Second tier MCU seems dead to me until further notice.

IMO the closest comparison for this is that xXx sequel from 2005 where they switched out Vin Diesel for Ice Cube, and the box office went from $142M domestic total to.... $26M.

So given that the last solo Captain America movie adjusts to $341M, a similar drop in attendance would mean Captain America: New World Order makes... $63M total. But the Captain America brand is a lot more established so let's be generous and increase that by 50%. That gives us $95M total. Given that this supposedly sucks badly and that badly received comic book movies have had horrendous legs lately, let's give it a $40M OW.

So my prediction is $40M/$95M.

Hope so.

But I'm going higher.

$68m/$211m

MCU is in bad shape.

Though it does feel that this is reasonably anticipated and fans will give it a go.

Im thinking $70/$170m

I think the opening on this will be good enough to avoid the Marvels territory. But could definitely gross less than Ant Man 3

I still see this having a decent opening due to the popularity of the Captain America character. Plus the trailers are decent even if the film is supposedly bad. It’ll also be the first major action tentpole since GLADIATOR 2!

80m+ followed by horrendous legs if it’s actually Terribke.

I'm not certain this is doing $100M total yet but for box office sake hope they turn things around.

It is NOT bombing as hard as the Marvels. Captain America has a much higher floor than a movie about Captain Marvel

Hopefully this is Marvels 2.0 but the faithful might come in considering it would be whole 7 months since Deadpool opened :-) Anyway I will wait for presales to begin before making a call. But I dont see how a captain america without Evans work.

I think it will be in the mid 100s which is still quite a bit below the standards of MCU as of a few years ago.

I think it will match Venom 3 at the very least. BNW and Thunderbolts are both in trouble. I bet Marvel wishes they had Black Panther and Dr Strange 3 in those spots and it probably would have cost less money lol.

Thunderbolts will be the real bomb.

Yeah, Blacktain America ain't flopping. Thunderbolts is, though.

fixed

They have replaced Batman and Spider Man and superman several times. Captain America is a run below them in popularity, but I don't think Evans is irreplaceable.

However, Mackie may have been the wrong choice.

Why?

Was not particularly popular in the original movies or his TV show.

I still think it can do Ant man Quantumania numbers which would be good for current MCU.

He got a tv show & a solo movie so I imagine he was popular enough in the original movies.

The fact he wasn't popular is why he got a TV show. If he was popular enough he would have got a movie right off the bat. Once you are relegated to TV, it ain't good.

The winter soldier is more popular than Falcon.

He lacks charisma to be a lead in a big SH movie. Plus this is not nth version of Batman reboot. They are continuing the same version with new actor wearing the cape or spandex. That is not the same. May be at some point Marvel will do a full reboot and recast Cap along with Iron Man and the rest. Then its a different ball game.

In hindsight, Brave New World probably would have been pretty huge if it had debuted as the first or second movie after Endgame. The tv shows (even the good ones) have really done nothing to help the characters.

Bigger Q is why are they making this instead of say Shang Chi 2 or next Dr Strange movie. Both of them have higher potential than a Cap America movie without Rogers.

They aren't making Shang Chi 2 because the China trend is over since their economy is in the toilet.