Doesn't really seem like there are many contenders tbh.

As of now these will probably be in the top 5 by the end of the year:
Super Mario Bros
Spiderverse
Guardians 3

Contenders...
-everything disappoints and The Little Mermaid stays top 5
-MI7 - not convinced but since its supposedly great maybe
-Barbie - yeah, think its happening but who knows how legs will be
-Wish - Disney animation is kinda on life support but maybe this does amazingly well? Doubtful but maybe
-Dune - ... don't see it going above $250m tbh
-Marvels - see big decrease from #1
-Hunger Games - don't see it opening above $100m so nah
-Wonka - need trailer first
-Aquaman 2 - early word is not encouraging, will probably be the last DCEU movie and there's the stench from this year for DC but it has a great spot?

Good takes on all. It's hard to choose another two. I guess Dead Reckoning and The Little Mermaid will round out the top five....and nothing from winter, lol, which seems unimaginable right now, but who knows maybe it happens. I don't see The Lost Kingdom or Wonka doing $300m.

I'd love a few wildcards to at least join the top 10.

Never going to happen but Exorcist pulling an IT type run would be fun. Need a big horror mega breakout.

Napoleon ends up being Gladiator type quality and epic level and becomes a massive breakout?

TMNT rides the nostalgia wave from Mario and Barbie and benefits to an overperformance.

Hunger Games is a wildcard if they nail the marketing (fanbase is there, we just hated mockingjay) it'll explode like the first two.

Barbie is a lock but Oppenheimer seems like it has a serious chance to be make it to the top 5! It's not even in the options list.

It's eye-opening to realise just how recent Barbie became a guaranteed Top 3 movie of the year. Like, it's not as if everyone knew it was going to be yuge all year. It's just in the last ten days or so.

I see at least one movie from the holiday season breaking out to 300m+

Wish and Wonka actually look like the biggest contenders. I see 200m for Dune but not 300m

I wonder how many of the 6 movies still to open will move to 2024...

WONKA is probably the only movie being a safe 2023 release as this one is perfect for Christmas...

you realized it too late. But I have been on this train since its last trailer in May(Zwackerm started his 100m club back then) and crazy strong social media reactions. That said even I must admit it became a juggernaut in last 2 weeks. Its presales was growing bigger than even SH movies !!! Only thursday it hit a wall due to limited capacity compared to saturated MCU movies.

I have been very confident on Oppenheimer doing well(better than Dunkirk at least due to bigger cast and Manhattan project being way bigger deal than Dunkirk) but it being in conversation for Top 5 is not something even I considered :-)

Given Mr. Beast had his own chocolate factory I feel like there is such a natural tie in for a big viral campaign here.

I also just searched "Wonka" and on Google the people also searched function showed "Barbie" as another movie people searched for so seems like that audience rushing to Barbie is going to go to Wonka in droves. It's the only 2023 movie listed so has event factor on it.

I'd feel comfortable enough saying Wonka is probably headed for $250M+. It needs a $40M OW in Dec to probably get there given the beneficial holiday box office.

Yeah, Wish and Migration.

I will admit I was very, very doubtful on Barbie originally especially after the 2001 teaser which I feel most can agree wasn't that great. However, the first trailer after that sealed the deal. Margot having two flops cast a lot of doubt but shows how one role can change everything. Babylon and Barbie were just one role past each other. Just like TGM and MI for Cruise.

Spider-verse on the other hand I was on for a while. The data showed that was going to be a big hit from a mile away given the legs of the first one. Barbie though almost took a TPOTC type hype machine to translate to a mega blockbuster run very last minute.

In hindsight, things really changed for Barbie when they filmed that roller skating scene at Venice Beach. It went viral from there and just kept accelerating.

Creating moments like that in the real world might be a key for some future movies looking to create viral campaigns. Also can't understate Gosling and his "Ken-ergy" seems to enter the pop culture world at a level I don't think anyone could have anticipated but people ate it up and he probably socialized a lot of males to watch it that may not have otherwise.

I think the 2001 teaser was genius. It presented Barbie as culturally and historically significant, and hinted that the film would be more profound than just a high gloss, high concept comedy.

Not including 2020 which only really had 2 months of normal box office, it may be the first time since 2011 that Disney doesn't have a top 3 film for the year.

Super Mario ($575M), Barbie ($400M+) seem solids for getting in there.

Guardians is #3 with $358,826,794 but Oppenheimer could very well top that (4.46X multiplier).

They still have Haunted Mansion, Haunting In Venice, Marvels, and Wish. I have a hard time seeing Marvels get to $360M+ so Wish would have to be a pop culture phenom to get there.

Spidey is #3.

Yes, so Disney would need $385m or so to crack the Top 3. Not likely unless most other studios abandon the rest of the year and competition is low.

Whoops, yes, how did I miss that.

To be fair to Disney slipping a bit... they had an insane last decade (2010-2019) that might never be matched by another studio again. And who knows how far back you have to go to find when the last studio dominated like Disney did for so long, and if any did, they did with less studio competition I'd wager.

Having a more down year, or a couple/few since a sudden turnaround shouldn't be expecting either, after such a run shouldn't be anything to really be disappointed about. They'll just need to reevaluate some things and make sure the $250/300 pandemic budgets stay pandemic budgets and not the norm moving forward.

While Disney's run is legendary, they were spurred basically by franchises. MCU, SW, Live Action of Iconic animation movies and Pixar. I would like to see list dominated by something unexpected like what we are seeing this year. While Mario and Barbie have hooks from elsewhere they were definitely not a sure thing at all.

3.6 multiplier needed for Oppenheimer for this to be a possibility for it. Never thought it'd even be possible.

With Iger back in the helm he's relied a lot on M&A to revitalize the Disney brand with:

Muppets (2004) - Limited impact
Pixar (2006)
Marvel (2009)
Lucasfilm (2015)
Fox (2019) - Feels vastly underutilized so far

Re-imaginings for sure have been the Disney playbook to big results but they were always experts at regurgitating their animated movies with classics like:

The Hunchback of Notre Dame 2: The Secret of the Bell
Cinderella 2: Dreams Come True
Little Mermaid 2: Return to the Sea

I took a look at 2000 to now and here are Disney's $200M+ movies that aren't SW/Pixar/Marvel/live action reimaginings:

-Narnia, POTC, Frozen, Tangled, Big Hero 6, Zootopia, Moana, Ralph Breaks The Internet

6/8 are original Disney animation movies
1/8 theme park ride
1 literary classic

Feel Disney's best move will probably be to do some type of acquisition for new popular IP but better route that has been the best for them as been their animation arm. They've had pretty buzzworthy animated movies. Encanto almost certainly would have done $200M+ if it stayed in theaters too.

Looks like the top 5 year end will be:

Mario
Barbie
Spider-Verse
GOTG 3
Oppenheimer

3 out of 5 being originals! Rare.

What's so great about Oppenheimer is that it shows high caliber auteur pictures, even if they're 3hrs long and depressing and philsophical, can still have a MASSIVE audience. I feel like this was somewhat common up to the 90s and then became increasingly rare in the 21st century.

Nolan is an industry in and of himself.