Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour- 155m

OW $198.9M

I'll go with 153m for now

I see what you did there .

Eras is basically working with a 2.5 day weekend as opposed to most movies that get 3.5 days. Because of that, I don't think it can get to $200M. Barbie is interesting though. Taylor loves getting world records and "Highest Opening Of The Year" would be a very appealing accomplishment for her. Highest for a female lead movie is likely out of the question. The Force Awakens wasn't really marketed with Daisy as the lead (I remember Boyega being the most featured new character but the return of Ford, Fisher and Hammil was the draw) if you want to get technical, but The Last Jedi certainly was.

So I'll go with $167M domestic and $300M worldwide. I also think it will have a decent second weekend drop (around 50%), but then fall off a cliff after that as Freddy's steamrolls the box office. So $390M / $825M totals are my current final guesses.

Eras- 225 mil

Wouldn't be shocked if it goes much higher.

Taylor is also going to benefit from opening on the weekend where the annual box office for 2023 is likely to go past 2022 and be the biggest since 2019. We're at about $7.1B now. Need to get to $7.37B to top 2022. Will highly likely happen with the Eras push.

So not only is she possibly going to be having the biggest OW of the year (In the first half of October), she will also get a bunch of headlines how she's helped get the industry to it's biggest post pandemic box office year ever. Couldn't have timed it better!

I still see like 120 but I’ll probably be wrong I guess.

I honestly can’t believe how gullible teenage girls are. There is literally nothing worse than watching a live event whether it be a play or a concert on a movie screen. It kills the experience by 50% by default . Good on the sake of box office though.

Millions of her fans that aren't teenage girls are gonna go and probably have a great time

114m

We are giving away cash prizes to the top two closest boxoffice predictors for the domestic weekend gross of #TSTheErasTourFilm. Go in our Derby and place your bets by Friday, 9am EST. http://www.worldofkj.com/derby.php
Predictions open Monday night

More info: viewtopic.php?f=12&t=487

it had extraordinary presales start. Biggest ever I tracked and bigger than any MCU movie except Endgame(I dont have raw data for that movie). But it has almost no pace over past few weeks and it looks to have weakest finish among all blockbuster releases. I am expecting OW closer to 100m than 200m at this point. Its mother of all frontloaded presales movie. Nothing is in that ballpark. Not the worst reviewed DCEU movie or anything else.

Yeah seems like everybody who was gonna buy a ticket already got one. But we still have a full week to build more hype and Taylor is a master of marketing her projects. She could say something like "the secret songs are different for each showing" and drive her fans into buying multiple showings throughout the weekend.

That’s probably too high

I think Taylor is being underestimated. I still say high 100's or over 200. Basically every showing, of many showtimes, is sold out or close to it on Friday. That's pretty much anywhere I look. And Saturday is looking similar.

These concert movies are always fanbase-driven. Taylor happens to have a bigger fanbase than anyone else, but it still has limited appeal to other regular moviegoers. So closer to $100M sounds right. I'm going to guess $115M OW. Still absolutely massive.

There's always the possibility of last minute FOMO. There are a lot of people that went to Eras that weren't even Taylor fans to begin with but it almost became a status thing on social media. I wouldn't be shocked to see something similar of people going to the movie to post on social media they went to see the movie even if they aren't avid fans.

Tons of people will watch Eras in the end but it’s a great fit to stream at home

I feel like it would be much better to see it in a theater. I'm almost convinced to. The hype is getting to me. I didn't even like Taylor Swift a couple months ago. I was kind of coming around recently and do like some of her songs, but now I'm starting to dislike her again after this bullshit stunt of releasing The Eras Tour on Thursday at the last minute. Now, if I do go, it will just be later in its run if you can eventually see it with A-list.

Looks like the SAG strike isn't ending soon. Wonder if we'll get more delays... stuff like Deadpool is surely moving.

Agreed. I won't be seeing it but if I was to - this would be ripe for theatrical.

Hopefully Friday the 13th and people needing to sneak into eras might help exorcist, and especially saw and haunting in Venice.

Always trust in KJ to hype up and overblow a film as "the next" big thing.