyone on the set of the film. I as well as a few others would have been right. So now, I just am going to go with what I think. Sometimes I am right and sometimes I am wrong. No different from every major or minor box office predictor out there.

The Paris death scene will show up online in a week and people will just download those five seconds instead of paying for the whole movie. That knocks most of your potential BO right there.

Just did it again

Search Results

Results 1 - 10 of about 11,900,000 for "Paris Hilton" - 0.12 sec

There will be a movie to benefit from the 1st weekend of May, but that's not going to be House of Wax, much rather will it be Kingdom of Heaven.

So basically the reasoning your giving for House of Wax being a disaster, is that adults will have no interest in this film due to two amazingly interesting [to you perhaps] films being launched this weekend. This film is a a teenage /early 20s directed picture. You do know there are people aged 18-30. They exist. They dont all age miraculously and start having a sudden urge to watch arthouse films or rush to see whatever film Roman Polanski has just forwarded for Oscar Consideration.

It was certainly an active audience when Scream appeared.
PS. my Paris Hilton google resulted in 8,760,000 or 5,690,000 for users of SafeSearch

The marketing for this movie is very crisp; infact its certainly trying to appeal to various demographics that are not traditional. Gay and Teenage Female audiences will have no doubt been subjected to the cleverly placed Chad Michael Murray [without a shirt] ads; whilst Guys websites are placing Hilton and Cuthberth. The wider marketing campaign has a very well done poster and a solid trailer helming it.

Ive not been impressed with practically any horror this year; but this one looks like a lot of fun. THAT SAID everyone, especially teenagers-who-know-all, like to be critics these days. So that barrier could stop people embracing a guilty pleasure.

(to you perhaps...)

I guess we all use different Google's

A horror movie that is being marketed towards gay people. That's gotta be unique

No, seriously, remember The Girl Next Door and how heavily it was overpredicted. That was marketed for Cuthbert as well... And as for Hilton, if the guys want to see her, they'll go online and see her for free.

The movie's problem is exactly the fact that its demographics are limited.

People don't want to see Paris Hilton for Paris Hilton. The marketing campaign is proof enough that people want to see her die.

Every single movie review for it, so far, have mentioned how great her death was.

So is this "See Paris Die Phenomenon" as big as this seeing Darth Vader evolve and the creatures from the Village hype ?

It's bigger! :razz:

But, seriously, I'm not saying this will make $30+ million opening weekend. I don't see why $20 million is so "impossible"...

White Noise - $24,113,565 - $56,386,759
Hide and Seek - $21,959,233 - $51,097,664
Boogeyman - $19,020,655 - $46,476,484
Cursed - $9,633,085 - $19,283,350
The Ring Two - $35,065,237 - $75,686,654
The Amityville Horror - $23,507,007 - $54,816,999 (heading for $70M+)

Only one horror movie this year made less than $40 million. Can somone explain why House of Wax, a movie with mass (and clever) marketing, a great release date (in the summer, with summer weekdays to help), and a large theater count will do less than $40 million total? To do less than $40 million, it would have to open under $15 million, which is what half of you are predicting.

"A horror movie that is being marketed towards gay people. That's gotta be unique "

Jeepers Creepers 2 was.

Thats THE most homoerotic horror film iv ever seen. eheh.

What about Uwe Boll's Alone in the Dark?

For the same reasons that it was "impossible" for xXx 2 to open over 30 million. (let alone 45 million :razz: ) Nobody really cares. It's rated R, so summer weekdays aren't really that much of a factor like it would be with a kid's movie. It's got 2 other R rated movies opening, and those movies are more appealing to adults than House of Wax. Those other movies you listed didn't have the competition that this one has, and it even has Amityville still making money, and no film will be hurt more by those Amityvilledollars than House of Wax.

The horror overkill will show up clearly this weekend.

Actually, a lot of horror films are marketed towards gay people. A big section of the huge horror fanbase are gay people. There's a pretty big underground horror scene right now that makes and distrubutes only gay themed horror. HellBent, for example, is one that has got quite a bit of positive buzz around it recently.

It's the widest Dark Castle release ever. And no Dark Castle film has ever had a pta under $4,100.
That pta would still give House Of Wax over $12,000,000 opening weekend.

It needs a $6,700 pta to reach $20M.

Other horror movies PTAs this year:

White Noise $10,665
The Amityville Horror $7,074
The Ring Two $10,523
Boogeyman $6,232
Hide and Seek $7,307

Less successful:
Cursed $3,434


So, yeah, HOUSE OF WAX, actually COULD break $20M, but with all that competition from KINGDOM OF HEAVEN, it's going to be hard.

I rekon more in between $12M-$20M

Mav, one of your biggest reasons for the apparently imminent failure of House Of Wax has been "people are ready for some summer fun". If that were the case, don't you think xXx 2 would have done a lot better last weekend? And if your theory is true, that doesn't bode well for any of the other flicks being released this weekend, since they're both R rated, downer Dramas. In fact, House Of Wax is easily the most "fun" film being released this weekend.

So, what does HOUSE OF WAX have to gross to show that the horror overkill is in place.


I say, if HOUSE OF WAX makes less than $11M this weekend.....horror is in overkill.

And if it makes over $12M, this movies, a hit....bang on with DARK CASTLEs track record.

People are ready for some fun that doesn't look like a stupid movie that wasn't in demand. That's why nobody cared to go see xXx 2, and that's why people won't go see House of Wax. The other two movies aren't going to set the world on fire at the box office, either. Kingdom of Heaven is the only one that's going to do good business, and it will be very underwhelming by what we've come to expect in the first weekend of May.

First of all, having Hilton in the movie and promoting it will hurt, in my opinion.

Second of all, the movie just doesn't look as good as the others, with the exception of Boogeyman and Cursed (those two looked worse). Boogeyman, however, benefited from having a PG-13 rating and it was at the beginning of the horror wave this year...