F1 55m
M3gan 2.0 29m

Kinda feeling flop for M3gan 2. Maybe less than 18m.

F1: 53m
M3GAN 2.0: 19m

F1 60m
M3gan 2.0 18m

Yeah M3gan is flopping. Bummed that I picked it and Ballerina in the Draft as both have burned me this month.

I had M3gan as a flop since the trailer was made to go viral on social media and people didn't bite.

Fitting that the 28 Days Later series returns on the eve of Megan 2 when its own sequel flopped after switching from horror to action. Which was a shame cause 28 Weeks Later is awesome and could have been a huge hit if the right type of audience saw it.

However, I also think that Megan 2 falls out of our expertise. None of us saw the chicken jockey Minecraft thing coming even though it had apparently been brewing for months. For all we know there's been some huge meme involving it that will lead to a last minute surge in interest.


F1 looks like proper cinema. Hopefully it breaks $50M though 45/175 + huge international seems more realistic and also perfectly fine (though maybe not the best time for relying on overseas audience considering.)

M32 presales are actually ahead of 1st movie but that movie exploded in final 2 days. Not sure if this one can do that. Still I see > 20m OW. Will update on Wednesday.

F1 should open in 50-60m range. Need to see how final week goes as well.

61% RT for M3gan 2 is acceptable, the first had a pretty impressive 93%

M3gan presales are now not looking good. Probably around 2m previews and high teens OW.

F1 is looking at around 9m previews (M/T/W/T all had/have previews) and low 50s OW.

The genre switch

Hehe.

But I find it very interesting how projections go from 20m+ to maybe just 10m in a matter of a week. And the same goes the other way around in a case like Minecraft, where a best case projection a week ahead of time puts it at 80m and then suddenly it just doubles that.

Minecraft exploded in the final week exactly like how Inside Out 2 did last year. That was unexpected for many reasons as this had to be more fan driven that IO2.

M3gan 2 seem to be lost here. Bad release date plus the marketing failed this time around. But I dont see it miss 10m. That needs awful walkups which I hope will not happen. I am thinking at least low teens OW.