Where the Crawdads Sing- 26m
Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank 14m

Thor- -59%
Minions- -45%


WTCS could overperform given the books popularity and the underserved demo of female counterprogramming, but a mid 20s debut looks safe.

Paws of Fury looks bad but I think it has enough appeal for kids that it can get a low teens debut.

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank- 20m
Where the Crawdads Sing- 16m

Thor- -60%
Minions- -40%

The Crawdads book is huge and it's back at #1 on the bestseller list with the release of the movie. Will be interesting to see how that translates to the box office. I've been underwhelmed by the advertising by Sony. I don't think they've been pushing it hard enough. But maybe it will sell itself.



https://www.indiewire.com/2022/07/where ... 234738821/

Crawdads seems like a slow burner more than a big opener. With the books popularity, it could do 20M+, but I think it will open lower and last a while.

People seem to be low on Paws of Fury. Every time I've seen the trailer in the theater the audience eats it up. Minions will limit it, but I would not be surprised if it opened over 20M.

I don't see a huge opening weekend for Crawdads but do think it's doing over 20 Million. I just don't know why more fans of the book wouldn't come out right away. Should be leggy even if I think reviews will be on the negative side (I'm predicting Rotten Tomatoes to be in the 40's). Seems like a movie audiences will like more than critics.

I think I’ve seen Crawdads trailer playing in theaters once that I remember.
PAWS though too freaking many times

Obviously its a family film that won't be presales heavy, but the theater nearest me has sold no tickets for Paws of Fury, which seems bad. The Bad Guys even had sold may at this point before release.

Lets make a friendly wager on Paws & Crawdads. Which will take the #1 spot.
Winner gets to put anything they want on the loser's signature

you in?

Neither Thor will be number one you silly goose

I meant with just those 2 films lol Paws vs Craws

Crawdads is starting to pick steam at some of the Wed/Thu preview screenings in my area - nothing crazy, but maybe somewhere between where Elvis and Black Phone were around this time? My guess is that it will perform like a lot of adaptations of bestsellers with some immediate frontloading due to the book fans rushing out quickly, but after the 2nd weekend and maybe 3rd weekend drops it could level out and linger in multiplexes through August.

Where the Crawdads Sing - $22 million
Paws of Fury - $8 million
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris - $2.3 million
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On - $1.8 million

Thor Love and Thunder -62%
Minions: Rise of Gru -41%
Top Gun: Maverick -25%
Elvis -31%

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris has sold more tickets around me than Paws of Fury. Thinking a big bomb for Paws of Fury.

Sure I'll take this.

Winner takes over losers signature for a month (July 18th to Aug 17th)

Despite a more front loaded opening day, Thor recovered enough throughout the opening weekend to have a slightly higher OD/OW ratio than Dr Strange. So I think a catastrophic drop of more than 67% is off the table. But 65% is still on the table. Hoping for 61-62%.

Hopefully low 60% or best high 50%

Paws of Fury has sold 0 tickets for Thursday and Friday here. Mrs. Harris has sold 2. The only opener selling tickets is Crawdads which seems to be doing pretty solid. But with the reviews I don't know how many people that didn't read the book are going to care.

The only one that has warning signs, in my opinion, is Where the Crawdads Sing. It has rotten reviews (38%), and it's not a hugely popular book like Harry Potter. Being a "best seller" means nothing, people have got to actually like it as well, not just buy it. The poster looks about as boring as a book cover, which I guess is what they were aiming for but this is a movie! It needed to be spruced up. And it's only pre-selling at "pretty solid" levels. That spells danger, imo. The main avenue of its sales surely would be from fans of the book, which means pre-sales, and if it isn't firing on all cylinders in that regard I just don't see how it's going to make up the numbers.

As for the other two; firstly, it should have just been called Paws of Fury. None of this Legend of Hank shit. But this will do fine. Nobody is expecting huge numbers for it. If it does $8 million or $16 million, nobody's going to scream disaster. It's a typical non-Pixar, non-Disney, non-DreamWorks CG animated flick for kids. Nobody's gagging to see this so much that they need to reserve a seat. Walk-up business as the new family-friendly option will be adequate. When the family go to see Thor but mom and daughter actually aren't that into superheroes, Hank will take care of them for a couple of hours.

Mojo still says Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris is opening limited, so I'm not sure what to expect. It doesn't scream weekend viewing to me.

Not looking good for my bet with Zwackerm

Reviews aren't good but many people love the book. Which is why it's so popular. Everyone I know that's read it has loved it.

Crawdads has some hype, Taylor Swift did a song for it after all, but I feel like its been adapted too soon. Reminds me of The Kite Runner. So while this version could play decently with a double digit opening day, the remake that comes out in 20 years will do mega business.

I'm sure many people do love the book. Just not everybody that bought the book will love it. That's kind of all I meant. It's all fractions. Then out of all the people that did love the book, how many of those are guaranteed ticket buyers to the movie? Not all of them. Maybe not even half. I don't know. But some will be book people, not movie people. Some will be 5th and 6th weekend people, not opening weekenders. And so on and so forth. You get my point. And adding the reviews to the formula will only make matters worse. I cannot see the "book is better than the movie" brigade showing up for a 40% on Rotten Tomatoes.

thx Algren for giving me hope again #PAWSoverCrawdads

Ehh, bestseller adaptations usually come pretty quick - if you look at the Wikipedia list of bestsellers, you'll find a lot of books that were made into successful movies within five, even 1-2 years of when they were published. Always good to strike when the iron is hot. Preferably they should also make a good movie out of it, although the sense I'm getting is that this is not easy material to make into a great movie anyhow.

The book is not high art, it is a relatively satisfying romance beach read with a murder mystery subplot. But it is mostly a romance which is hard to make into a non cliche cheesy movie