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December 29-January 1 Predictions
December 29-January 1 Predictions
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 21527 Location: West Chester, Pennsylvania
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 December 29-January 1 Predictions
Ferrari actually did ok on Monday. If it follows similar movies, it can do over 20m total.
Predictions for totals through January 1st The Color Purple 30m/41m 4 day/95m total Wonka 26m/35m 4-day/135m total Migration 22m/28m/66m total Aquaman 18.5m 3 day /23m 4 day/86m total The Boys in the Boat 16m/21m 4 day/40m total Ferrari 8m/10.5m/20m total Anyone But You 6m/7.5m/ 29.5m total The Iron Claw 4.5m/6m/22m total The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes 2.5m/3.5m/160m total
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Tue Dec 26, 2023 1:47 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40455
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 Re: December 29-January 1 Predictions
Damn Boys in the Boat 40 mil after a week would be impressive
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Tue Dec 26, 2023 1:53 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68294
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 Re: December 29-January 1 Predictions
I am underwhelmed by Migration's current numbers.
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Tue Dec 26, 2023 6:31 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12193
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 Re: December 29-January 1 Predictions
Annual box office is $8,643,936,269 as of Monday. Add in 4 early estimates for Dec. 26th grosses and that's another $31.5M. Add another $12M conservatively for other Dec. 26th holdovers.
That leaves $8.687B. Can we make $313M over 5 days? Ballpark give $30M daily total to Wed and another $30M daily total to Thursday, would bring us to a $253M gap.
Last weekend made $138,732,293 total with Christmas Eve. 2017's grosses NY went up 8.9% over Christmas over comparable days so that would give a weekend gross of $151.1M, leaving a gap of $102M short of $9B.
Ever so close but at least the 2023 box office is projected to be up +20.77% for the year.
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Wed Dec 27, 2023 3:02 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12193
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 Re: December 29-January 1 Predictions
Rough weekend projections based on dailies and some historical patterns and random guesses:
The Boys in the Boat 16m/21m 4 day/40m total
1 Wonka $27.08M +50% $138.0M 2 Migration $19.30M +55% $56.4M 3 Aquaman $17.2M -38% $75.5M 4 Color Purple $14.6M NEW $46.9M 5 Anyone But You $9.3M +55% $25.4M 6 Boys In The Boat $8.7M NEW $22.3M 7 Iron Claw $4.76M -2% $16.1M 8 Ferrari $4.0M NEW $10.9M 9 Hunger Games $3.8M +24.8% $160.9M 10 Godzilla $2.91M +10% $46.2M
-Wonka slightly improved it's retention with Jumanji (2017) so could be not that far off from that increase (+38.4%). More family skewing so maybe a bigger increase. -Migration giving higher than Puss' second weekend increase given better dailies. -Anyone But You I feel could pull a little less than a La La Land type increase. -Color Purple I went with Concussion to extrapolate possible similar demo pattern but accounting for rush out.
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Sat Dec 30, 2023 2:40 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23323 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: December 29-January 1 Predictions
O wrote: Annual box office is $8,643,936,269 as of Monday. Add in 4 early estimates for Dec. 26th grosses and that's another $31.5M. Add another $12M conservatively for other Dec. 26th holdovers.
That leaves $8.687B. Can we make $313M over 5 days? Ballpark give $30M daily total to Wed and another $30M daily total to Thursday, would bring us to a $253M gap.
Last weekend made $138,732,293 total with Christmas Eve. 2017's grosses NY went up 8.9% over Christmas over comparable days so that would give a weekend gross of $151.1M, leaving a gap of $102M short of $9B.
Ever so close but at least the 2023 box office is projected to be up +20.77% for the year. Very close to $9b which i think is good as could be expected. December ended up being quite the overachiever.
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Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:24 am |
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