LOL Les Mis had 7000+ performances. By your logic Into the Woods should only make 20 million total. Phantom of the Opera was seen by even more, and the film had great reviews/performances (3 Golden Globe nominations) and only made 52 million.

Please stop comparing stage productions to film productions. They are completely different appeal wise.

I said that Les Mis was long running and Into the Woods was not. I just said it ran considerable longer than Sweeney Todd.

The Phantom of the Opera disappointed because of its release pattern. And it received negative reviews from critics. It is certainly possible Into the Woods will get negative reviews too. But films like Nine and The Phantom of the Opera are the exceptions, not the rules, so I would say it is unlikely.

100% with an 8/10 at 5 reviews.

Looks like it won't have a splat.

Down to 78% and a 6.7 after 9 reviews.

well, with no Interview at the biggest theater chains this is looking good for a big opening day. Doubt Unbroken and The Gambler will pull big numbers.

Unless the threats scare people from going to the movies, period.

It still won't be a splat. All a 78% means is it definitely won't win best picture and almost certainly won't be nominated, which is what most reasonable people expected.

Thegun, do you not want this film to be good?

Do you want this film to be good?

Yes. Of course.

I think it will do 13 million on Christmas followed by a 35 million OW for a 48 million 4 day, which should be enough for 150 million total

I say: 43 million [four-day]/144 million

So this might actually be the biggest movie this XMAS ? How fucking boring. I barely feel any buzz for this and it's definitely nowhere near Les Mis two years ago.

Anyways, with how grim this holiday is looking I'm not expecting more than Enchanted numbers for now.

Well then why can't thegun want it to not be good?

Who gives a shit?

Because he said he loved the musical and was excited for it. But then he keeps saying he thinks it will be bad.

Enchanted numbers would be fine and would likely lead to 150 million total with families available every day until Jan 6th. Especially if it has good WOM and is leggy after that. Les Mis was not much bigger than Enchanted was, especially in admissions.

And The Interview was not going to out gross this regardless

No I didn't. I said it could be, and nothing has gotten me excited about it. I wouldn't mind a good film at all.

Thank you for clarifying.

Up to 80% now. My final prediction is 70%.

I wonder who voted for Annie.

chippy

It was me, actually!

I could have guessed that, actually. He's doing the same with Blackhat. Anything to be different.

Umm... ok?

Up to 82%!

Unless it gets major Oscar noms (which looks unlikely) this club won't happen with that low theater count. 150 million probably won't happen. Heck, there is even a chance for sub 100 million.

Oh Zwackerm, it failing to hit 100 was always more likely than 180+. A very unrealistic prediction. But I wouldn't start crying and jumping ship yet. It's not like les mis opened in 4000 theaters. It was 2800, and anyone that wants to see it still can. It's tc is not surprising at all considering the budget and limited marketing push. It'll be a very solid hit none the less, and give access to great but lesser known musical.

I have been seeing spots non stop on ABC. I doubt the marketing was low budget.

That is interesting that Les Mis was sub 3000 too.

But still, it would help to be in more theaters. But I still think if this were to somehow miss 100 million, something will have gone seriously wrong. The marketing has made this look exactly like one of Disney's bigger budget fairy tales.