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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20637 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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March 29-31 Predictions
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire- 49m
Ghostbusters -60%
Kong and Panda will hold really well with Good Friday boosting them.
Last edited by zwackerm on Fri Mar 22, 2024 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Fri Mar 22, 2024 9:24 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22083 Location: Places
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
Fundraising prediction for the weekend?
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Fri Mar 22, 2024 10:27 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20637 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
Can a mod please move this to the box office forum I put it in here by mistake!
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Fri Mar 22, 2024 12:35 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6405
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
Godzilla - 60m.
Its a backloaded walkup friendly movie. Its going to open well for sure.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Fri Mar 22, 2024 5:49 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20637 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
It looks better than Ghostbusters at least.
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Fri Mar 22, 2024 5:56 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 24319 Location: Classified
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
I'm still surprised this isn't a slam dunk monster hit. Godzilla v Kong reignited movie theaters after every other studio had left them for dead. I know Zaslav sucks, I want him fired more than anyone, but WB deserves a win here.
_________________ Kamala 24-32
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Sat Mar 23, 2024 1:55 am |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6212 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
Godzilla vs Kong looks like a 4 year old's fever dream, I think it might be "too much" at this point, kind of how Transformers jumped the shark at one point
$47M OW
_________________ .
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Sat Mar 23, 2024 2:51 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11794
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
Frozen Empire had a very strong Saturday according to Empire and is playing like a family film.
That bodes well for it over Easter even with Godzilla / Kong.
The combo of Godzilla/Kong, Dune2, KFP4 and Ghostbusters with a long weekend should lead to some solid box office.
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Sat Mar 23, 2024 8:47 pm |
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flip1
Speed Racer
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:02 pm Posts: 126
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
Godzilla: 63m Ghostbusters: 18m Dune: 9m Panda: 8.5m
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Sun Mar 24, 2024 2:46 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6405
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
There are folks thinking OW in 70s is possible based on presale trend(it amped up big time yesterday). I would wait to see how it goes today. But thursday evening would behave like a friday and so previews will over perform relative to expectations and Friday is like a saturday. I am bumping up my OW predict to 65m but it has higher potential if trend continues.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Tue Mar 26, 2024 12:03 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21739 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
Easter Is such a horrible release date, the pre sales will be misleading for it. The IM are terrible: GK would need a 34 million OD to flirt with 70 (And this has no where near the hype of the 2014 film to get to those numbers)
Fantastic Beasts- 2.1 Furious 7- 2.2 BVS- 2.04 Mario- 2.66 (And that's only because it opened on Wednesday) Clash of the Titans- 2.13
I don't see this going much more than 28 million, but would not be surprised if it went as low as King of the Monsters which had 19 OD.
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Tue Mar 26, 2024 2:45 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20637 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
It should be much less fan driven than most of those.
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Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:26 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21739 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
The first barely did 2x its 5 day. Clash of the titans had no fanbase, this is the 5th sequel to an already pretty front loaded franchise. The first film made an X-men movie look like it had good legs. But it really doesn’t matter the genre, all films have similarly bad multipliers. I still remember when they thought it was a good idea to open grind house on Easter weekend. What Godzilla and Kong did 5 day would be about a 23 OD
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Tue Mar 26, 2024 7:53 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20637 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
Budget is only 135m
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Wed Mar 27, 2024 12:15 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11794
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
KFP4's weekend is completely up in the air.
On the one hand last weekend it dropped 50%. On the other, it's Monday was down 17% from last week and Tuesday is down 8%. More people on Easter Break now but will it have a great hold this weekend or will Godzilla / Kong give it a big drop?
The weekend drop range could possibly go from it going up slightly to a 50% drop. It could go into the weekend with $141M or so and with a 4 day weekend will at least get it probably to $160M+.
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Wed Mar 27, 2024 3:15 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6212 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: Budget is only 135m How is it that low? Did they outsource the vfx to AI?
_________________ .
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Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:12 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20637 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
It looks cartoony from the trailer so maybe they just didn't try as hard.
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Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:17 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6405
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
Definitely thinking 70-75m OW at this point. Its set for the break out.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:59 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 24319 Location: Classified
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
Most probable answer is that majority of screen time is with humans until about $100M+ shows up for the last 30 minutes.
_________________ Kamala 24-32
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Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:20 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20637 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
It must be a stinker if there's still no reviews.
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Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:18 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67514
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
That means nothing. Every Fast and Furious flick is shit but they still make millions.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:26 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6405
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
its at 60% after 107 reviews with top critics its just at 38%. Metacritic is at 49. That said its not relevant for this monster porn movie. Let us rather see how Post Trak scores are.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Mar 28, 2024 6:36 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6405
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
Previews are looking at 9.5-10m range. Should be a huge breakout. OD should be in low to mid 30s and OW > 75m.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Fri Mar 29, 2024 12:16 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38886
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
Would be huge! Proving again people still like movies where there's a recognizable character in the title, just as long as they're not superhero
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Fri Mar 29, 2024 12:47 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11794
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Re: March 29-31 Predictions
Much needed overperformance! Need it going into April with Mario. Good March overall with Dune 2 ($275M+), KFP4 ($170M+), Ghostbusters ($120M+), Godzilla x Kong ($140M+) over 5 weeks.
Godzilla Minus One was a great way to market the new movie. Let's see a double feature.
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Fri Mar 29, 2024 12:56 am |
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