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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68301
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 Nope Weekend Estimates
Nothing for Nope yet but...
Thor: Love and Thunder - $22,100,000 -53% Where the Crawdads Sing - $10,330,000 -40% Top Gun: Maverick - $10,000,113 -19% Elvis - $6,300,000 -21% Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank - $3,875,351 -29% Lightyear - $687,000 -51% Marcel the Shell with Shoes On - $846,950 +49%
That would be excellent if Maverick stayed above $10 million.
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Sun Jul 24, 2022 10:26 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35233 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Some great holds this weekend. Top Gun should hopefully keep holding like that the rest of the summer.
Crawdads also held really well for having a built in audience.
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Sun Jul 24, 2022 11:39 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68301
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Nope $44,000,000
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Sun Jul 24, 2022 11:50 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12194
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Lightyear making $50M+ OW and under $1M by its 6th weekend is truly pathetic. It's arguably the worst performance of the year considering all 4 TS films adjust to $435M+. This feels worse than the Alice 2 dropoff ($334M to $77M) since Alice rode the Avatar 3D wave. Looks like it will also miss The Good Dinosaur. Onward had Covid lockdowns it's second weekend so LY essentially is their worst box office performance ever. This weekend was its lowest drop of its run so far with 51% which tells you everything you need to know about its run.  Great hold by Elvis. Looking like Hanks biggest non-animated, DaVinci code film in 20 years and first $150M+ movie since Catch Me If You Can. Paws of Fury had a solid hold but such a low OW really not much to be impressed by. Thor may just pass $325M which is decent but with 5 years of inflation should have been able to beat Ragnorok. Great for Where the Crawdads Sing. Looks like it has a chance for a 4X multiplier for $70M. Nope's $44M is good but definitely would have liked more. Hopefully the completely empty August helps it have better than expected legs. Great hold for Minions at $17.71M (-34%). Just about to hit $300M. Where it ends will depend on the hit of Super Pets but $350M is great. NINTH weekend at $10M+ for TGM. Barely but unbelievable. 4th best 9th weekend ever behind Titanic, Avatar and Frozen. All three of those benefitted massively from winter holidays and TGM achieved this in the middle of the summer which makes it a box office run for the ages. TGM Looks good for #6 of all time with just $43.25M left to get there. Going to need some weekend increases and sub 10% drops to catch BP at #5. Canada has an August long weekend in some provinces and there's Labor Day coming up so hoping that helps. Likely will need a Veterans Day / awards season push otherwise. TGM also has now achieved a 5.02 multiplier. To put things into perspective on how unbelievable TGM's run is, no film opening to $78M+ has EVER achieved a 5X multiplier. Avatar did but opened to $77M over Christmas. TGM had an inflated holiday OW so on a regular weekend may have possibly even achieved a 6+ multiplier.
Last edited by O on Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:03 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68301
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Just to dot the Is and cross the Ts:
Minions: The Rise of Gru $17,710,000 -34% The Black Phone $3,450,000 -36% Jurassic World: Dominion $2,960,000 -43%
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Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:08 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12194
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
TGM $16.4M overseas (-14.6%). $1.283B total. Will be at $1.34B or so just from it's remaining domestic box office. Needs $166M more to get to $1.5B. 
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Sun Jul 24, 2022 12:27 pm |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
O wrote: Lightyear making $50M+ OW and under $1M by its 6th weekend is truly pathetic. It's arguably the worst performance of the year considering all 4 TS films adjust to $435M+. This feels worse than the Alice 2 dropoff ($334M to $77M) since Alice rode the Avatar 3D wave. Looks like it will also miss The Good Dinosaur. Onward had Covid lockdowns it's second weekend so LY essentially is their worst box office performance ever. This weekend was its lowest drop of its run so far with 51% which tells you everything you need to know about its run.  Great hold by Elvis. Looking like Hanks biggest non-animated, DaVinci code film in 20 years and first $150M+ movie since Catch Me If You Can. Paws of Fury had a solid hold but such a low OW really not much to be impressed by. Thor may just pass $325M which is decent but with 5 years of inflation should have been able to beat Ragnorok. Great for Where the Crawdads Sing. Looks like it has a chance for a 4X multiplier for $70M. Nope's $44M is good but definitely would have liked more. Hopefully the completely empty August helps it have better than expected legs. Great hold for Minions at $17.71M (-34%). Just about to hit $300M. Where it ends will depend on the hit of Super Pets but $350M is great. NINTH weekend at $10M+ for TGM. Barely but unbelievable. 4th best 9th weekend ever behind Titanic, Avatar and Frozen. All three of those benefitted massively from winter holidays and TGM achieved this in the middle of the summer which makes it a box office run for the ages. TGM Looks good for #6 of all time with just $43.25M left to get there. Going to need some weekend increases and sub 10% drops to catch BP at #5. Canada has an August long weekend in some provinces and there's Labor Day coming up so hoping that helps. Likely will need a Veterans Day / awards season push otherwise. TGM also has now achieved a 5.02 multiplier. To put things into perspective on how unbelievable TGM's run is, no film opening to $78M+ has EVER achieved a 5X multiplier. Avatar did but opened to $77M over Christmas. TGM had an inflated holiday OW so on a regular weekend may have possibly even achieved a 6+ multiplier. What about The Black Phone holding well against Nope? It may have a chance at 90m domestically against only a 18m budget.
