Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore- 42m
Father Stu- 8m 3 day/11m 5 day

Sonic -60%
Ambulance -40%

Continued mixed reviews for Beasts will cause another big drop, though I don't think the floor for the franchise is sub 40m yet.

Father Stu is a wild card as a Christian movie but it's rated R. But it also has Wahlberg and Gibson (who has credibility among Christians as being behind Passion which is still a highly regarded film in the genre) that I think it can reach double digits in 5 days over Easter

Fantastic Beasts was looking decent a few weeks ago.

Yet then the bad reviews came in.

And now Ezra has been arrested.

Yikes! WB really is its own worst enemy.

I think this will be a $40.0000001M type of 'trying to save-face' opening. Yet it also wouldn't surprised me to just see it bottom-out ala Dark Phoenix.


The Father Stu trailer is unintentionally hilarious. Every word Mel said had me cracking up when they showed it before Uncharted. Yet I don't think its audience will care about that. So should do decently even with the R rating.

I think it could go either way. I'm going go with $41m opening. If it overperforms then I think people are just hungry for Wizarding films. If it flops then... lol

I haven't seen practically any advertising for Father Stu - I've been average 1-2 theater visits a week this this year and I have never once seen the trailer before any movie. Maybe they're just targeting religious audiences, but the R rating is gonna mess with that. I'm thinking $5M 3-day/$7M 5-day? Something in that range.

Really unsure of if Fantastic Beasts is gonna go over/under Morbius's OW. There has been so much advertising for that (the trailers have played before almost every movie I've seen, even The Contractor where it was inexplicably the only trailer before that movie), but I know so many Potter fans and just don't sense any excitement from them. I think the last movie really killed the franchise's moment, and the 3.5 year wait that has felt like a decade won't help matters, not to mention all the bad juju surrounding the movie. Got a feeling it's gonna be up to international audiences to help it break even.

I think I'm most excited to see how Everything Everywhere All At once holds up. Looking at my local theaters it looks like it'll be expanding even more next week, and WOM is off the charts (it went up from 8.9 to 9.0 on IMDB yesterday!!). A24 really might have a smash on their hands.

FB3 will go under Morbius.

It’s gonna be low because of Easter, I’m thinking 40 at best, maybe mid 30.

From BOG:

#FantasticBeasts sequel kicked off its global #boxoffice run with $58M this wknd from 22 intl mkts. Top openings:

China $10M
Germany $9.4M
Japan $8.6M
UK $8M
Australia $3.9M
Spain $3.1M

That UK number is SIGNIFICANTLY down from the last one's $15,809,761, almost 50%.

The UK market is quite close to domestic so may be a bad sign if its home country is rejecting it. I don't think domestic will see quite as bad a drop but dropping under $40M is not impossible. The holiday weekend will likely save it.

Is there a franchise more botched than this? Probably not. There's no reason with competent people at the helm these should not be 225m+ domestic 800m WW grossers per picture. That dang second movie had to be so bad ugh!

presales are not bad. Looks more like 50m opener. But its final week could crater and we see numbers worse than what we can project today. May be WB should look at HP animated series for HBO Max before making another movie in potter verse.

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore- 43m
Father Stu- 9m 3 day/12m 5 day

Well, it's also a pretty bad time to open overseas. China and South Korea are being hampered by COVID. No release in Russia. And the general exchange rates have become quite unfavorable.

OS/WW totals are going to be lackluster for a while. I figure studios are plenty aware though and are taking this into account for lowered earnings right now.

Possibly the Narnia franchise:

#1 $66M/$291,710,957 - In Dec.
#2 $55M/$141,621,490 - In May.
#3 $24M OW/$104,386,950 - Back in Dec.

It's hard to make people care about prequel stuff like Dumbledore's origins imo when you know what's going to happen. One of the several reasons Lucas did an underrated job with Star Wars prequels.

It's still tracking at over/under 50m. 62m for the last film was already so low maybe there wasn't much lower to go.

Overseas is a bigger issue. With that start I don't see how it does much more than 400m WW, which is a problem for a film that cost 185-200m. Probably needs at least 600m WW to break even which isn't happening.

Father Stu 550k Tuesday previews

Suggests a solid double digit total over 5 days, which should propel it to 25mish total.

1.55 million Wednesday

Presales for FB in my area look rough. Normal screenings are empty and the 9pm IMAX I'm going to is not even 1/4 full.

I'm seeing it sunday since I'm seeing it after easter dinner with my family, and there's no real rush factor at this point. Not saying it will do well but I think it will have a decent multiple this weekend at least

Looks like Easter was softer than expected. Everything coming in slightly under estimates