Early #s from Deadline

Barbie - 20
Oppenheimer - 9m+

This is gonna be such a crazy weekend.

And ironically... this weekend is only happening literally due to WB's day and date deal. If that never happened Oppenheimer probably would've been a WB film. Crazy.

So early to tell but if it followed BATB's preview to OW pattern would be at $214M. If it followed The Hunger Games it would be at $155M. The range of the OW still feels very up in the air but not sure if I see $200M here.

You're right, if WB didn't do what they did in 2021 there would be no Barbenheimer. It's almost as if WB has been purposely doing as much to ruin their movie business as possible so that it could redeem itself this weekend by opening one of the biggest pop culture movies ever against perhaps its most favorite director's new movie. Feel like the script around how this weekend culminated between Hollywood decision making in the pandemic would be an interesting doc itself (which probably is coming eventually).

I think Barbie's OW will be around $175m as word of mouth is good but not spectacular and could weigh in by Sunday.

Oppenheimer - what are we looking at? High 70/80m's???

Crazy!

BUT - awesome as this has to be the most exciting BO weekend in years.

Obviously crazy previews for expectations a few months ago

I am going with 21m Barbie and 10m Oppenheimer. Both movies(especially Oppy) was limited by show count. Both these movies had lowest show count for the box office they are grossing. This will translated to much better than norm internal multiplier. Friday presales are off the charts for both the movies and show count is way better compared to what they had today.

Oppenheimer is such a head scratcher. For this to outopen stuff like MI, Indy, Flash... yeah, fucking crazy. I really don't know how it would've done without this hype from this weekend. I could see 50s but certainly not what it's gonna do now. Makes me wonder how Tenet would've done under regular circumstances.

Tenet would have done well - perhaps a $50-60m OW. Though it certainly didn't have the cross promotion this film has had.

where's mark? we need some trickling.

WB has had only 1 $170M+ movie since 2019 (Batman) and 3 $110M+ movies (Black Adam, Elvis, Batman). So they could have an OW now that outgrosses every movie other than Batman they've released the last 3.5 years!

Loved seeing the theater packed with different kinds of movie fans tonight. One of my favorite theatrical experiences front to back for Oppenheimer. Hopefully it will be the same when I eventually see Barbie.

Someone posted at BOT. Imax 70mm theater in Melbourne has most shows sold out till end of August for Oppy !!!!

https://imaxmelbourne.com.au/session_ti ... ?movie=476

Yeah it's cool to see geniuine excitement for movies. Fun to see all the people wearing pink lol kinda reminded me of midnight movies

MI is facing two openers and a holdover that could combine for $300M+ this weekend and feel it's drop will be quite bad.

Unfortunately I have a tough time seeing a huge number of moviegoers suddenly going back to see MI August 11th weekend (its 5th when it may regain some IMAX screens) when its OW started relatively low and Oppenheimer demand likely still will stay high (as well as demand from new movies coming).

Even with optimistic drops of 35% in weekend 3 and 4, it will be in the single digits likely by then.

Might as well just do a TGM/MI double feature at that rate.

Yes I posted it in another thread. I won't be able to watch it in Imax till late August at best. If that.

Not $200 million (!?!?!) being a possibility ??

I’m doing the Double feature on Sunday. Can’t wait.

21m for Barbie gets it to 148m if it follows recent superhero movies. Hopefully 150-170 happens

9-10m for Oppenheimer should mean at least 80m OW and keeps biggest non #1 opening in play.

Also doing Barbenheimer tomorrow. Oppenheimer in IMAX first, then Barbie in Dolby. So excited. Going to wear a pink top and black leggings to represent the dichotomy lol

This is going to be an epic weekend where everyone wins

on my way to see Oppenheimer yesterday, I saw a bunch of little girls and women in their best Barbie outfits....LOTS OF PINK!

Theater counts from BOR:

#MissionImpossible - 4,321 (-6)
#SoundOfFreedom - 3,285 (+20)
#IndianaJones - 2,885 (-980)
#Elemental - 2,720 (-515)
#InsidiousMovie - 2,554 (-634)
#SpiderVerse - 1,669 (-908)
#NoHardFeelings - 1,017 (-1,036)
#Transformers - 834 (-1,207)
#TheLittleMermaid - 620 (-995)

Spider-verse had been holding so well but should see a significant hit from that count and B+O.

Sound still should be able to hold well adding theaters.

Mermaid looks like it will nosedive but was $4.5M from $300M and as a kids movie should still find its way to that milestone with summer weekdays and a Disney push end of summer likely.

The power! The impact!

$10.5M from Oppenheimer in the article.

Variety also says MI is expected to gain $28 million to $30 million in its second weekend.

I'm not sure if that's just a rough estimate but if that did happen that would be exceptional for MI if it can pull that type of drop off in the high 40s.

Terrific for both!