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Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:15 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12194
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
bl1222 wrote: O wrote: Lightyear making $50M+ OW and under $1M by its 6th weekend is truly pathetic. It's arguably the worst performance of the year considering all 4 TS films adjust to $435M+. This feels worse than the Alice 2 dropoff ($334M to $77M) since Alice rode the Avatar 3D wave. Looks like it will also miss The Good Dinosaur. Onward had Covid lockdowns it's second weekend so LY essentially is their worst box office performance ever. This weekend was its lowest drop of its run so far with 51% which tells you everything you need to know about its run.  Great hold by Elvis. Looking like Hanks biggest non-animated, DaVinci code film in 20 years and first $150M+ movie since Catch Me If You Can. Paws of Fury had a solid hold but such a low OW really not much to be impressed by. Thor may just pass $325M which is decent but with 5 years of inflation should have been able to beat Ragnorok. Great for Where the Crawdads Sing. Looks like it has a chance for a 4X multiplier for $70M. Nope's $44M is good but definitely would have liked more. Hopefully the completely empty August helps it have better than expected legs. Great hold for Minions at $17.71M (-34%). Just about to hit $300M. Where it ends will depend on the hit of Super Pets but $350M is great. NINTH weekend at $10M+ for TGM. Barely but unbelievable. 4th best 9th weekend ever behind Titanic, Avatar and Frozen. All three of those benefitted massively from winter holidays and TGM achieved this in the middle of the summer which makes it a box office run for the ages. TGM Looks good for #6 of all time with just $43.25M left to get there. Going to need some weekend increases and sub 10% drops to catch BP at #5. Canada has an August long weekend in some provinces and there's Labor Day coming up so hoping that helps. Likely will need a Veterans Day / awards season push otherwise. TGM also has now achieved a 5.02 multiplier. To put things into perspective on how unbelievable TGM's run is, no film opening to $78M+ has EVER achieved a 5X multiplier. Avatar did but opened to $77M over Christmas. TGM had an inflated holiday OW so on a regular weekend may have possibly even achieved a 6+ multiplier. What about The Black Phone holding well against Nope? It may have a chance at 90m domestically against only a 18m budget. Missed that estimate! TBP held incredibly well against Nope. It's PTA dropped 28.9% this weekend so set for some good holds as long as it can hold onto theaters. $90M looks good!
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Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:28 pm |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm Posts: 6152 Location: New York
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
TGM actually has 3rd best 9th weekend behind the two Camerons as BOM foolishly counts Frozen first week in limited release for that chart.
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Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:43 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12194
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Jiffy wrote: TGM actually has 3rd best 9th weekend behind the two Camerons as BOM foolishly counts Frozen first week in limited release for that chart. Thanks for the correction. The limited releases skew all of those records. It's really insane that TGM is having an 80s type box office run in terms of legs with a 2010's type OW. Has been amazing to see a run like this which we've never seen before. To achieve this off of what should have been an inflated Memorial Weekend box office gross is even more crazy impressive.
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Sun Jul 24, 2022 2:03 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3220
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
I helped popularize the term ‘multiplier’ on boxoffice forums 20+ years ago, after Titanic and Sixth Sense (and soon after, MBFGW). TGM’s performance ranks up there with those leggy VHS/DVD era giants (shout out to Avatar as well). These are my favorite kind of boxoffice runs. 6+ weeks in and you’re still getting 8 digit weekend grosses. That a film like TGM has to deal with headwinds that ET, Raiders, ANH, etc did not have to face (home video, streaming, shorter attention spans, etc) makes these runs even more impressive. Wow.
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Sun Jul 24, 2022 5:21 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12194
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
That's awesome!!! Cool hearing your insights.
There's no way there won't be a TG3. TGM finished filming June 2019 right before Cruise turned 57 so will be interesting when they can film TG3.
MI 7/8 are due in 2023 and 2024. Cruise is supposed to head to space in 2024 so that should give him a film for 2025.
