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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40454
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 July 12-14 predictions
Fly Me to the Moon only real opener
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sun Jul 07, 2024 5:29 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 19399 Location: San Diego
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Longlegs probably opening in enough theaters to open above that.
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Sun Jul 07, 2024 7:01 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 21526 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Long legs 8 Fly Me to the Moon 15
Tatum is a draw he can get this to the teens.
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Sun Jul 07, 2024 7:23 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35232 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Longlegs - 23 Million Fly Me to the Moon - 5 Million
I upped my Longlegs predictions by a couple million. Not only are Thursday shows pretty full, but Friday evening shows are too.
It looks poised to be this summer's horror sleeper. Good for NEON. They deserve this. I think this is probably the most exciting movie to follow at the box office this summer.
Last edited by Magic Mike on Tue Jul 09, 2024 11:16 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:52 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68294
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
I also don't see anyone caring about Tatum/ScarJo in a 60s-set comedy-drama about the NASA Moon landing. I'll go:
Daddy Longlegs $8 million Fly Tatum to the Moon $4.3 million
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:52 pm |
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flip1
Angels & Demons
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:02 pm Posts: 249
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Longlegs really depends on how many theaters it’s releasing in.
Fly me to the Moon: 13m Longlegs (assuming 2.7k theaters): 11m
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Mon Jul 08, 2024 2:29 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6753
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Long legs sales are on a tear today. I am expecting a mini break out for now. Previews should be 3m ish and OW around low 20s.
Fly me to moon I am not tracking sales but based on other reports seem awful in ticket sales. I am expecting it to bomb. high single digits due to the star cast.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:25 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12193
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Reviews seem decent for Moon but they should have opened it or The Omen during the Solar Eclipse when space interest was sky high. Seems easy to forget it now and a long time ago that Apollo 13 and Armageddon could anchor summer box office with space films.
That's very promising for LongLegs. Cage's comeback post Pig is picking up speed. Could this be his Taken comeback like what that did for Neeson? It could be his biggest non-animated film in 12+ years.
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Mon Jul 08, 2024 11:28 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23323 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Longlegs - 21m Fly Me to the Moon - 10m
Fly Me to the Moon seems light weight and frivolous. Don't think it will have much of an impact.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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Tue Jul 09, 2024 12:53 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12193
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Inside Out 2 made $3.7M on Monday (Global tally now a fun $1.234B)!
DM4 $9.3M with the exact same Monday drop (-56%) as DM2 which had similar days. If it follows the daily trends could drop 48% next weekend but likely better since DM2 had Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim in its 2nd weekend ($79M combined in openings).
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Tue Jul 09, 2024 4:05 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40454
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
I think that's a good drop for DM4.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:03 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68294
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
$20m for Longlegs? Yeah, I'll believe it when I see it.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:55 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12193
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
$15M Tuesday for DM4, far surpassing DM2. Granted, there was a $5 mobile promotion I believe but that's 72% of it's Sunday gross. Expecting a big drop for Wed.
Inside Out 2 $5,581,053 -50% $543,529,558
Wow at Inside Out pulling such a big gross against DM4. Going to coast past $600M+.
A Quiet Place: Day One $3,354,641 -50% $99,774,672
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Wed Jul 10, 2024 5:49 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40454
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
15 million for DM? Plus it has relatively open 2nd weekend.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Wed Jul 10, 2024 5:54 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6753
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Charlie is saying 10m/4.75m wednesday for DM4/IO2. This has to bee the biggest impact due to TMobile Tuesday promo. Obviously $5 ticket to see any movie in any format(including PLF) makes it incredibly attractive. TMobile has 99m post paid customers !!! of course majority wont use it as they dont bother to even download the T-Life App. Still the impact will be seen till this weekend. Expect really strong holds and even good positive impact to Long legs and Fly me to the moon.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Wed Jul 10, 2024 9:53 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 19399 Location: San Diego
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Cool to see. Hope we see strong drops this weekend. I'm using my code on Princess Mononoke since those Ghibli releases don't work for A-list lol
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Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:18 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 25312 Location: Classified
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
publicenemy#1 wrote: Cool to see. Hope we see strong drops this weekend. I'm using my code on Princess Mononoke since those Ghibli releases don't work for A-list lol How does the tmobile thing work? I've googled it but no help. Cause I would love to get a $5 ticket for Princess Mononoke.
