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 April 14-16 Predictions 

Will Renfield gross 15m OW?
Yes 60%  60%  [ 3 ]
No 40%  40%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 5

 April 14-16 Predictions 
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Post April 14-16 Predictions
Renfield 18m
The Pope’s Exorcist 9m
Mafia Mamma 2m

Buzzy anime film Suzume could also do well but not sure if it will be wide

Mario -60%


Fri Apr 07, 2023 10:07 am
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Suzume is going pretty wide, one of the widest releases ever for an original anime film?



Weathering with You (the director's last film) made $8M domestic, so this could have a decent (if probably frontloaded) run.


Fri Apr 07, 2023 10:55 am
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Having a hard time figuring out which new flicks to add to this upcoming weekend's Derby.

Renfield for sure.

Suzume?
Pope?
MM?

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Mon Apr 10, 2023 4:33 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Renfield 18m
The Pope’s Exorcist 9m
Mafia Mamma 2m

Buzzy anime film Suzume could also do well but not sure if it will be wide

Mario -60%


Suzume looks wide to me and has sold more tickets than Renfield where I track plus it has Imax as well. That said it will be quite frontloaded and so Renfield should have a bigger OW. I am thinking 15m for Renfield and high single digit for Suzume.

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Mon Apr 10, 2023 4:39 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
I think Mario is gonna have a mother of god type of drop. Like $90Mish.

Renfield - $12M - looks interesting but Cage will draw as many as he scares away
Suzume - I dunno but I hope its playing near me cause it looks solid


Mon Apr 10, 2023 10:06 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Is Mario going to have a lot of repeat viewings? I don’t see any reason for it to drop crazy well, other than it’s Sunday will not be depressed


Mon Apr 10, 2023 10:08 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Mario also had Wednesday and Thursday grosses to relieve the weekend gross - for comparison to other recent mega-openers you would need to remove their Thursday previews to get a better idea of what its drop could look like. Plus the movie definitely has the kind of "everyone is going to see it!" hype that usually helps soften second weekend drops like it did for the original Spider-Man, the first Avengers, Black Panther...a sub-40% drop is definitely not impossible.


Tue Apr 11, 2023 11:48 am
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Is Mario going to have a lot of repeat viewings? I don’t see any reason for it to drop crazy well, other than it’s Sunday will not be depressed
I don't think it needs repeat viewings yet. Parents will be telling each other that the movie is a fantastic babysitter and that's gonna get the theaters packed full.


Tue Apr 11, 2023 12:25 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Is Mario going to have a lot of repeat viewings? I don’t see any reason for it to drop crazy well, other than it’s Sunday will not be depressed
I don't think it needs repeat viewings yet. Parents will be telling each other that the movie is a fantastic babysitter and that's gonna get the theaters packed full.


I mean I don’t think it will have a historically bad drop but a drop significantly better than Minions 2 would shock me.


Tue Apr 11, 2023 12:29 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Jonathan wrote:
Mario also had Wednesday and Thursday grosses to relieve the weekend gross - for comparison to other recent mega-openers you would need to remove their Thursday previews to get a better idea of what its drop could look like. Plus the movie definitely has the kind of "everyone is going to see it!" hype that usually helps soften second weekend drops like it did for the original Spider-Man, the first Avengers, Black Panther...a sub-40% drop is definitely not impossible.


oh it's dropping LESS than 50% for sure :D or my name is not Revolutions

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Tue Apr 11, 2023 2:10 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Pope's Exorcist at 64% right now.

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Wed Apr 12, 2023 12:14 am
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Holdovers will probably have rough drops. Lots of openers this weekend.


Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:02 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
6 openers this weekend? Theater counts below.

3300 - Renfield
3000 - ThePopesExorcist
2002 - MafiaMamma
2000 - Suzume
1204 - Sweetwater
933 - Nefarious

Last weekend's 3day gross was $205,106,577 so lets see how many openers end up getting knocked out by a turtle shell.


Thu Apr 13, 2023 5:04 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
The Pope's Excorcist is such a late August movie. How did it end up in this crowded house?


Thu Apr 13, 2023 5:22 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Pretty cool and random Suzume is getting some Imax screens lol seeing it later


Thu Apr 13, 2023 5:58 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Preview numbers out so far:

Renfield $900,000
The Pope’s Exorcist $850,000
Suzume $680,000


Fri Apr 14, 2023 11:13 am
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Quote:
https://deadline.com/2023/04/box-office ... 235325394/

Five wide releases hit theaters this weekend, but Illumination and Universal’s Super Mario Bros. Movie will reign supreme with a second weekend, -60% of $58M. Already the plumbers have plunged a running stateside total through nine days of $260M, with $300M+ this weekend in sight.

Super Mario Bros grossed $9.4M yesterday at 4,343 locations, -13% from Wednesday’s $10.7M.


WoW! Deadline’s thinking 60% drop for Mario

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Fri Apr 14, 2023 11:19 am
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
60% drop sounds about right considering it was Easter and drips are big this year no matter how beloved a film is

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Fri Apr 14, 2023 12:16 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
It’s Thursday number is good. Would have to see a very small increase today to drop 60%


Fri Apr 14, 2023 1:05 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
It shouldn’t have a huge Friday increase, a lot of schools get the week after Easter off

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Fri Apr 14, 2023 2:30 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Thegun wrote:
It shouldn’t have a huge Friday increase, a lot of schools get the week after Easter off


The full week?

Sonic increased 110% the Friday after Easter last year.


Fri Apr 14, 2023 2:53 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Only 42% of schools are off. it should increase around 100% today.

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Fri Apr 14, 2023 3:57 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
$1.17M for Return of the King to bring its total over $379M. I think a full rerelease with imax, the week before Guardians, could have pushed it over $400M. Maybe they'll do something for the 25 year anniversary of each film.

It's also crazy to think that Star Wars was as old as Return of the King is now when they did the rerelease in 1997, which made over $100M.


Fri Apr 14, 2023 4:31 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
My fav re-release is still TLK in 2011 in 3D.

$94,242,001 domestic and $91,300,000 overseas. Was just a whole lot more than I was expecting.


Fri Apr 14, 2023 6:04 pm
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Post Re: April 14-16 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
$1.17M for Return of the King to bring its total over $379M. I think a full rerelease with imax, the week before Guardians, could have pushed it over $400M. Maybe they'll do something for the 25 year anniversary of each film.

It's also crazy to think that Star Wars was as old as Return of the King is now when they did the rerelease in 1997, which made over $100M.


This type of thing always blows my mind. I guess for me in 97 I was reading about Star Wars reissue’s monster January opening as a 19 year old whereas the original was released a year before I was born. ROTK just doesn’t seem as long ago looking back to my 20s lol.

Would have loved to see ROTK hit $400m. It deserves more.

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Fri Apr 14, 2023 9:16 pm
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