Author |
Message |
bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
Trimming my prediction of Dune to $35M OW ($82M final total)
Ron's Gone Wrong OW - $4M
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:49 am |
|
|
Steve
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:09 pm Posts: 1814
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
O wrote: Anything over $30M is a win IMO for Dune. I think following 3 $50M+ OW's just has risen expectations too high already. I agree with this. Of course I’m hoping it does well (huge fan of Villeneuve, big fan of Chalamet and the book), but honestly not expecting it to. Since the first trailer I’ve thought this would be a tough sell and more likely to bomb than break out. Would love to be proven wrong but I’m thinking between $20m and $30m OW.
_________________ how am I not myself?
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:06 pm |
|
|
Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6196
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
I am thinking 5m previews and mid to late 30's OW. Very Presales driven OW for Dune.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:30 pm |
|
|
zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20418 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
Industry besides WB is expecting 50m, while WB is publicly hoping for 30-35m. Hopefully it can trend up and have good WOM that this "has to be seen on the biggest screen possible"
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:56 pm |
|
|
publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18932 Location: San Diego
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
At this point an opening above GvK's 3-day would be a win. WB sacrificing their slate and all the Ls they're taking hopefully ensures this never happens again.
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:02 pm |
|
|
Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23909 Location: Classified
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
Dune is releasing at 6 on HBO, likely ending any chance of me (and many others) waiting till the weekend to see it in theaters.
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:57 pm |
|
|
Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6161 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
I've done my part and convinced seven friends to all go together in IMAX. That's like $150 for the box office.
Please don't flop.
*prayer circle*
_________________ .
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:05 pm |
|
|
publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18932 Location: San Diego
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
The % for premium screens should be very high. The IMAX 6:00 I'm going to is pretty full while all the regular screens have like 3 seats sold.
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:13 pm |
|
|
Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6196
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
its walkups so far look better than Bond couple of weeks ago. May be 5.5m previews and OW is low 40s could happen. Let us see how the weekend goes.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:24 pm |
|
|
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
I wonder how will be WoM on this one. It's a very long movie with elaborate dialogues and very little action. I don't think that helped BR2049 so we will see.
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:31 pm |
|
|
publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18932 Location: San Diego
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
Keyser Söze wrote: its walkups so far look better than Bond couple of weeks ago. May be 5.5m previews and OW is low 40s could happen. Let us see how the weekend goes. 40m would be very good, hope it happens. Was thinking walkups would be weak with the early premiere on Max
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:38 pm |
|
|
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
Generally the walk-ups for these simultaneous releases are weak over weekend. The fans who want to see the movie rush over Thursday and Friday.
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:40 pm |
|
|
Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6196
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote: Generally the walk-ups for these simultaneous releases are weak over weekend. The fans who want to see the movie rush over Thursday and Friday. fans reserve tickets ahead of time. That is why it had huge day 1(ahead of everything this year barring 2 MCU movies BW and SC. it finished close to SC Day 1). Walkups being good today suggests casual audience will show up. What I could see of Saturday PS also looks good. Being in fall, Saturday number will be good. It will definitely increase minus previews(i am expecting in 10-15%). Of course Sunday drop wont be great.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:46 pm |
|
|
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
Keyser I don't think we should compare this to MCU movies. I do agree being a known IP but an origins sci-fi would get a lot more casual audience. I believe GvK would be the right comparison for this.
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:08 pm |
|
|
publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18932 Location: San Diego
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
I got surveyed on Dune getting out of the theater lol
|
Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:54 pm |
|
|
Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6196
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
Previews should end up tad over 5m. Hopefully OW is over 40m. Let us see how things go tomorrow.
That said previews did taper off earlier than what I thought.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
|
Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:16 am |
|
|
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
publicenemy#1 wrote: I got surveyed on Dune getting out of the theater lol You see how Cinemascore are biased now
|
Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:30 am |
|
|
Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm Posts: 1874
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
Keyser Söze wrote: Previews should end up tad over 5m. Hopefully OW is over 40m. Let us see how things go tomorrow.
That said previews did taper off earlier than what I thought. That'd be a mere 25% more than Suicide Squad...pretty disappointing
|
Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:53 am |
|
|
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
|
Re: October 22-24 predictions
That would BE 25% MORE than Suicide Squad... It's an achievement.
|
Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:25 am |
|
|