Lilo & Stitch is going to win the summer.

Why? IT was originally intended for Disney Plus, so it probably isn't very good. And Little Mermaid showed people are tiring of these unnecessary remakes. Snow White looks to tank in a week and a half.
The original adjusts to just 258m which wouldn't be enough to win the summer. and it matching the original adjusted would be very generous.

He's basically a Hawaii version of Baby Yoda in the trailer, people are going to eat it up.

I still feel like Michael is going to make this list. It's such a wildcard but I feel like everyone's going to be talking about it.

I don’t understand the positive reaction to the stitch trailer. It looks just as creatively bankrupt and mediocre as the other remakes

Michael ain't gonna make its release date. They have to reshoot the third act.

Still think Superman is the only true must-see film of the summer.

Yeah, I don't like that it will happen, but Lilo & Stitch is looking strong. It also has the perfect release date - essentially opening the summer and good distance from Minecraft which wont be that big anyway.

Superman is the other one. It has the benefit of opening before FF4 and as long as WB doesn't drop the ball from here - it should be good for $350m+

Money talks and thats what the people want. One could argue that the main reason Snow White is in trouble is because they changed too much (and the cgi for the dwarves is embarassing.)

Snow White has many problems. From the stunt casting of all sorts of humans as the dwarves to the CGI dwarves (instead of real-life little people - thanks a lot Dinklage) to the catastrophe that is Rachel Zegler. It won't be a total bust but it will fall short.

Yes, people may complain about live action remakes but all they want is a retread of the animated film and that's what they'll get with Stitch.

That’s what Littke Mermaid was and that underperformed.

True - though that had a key change (skin colour) that some people had a problem with. It was also satisfying only the female demo.

That said I thought hitting $300m was good domestically. It was just that it flopped OS.

Stitch has a silly loveable CGI character which will help and it should be more 4-quadrant than Mermaid.

I feel like a lot of us have forgotten the original Stitch and it’s not a musical with famous numbers, so the feeling of waiting to see the original’s scenes recreated is not that bad. Still do I wish we were making new Pirates 1 and Jurassic Parks hits over member this IP - looks cute - good enough for me, yes.

Sadly, new ideas/non existing IP is foreign to the studios these days.

Mickey 17 probably would have had a higher opening in 2005 than it did in 2025 lol.

Lilo and Stitch 24-hour traffic for the trailer that dropped this week clocked 158M views, making it the second most viewed Disney live-action trailer of all time, behind only 2019’s The Lion King teaser trailer.

Yeah, this is going to be a monster. At least we know May will be a big month!

Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning opens the week before, Karate Kid right after. That didn't help last time going against Barbenheimer but should be better off this time than post mid July. Interestingly, the original L&S opened against Minority Report!

Karate Kid has to move though. It's going to get squashed. Push it to August.

Maybe the 2nd weekend of May would be better for Karate Kid.

Well looks like Minecraft will already ruin much of these lists! Seems like a strong chance at top 5 for the year even with some giant films to come. Feels like family films will dominate this year with Lilo, Minecraft and Zootopia. Lots more surprises to come but a great shift in momentum at the box office.

Also guess The Numbers' $280M prediction for Snow White might be off by about $190M.

Not seeing the massive video game Minecraft's movie coming as a hit was one of our biggest collective Ls in a while..

Could this also be a good omen for Anaconda, Jack Black's next movie with Paul Rudd? Not a video game but maybe there's a halo effect with Black / Christmas and overall escapism movies...

Jason Mamoa strikes again with a film that appeared destined for failure far exceeding expectations. He has an understated box office pull.

I think there will still be 3 movies this year bigger than Minecraft unless it has surprisingly good legs. I'll say Avatar, Stitch and Zootopia.

Unless Wicked is terrible it will out gross Minecraft

Minecraft is looking like around 165m OW. I am not sure about legs but there is not that much of a competition for it. if it hits 500m DOM, I expect only Avatar is locked to beat it. Rest are all up in the air.

$165M OW and a holiday in weekend 3 and no competition for almost 2 months for families with possibility of repeat viewings. Total is so up in the air. I do think more than Avatar could top $500M this year though. People are in a moviegoing mood and we've got some more surprises coming. I feel there are plenty of examples now of highly anticipated animated sequels doing $500M+ adjusted that it's not outside the realm of possibility to see Zootopia or Lilo jump there. Incredibles 2, Inside Out 2, Finding Dory, BATB, TLK 2019 are in the $646M - $772M range adjusted.

Here are $500M+ adjusted films released in the last 10 years. There are about 31 so say averages about 3 $500M movies now a year. To keep things in perspective a $300M ish movie of 2006 like POTC is now a $600M ish movie.

11 Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens $1,259,465,234
16 Avengers: Endgame $1,109,815,997
25 Spider-Man: No Way Home $921,856,505
31 Jurassic World $894,688,374
32 Black Panther $888,975,557
37 Avengers: Infinity War $843,638,811
44 Top Gun: Maverick $795,131,458
46 Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi $787,428,609
51 Incredibles 2 $772,339,271
55 Avatar: The Way of Water $756,790,487
65 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $704,102,331
66 The Lion King (2019) $702,717,229
75 Barbie $687,531,293
81 Beauty and the Beast (2017) $662,239,406
83 Finding Dory $654,202,554
89 Inside Out 2 $645,516,138
93 Star Wars: Episode IX - The Rise of Skywalker $640,528,606
99 Deadpool & Wolverine $629,467,373
107 Avengers: Age of Ultron $621,506,464
109 The Super Mario Bros. Movie $621,297,077
115 Frozen II $593,496,887
128 Toy Story 4 $561,131,637
134 Captain Marvel $551,861,124
138 Captain America: Civil War $544,665,351
142 Wonder Woman $537,526,660
143 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom $535,217,769
160 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle $514,105,743
164 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $507,402,735
165 Spider-Man: Far from Home $504,884,157
167 The Secret Life of Pets $504,109,478
169 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $502,069,408

To me the pattern since covid has been about the other movies underwhelming and then it leads to explosion of one of the biggest movies of all time, with at least two big fish every year hence Maverick/Avatar, Barbie/Mario Bros, Inside Out 2/Deadpool 3. Minecraft could still be Mario Bros, but if it falls in the Wicked range of the mini version of this breakout, then I'd still say something else super blows up such as a summer king or Zootopia, and then Avatar is easy to predict as the other.

$500m is the $300m benchmark of yesteryear.