Could take 2026 to see a sequel. Cruise will be 64 by then but can't see Paramount would want to wait that long but given the pandemic interesting how almost a decade may pass between when the casts actually film installments #2 and #3.
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Sun Jul 24, 2022 7:48 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 35233 Location: Minnesota
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
I'm all for another Top Gun as long as the same cast is back. Especially Lewis Pullman. Maverick's run is hands down the most impressive of the year. Sorry Everything Everywhere. I don't think anything can top it either. I want it back on larger format screens at least once more so I can go a fourth time. This movie is really benefitting from repeat viewings. I know many people who have gone more than once. This girl at work has gone 4 times already and wants me to let her know if it does get any of the really big screens back because she'd go again. I hope it wins Best Picture. Won't happen but I'm at least wanting it to get nominated. Definitely my favorite movie of the year so far.
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Mon Jul 25, 2022 4:36 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32603 Location: the last free city
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
I'm very surprised it failed to top $50m OW. Hopefully it has good legs
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Mon Jul 25, 2022 8:30 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68301
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Rev wrote: I'm very surprised it failed to top $50m OW. Hopefully it has good legs Doubt it will with that "B" CinemaScore. It will barely clear $100 million.
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Mon Jul 25, 2022 8:39 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23327 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Algren wrote: Rev wrote: I'm very surprised it failed to top $50m OW. Hopefully it has good legs Doubt it will with that "B" CinemaScore. It will barely clear $100 million. "B" isnt terrible for a horror film but yeah I doubt it will get much higher than $100m - perhaps $110-20m at a stretch.
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Mon Jul 25, 2022 8:50 am |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm Posts: 11029
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Elvis has had a very good run. I wonder how a michael jackson film would do? Would it be to creepy to be successful?
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Mon Jul 25, 2022 10:30 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40470
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
neo_wolf wrote: Elvis has had a very good run. I wonder how a michael jackson film would do? Would it be to creepy to be successful? You can't really win with an MJ movie since calling him a pedo in it would piss off the hardcore fans, and ignoring it would lead the movie to get cancelled and bad reviews. I think the Beatles is one of the best bets.
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Mon Jul 25, 2022 10:35 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
I also think that a Fleetwood Mac movie about their Rumors era with all the dirty laundry would be a massive hit, but I don't know if the band would be willing to let an un-sanitized retelling of their history happen.
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Mon Jul 25, 2022 12:02 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40470
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
A Britney biopic could also be a good idea
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Mon Jul 25, 2022 12:10 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68301
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Algren wrote: Top Gun: Maverick - $10,000,113 -19%
That would be excellent if Maverick stayed above $10 million. It went up!!! Just wow. A 16.5% drop and still above $10m in the ninth weekend. 
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Mon Jul 25, 2022 10:05 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12194
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
PTA dropped just 13.06%. Needs a 7.24 multiplier to get to $700M.
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Tue Jul 26, 2022 12:47 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68301
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Simply amazing.
I'm literally only rooting for Americana at the box office now (Maverick and Elvis). Their legs are incredible. But I'm not eyeing $700 million for Maverick. Not that I wouldn't love it to get there, but expecting or hoping for it will lead to disappointment if it doesn't get there. I think $650 million is an excellent milestone, and of course it will get there. At this stage it's not about the final figure. It has already achieved heights I did not know were possible. It's just great to see those weekly holds both in revenue and theatres retained.
As for Elvis, it's going to surpass easily Walk the Line and The Bodyguard. Next up is Straight Outta Compton, which unfortunately it won't get close to. Not bad, though, for a $30 million opener to rest in the top five music/music biopics.
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Tue Jul 26, 2022 1:19 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23327 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Elvis and Top Gun Maverick are two films that are just bloody good. Everyone I know who have seen them (and many have seen TGM) just rave about them.
A friend who didn't love TGM on first viewing, went to see it a second time because I raved about it and then ended up loving it.
I know great films do not always get the box office they deserve - but I'm glad it's happening here.
TGM should at least get to $680m which is insane. Elvis - $145m or so - fantastic. To top it off - The Black Phone, Crawdads, Nope (and likely Bullet Train) will all rake in good coin for non franchise adult films - hopefully helping to reverse the trend of "straight to streaming" for non blockbuster films.
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Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:20 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32603 Location: the last free city
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 Re: Nope Weekend Estimates
Algren wrote: Algren wrote: Top Gun: Maverick - $10,000,113 -19%
That would be excellent if Maverick stayed above $10 million. It went up!!! Just wow. A 16.5% drop and still above $10m in the ninth weekend.  It's going to drop less than 20% from last monday (7/18) and make it 60 DAYS ABOVE $1 MILLION 
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Tue Jul 26, 2022 9:34 am |
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