He's back! See $200M.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27EF723ZDmI

When does the fatigue set in? Like, how many more gunfights until it all comes to an end? And how different are the films really? I love the films, but they're all very similar and with no end in sight. Of course, the fourth film will still do well, but I don't see them increasing forever, and I think this one might show signs on that. I'll go with $160 million.

And is this one just called John Wick? That's all the title card says in the trailer. That would be so weird and stupid if so, to latch onto the trendy reboot technique of using the name of the first movie when this isn't a reboot.

They should carry on the Latin subtitles: John Wick: Chapter 4 - Perpetua

THAT TRAILER!!!

JW4 $500m+ WW
JW3 $321m WW
JW2 $171m WW
JW1 $86m WW

So apparently this movie is 3 hours long. That's .. alot. I think WOM will be very mixed because of it.

Looks like this will drop from the last one given the running time, being the 4th film and the competitive market for males.

I do hope i'm wrong though as it's a key draft pick for me

If the 3 hour The Batman can gross 370m, this can gross half that.

John Wick has about 5% the popularity and general awareness that any Batman movie has. Being three hours will hurt it. The type of people that see a John Wick movie are not the types to sit through three hours of anything, let alone gun-fu which can get very repetitive very quickly.

It's 38 minutes longer than the last film (2 hr 49 min) vs previous 2 hr 10 min.

It's not helpful but it's not Babylon (3 hr 9 min) or Avatar (3 hr 12 min). Once Upon A Time In Hollywood was 2 hr 40 min and if the movie is engaging enough run time is noticed less.

So will probably dent OW but if it's good won't be make or break.

I feel like OW it will be fine. But it could hurt the WOM/multiplier

Tracking is already $60-70M on this one so looks like its still going to be a major event.

https://deadline.com/2023/03/john-wick- ... /#comments

It'd be great if this outdid The Matrix Reloaded.

I've been concerned that it's been too long since the last movie, but if Creed III is headed for a massive over-performance despite even longer break between movies then this should be fine, especially since WOM has been steady with each movie. Fingers crossed for our biggest R-rated opening since Joker...

Check out these cool John Wick: Chapter 4 posters:

Those are great!

I'm so glad Keanu invested in the JW franchise otherwise the $37,686,805 total from the last Matrix movie would have really hit his career but it's just a blip. Crazy how 20 years ago around now a Matrix franchise film had the biggest 4 day opening of all time (and almost certainly would have topped Spider-man's OW record if not for the Thursday opening).

From Bill and Ted, Point Break, Speed, to Matrix to John Wick, Keanu's had a lot more staying power. If JW passes $100M (highly likely), he'll have a $100M+ movie in the 80s (Parenthood), 90s (Speed/Matrix), 00s (Matrix 2/3, Something's Got To Give), 10s (JW3, not counting TS4) and 20s (JW4*).

The JW box office progression is also really fun to watch:
-JW1 $14,415,922 / $43,037,835 (2014) - 33.5% of gross OW
-JW2 $30,436,123 / $92,029,184 (2017) - 33.1% of gross OW
-JW3 $56,818,067 / $171,016,727 (2019) - 33.2% of gross OW
-JW4 TBD (2023)

Most impressive about the franchise have been the legs. The fact that JW3 had a better multiplier than #1 and almost the same as #2 shows how the franchise has organically grown it's following.

I would be shocked to see a 3X multiplier here as it feels much more hyped (and pent up demand after 4 years).

Great post, O.

I think the marketing has been weak, otherwise I would have thought this was a slam dunk. I don’t see it opening more than the last and wouldn’t be surprised if it went lower.

These JW films tend to have built up a big fanbase so even if this doesn't increase by as big a % as the recent films did, it should still open in the 60-70m bracket. Also as O points out, the legs should be solid.

Hype for this one seems bigger than ever to me. I think it has a better chance to open to 70m than below the 3rd

Social media reactions are great.

I'm in the 70m+ group too.

Thanks! Go John Wick!!

I went with $75m in my March preview and wouldn't be surprised with more than that...

The early reviews are outstanding since the embargo was just lifted. Some have called it the best JW movie out of all 4. I thought #3 could have been the peak but seems like this one could very well top it.

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/john ... 235544987/

Ooh now I'm very excited.

The JW movies have almost doubled their box office each time. Absolutely not happening this time but would be the biggest WTF moment of the year if that happened.