Author |
Message |
zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20415 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
|
Oct 8-10 Predictions (Shaken not stirred!)
No Time To Die- 75m Seems like a crowdpleaser, and a significant improvement over Spectre. Thinking it can outdo it
|
Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:47 pm |
|
|
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11603
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions
Momentum helps the box office and moviegoers coming back for Shang Chi, got more comfortable to see Venom, so that should help Bond.
At the same time, 6 years is a LONG time between Bond Movies. It's either going to supercharge demand or feel dated. I'm leaning toward supercharge so let's go with $72 M.
|
Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:57 pm |
|
|
publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18931 Location: San Diego
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions
66m. Hoping it does more.
|
Fri Oct 01, 2021 1:04 pm |
|
|
Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6196
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions
I am hoping for 80m. Let us see how things go next week. Its PS is good in big markets but otherwise its slow. But I expect major action will happen only close to release. But this being Craig's final movie will be a draw.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
|
Fri Oct 01, 2021 1:53 pm |
|
|
O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11603
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions
UK opening day was 14 percent ahead of Spectre (which launched on a Monday) and 30 percent behind Skyfall.
This isn't a scientific extrapolation but if this new one follows that pattern domestically its opening day will be either: 14% above $27,434,579 (Spectre) or 30% less $32,704,077 (Skyfall) it gives a range of:
$22.90 M - 31.28 M
Let's take the average and say that's what Bond's opening day is at $27.09 M.
Quantum of Solace's opening day was $27,007,026 so feel like that range feels right.
|
Fri Oct 01, 2021 2:35 pm |
|
|
Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6196
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions
UK opening day is compared with 4PM release for Spectre. Not good comp. it is down but BO is still far from normal over there. Based on how Venom 2 is doing, US BO is closer to norm. I am expecting bigger OW than Spectre as its the final Craig movie and reviews are good.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
|
Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:37 pm |
|
|
MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22728 Location: Melbourne Australia
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions
Always expected a larger opening and total for the final Craig Bond (as long as quality was solid). This was pre covid but I think it can make up for any loss by sheer event status as there is a lot of pent up demand. I can see it being up about 10-15% up overall and scout 5% up in OW so somewhere between $75 and $80m ow.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
|
Fri Oct 01, 2021 8:21 pm |
|
|
zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20415 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions
Apparently advance ticket sales are out pacing F9 and Venom.
Trying to rein in expectations but that has to be amazing right?
|
Wed Oct 06, 2021 10:57 am |
|
|
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions
Indeed that's amazing. So back to back $90m opener in October. Reminds me of DS's situation a year earlier in Japan.
|
Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:19 am |
|
|
Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions
Apparently there are early access screenings tonight? Ours is nearly sold out.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
|
Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:32 pm |
|
|
Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23903 Location: Classified
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote: Apparently there are early access screenings tonight? Ours is nearly sold out. Good catch! I already made plans for today but might still be able to catch the 10:40 screening.
|
Wed Oct 06, 2021 2:07 pm |
|
|
MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22728 Location: Melbourne Australia
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions (Shaken not stirred!)
It's looking good that it's not going to disappoint - i.e. sub $70m. Even better - it's looking to flirt with $85m or more.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
|
Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:21 am |
|
|
zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20415 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions (Shaken not stirred!)
I wonder if we'll get numbers for the wednesday previews.
|
Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:43 am |
|
|
Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions (Shaken not stirred!)
zwackerm wrote: I wonder if we'll get numbers for the wednesday previews. From what I read on HSX, they will be rolled into Thursday.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
|
Thu Oct 07, 2021 6:10 pm |
|
|
Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6196
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions (Shaken not stirred!)
It has had shockingly poor sales over past few days. I am thinking around 6m previews including early shows yesterday and OW below spectre at this point.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
|
Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:37 pm |
|
|
bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions (Shaken not stirred!)
63m for NTTD for my prediction
|
Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:46 pm |
|
|
publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18931 Location: San Diego
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions (Shaken not stirred!)
Lol I knew NTTD would not do over the MCU movies. Hopefully it still manages high 60s or low 70s.
|
Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:53 pm |
|
|
zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20415 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions (Shaken not stirred!)
It's gotta at least beat Spectre.
|
Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:52 am |
|
|
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions (Shaken not stirred!)
Looks like out-opening Spectre is not yet certain but it will be closer regardless.
|
Fri Oct 08, 2021 9:03 am |
|
|
Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions (Shaken not stirred!)
First I was surprised this was in IMAX, now I'm surprised to see how well it's doing in the format. Very strong matinee shows.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
|
Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:11 pm |
|
|
publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18931 Location: San Diego
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions (Shaken not stirred!)
Why wouldn't a Bond movie be in Imax...?
|
Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:58 pm |
|
|
Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
|
Re: Oct 8-10 Predictions (Shaken not stirred!)
Yeah what's so surprising in Bond movie releasing over IMAX. Shittier movies get IMAX release these days.
|
Fri Oct 08, 2021 6:59 pm |
|
|