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Thu Jul 11, 2024 4:32 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6753
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
if you have TMobile post paid, download T Life app and you can get the coupon code. Go to Atom and book the ticket. They are waiving even booking fees here.
Flava, sent you a PM.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Jul 11, 2024 4:36 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 19399 Location: San Diego
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote: publicenemy#1 wrote: Cool to see. Hope we see strong drops this weekend. I'm using my code on Princess Mononoke since those Ghibli releases don't work for A-list lol How does the tmobile thing work? I've googled it but no help. Cause I would love to get a $5 ticket for Princess Mononoke. If you have T-Mobile download the T-Life app and then you can redeem the code to use on Atom 
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Thu Jul 11, 2024 4:42 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12193
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Can you walk through the box office here Keyser?
If TMobile does a $5 promo, and DM does $15M on Tuesday, were those $5 tickets contributing $5 to the box office each or is it more an average ticket ($10-12) contribution to the box office number but studio or TMobile cover that extra $5?
How much of that $15M is actually $15M or is there padding of artificial grosses here that a studio is covering?
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Thu Jul 11, 2024 5:31 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 21526 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
O wrote: Can you walk through the box office here Keyser?
If TMobile does a $5 promo, and DM does $15M on Tuesday, were those $5 tickets contributing $5 to the box office each or is it more an average ticket ($10-12) contribution to the box office number but studio or TMobile cover that extra $5?
How much of that $15M is actually $15M or is there padding of artificial grosses here that a studio is covering? If I’m correct, T-Mobile is subsidizing the studio for the rest of the ticket?
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Thu Jul 11, 2024 6:07 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6753
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
O wrote: Can you walk through the box office here Keyser?
If TMobile does a $5 promo, and DM does $15M on Tuesday, were those $5 tickets contributing $5 to the box office each or is it more an average ticket ($10-12) contribution to the box office number but studio or TMobile cover that extra $5?
How much of that $15M is actually $15M or is there padding of artificial grosses here that a studio is covering? My expectation is studio would calculate based on flat ticket price. Its like for A-List customers buying a ticket. Its not same as retail but its not something very low. Based on market tier the theater reports these at certain rate and that is how studio calculates the ticket price. In the case of TMobile/Atom, there are multiple stakeholders here who all would have to take some small cut i believe. But Tmobile has to be the biggest as they get the benefit of sticky customers. but its win win for all of them. Studios get to report bigger BO, theaters get more folks come into the multiplex and so will buy popcorn/drinks/food etc and its publicity for Atom as well.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Jul 11, 2024 6:55 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 25312 Location: Classified
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Has anyone been to a Phoenix theater? Went to one tonight that used to be a regal and damn... they fixed it up really nice. Huge screen and dolby sound.
Longlegs was pretty crowded and on two screens (of 10?) Movie is very cinematic. WoM should be strong, but some parts might turn people off.
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Thu Jul 11, 2024 11:12 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6753
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Deadline is saying 3m previews. I think it go up a bit from that. it seems to be playing well based on most reports. Of course the previews started only at 7PM(it feels ridiculous to say only for 7PM but we are used to 3PM start now). it also played mostly in 1 screen or at most 2 regular screens at most multiplex
Fly me is around 800K plus whatever it did with early shows last weekend. Unless it has huge walkups from tomorrow night its looking like a bust.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Jul 11, 2024 11:58 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12193
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 Re: July 12-14 predictions
Thanks for your response on the $5 ticket. Funny how Scarlett jumped on Jurassic Park right after Moon. Maybe she knew all along she needed another guaranteed blockbster? "Previews" now include Wed, weekend before showings, etc. I heard there is a 30th anniversary Lion King release happening this weekend. It's made $400M+ already domestically in previews going back to 1994. 
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Fri Jul 12, 2024 12:03 am |
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