First of all, I think Arrested Development is screwed. Let me emphasize that despite some growing pains, I thought the season worked pretty damn well and I think a lot if the initial boo-birds will eventually come around on it once the heat dies down. Nevertheless, the result has been so very divisive, and the puzzle box structure isn't inviting for voters. Further, the actors have little screentime, hurting their case. Most importantly, I still have serious doubts about the academy members willingness to immediately embrace online programming--people expecting big things for House of Cards will, I think, be in shock when it barely makes a dent.

Secondly, Fox and/or Jake Johnson is stupid. The once-intolerable New Gitl blossomed this year because Johnson's Nick took center stage with ample screen time to match. He's great, perhaps the funniest character on tv these last few months, and could have been competitive in the perennially weak lead actor category. Instead he goes supporting. Have fun watching the Emmys at home, buddy.

Wait, what are you talking about? Jake Johnson is submitting himself as lead for the Emmys.

http://www.goldderby.com/news/4211/jake ... 56733.html

Holy crap I got bad info! He's a good bet to get in, then, unless the ratings drop turns Emmy off the show altogether

Do you think anything will be able to unseat Modern Family? I just feel like it's not going to win a fourth year in a row, even though this was the best season since the first. I still can't figure out what would win instead, though. It should be New Girl or Happy Endings, obviously, but HE won't be nominated and New Girl isn't a lock to be.

I absolutely think modern family will win. Embarrassing for the Academy, but that's the way it's gonna be.

The only dark horse that I take seriously is 30 Rock for a farewell prize. It was an emmy favorite for years, and the final season was as good as any its ever done. It'll have great tapes. That kind of thing used to happen, like when everybody loves Raymond won its last season out of nowhere. But it was a half season that ended months ago, at a ratings nadir. Do probably not going to happen.

But still if there's one show that the middle of the road Emmy voters who keep picking modern family would defect to, 30 Rock makes the most sense. They've voted for it before.

I'm open to being convinced that Big Bang can win, if anyone wants to make the case. Super edgy stuff like girls and Louie--never gonna happen

I expect pretty much the same lineup of best drama from last year except Boardwalk Empire to maybe be replaced by House of Cards or... Newsroom .

Jeff Daniels and Kevin Spacey pushing out Michael C. Hall and Hugh Bonneville on the actor lineup. Its too bad the true best performance by Aden Young in Rectify won't get in because of lack of name recognition.

New Girl skews too young to win, and is too fluffy and insubstantial. It could never take the
big prize .

I think The Big Bang Theory has a strong chance to win. It's fashionable to hate on it because it's so popular, but it does what it aims to do well.

I think the Internet would explode if Girls won a Best Comedy Emmy. I'd remove myself from access to technology for weeks so I wouldn't have to read the endless discourse that show always inspires.

The Big Bang Theory is not a great show. It is, however the most popular show on TV. Its moderate quality is also, frankly, probably better than Modern Family these days. So a win might be a possible. More importantly, a win for Big Bang is oddly desirable since its minor charms are a better choice than the lousy default option of modern family

What about Drama? I'm thinking

Breaking Bad
House of Cards
Mad Men
Game of Thrones
Downton Abbey
Homeland

Will the Homeland-actors sweep the lead categories again? I kinda don't think so. It might be Cranston's time again at the Emmys.

No, I fear Homeland may sweep series, actor and actress again. The Emmys are always a few years behind the curve when something they loved turns to shit. Just like Modern Family! Someone in the mail room must not be delivering the memos.

And Danes and Lewis have killer tapes, like Q&A, from the first 4-5 episodes of the season. Those are some tough to beat tapes. Which is a shame because Danes in particular was just awful at the seasons end, her manic, twitchy histrionics having transformed into unsympathetic self parody. Probably more the fault of the writing, but either way, that performance became completely unmoored

My most hoped for nomination is Monica Potter in Drama Supporting Actress for Parenthood.

I can't bang this drum enough that I don't like Big Bang, but if it's ever going to win the award, this year will be the year. Still a longshot.

New Girl isn't popular enough to win. Probably won't even be nominated. A bipolar start in Season 1 didn't help things either before they finally hit their stride.

In a just world, Parenthood walks away with 3-4 acting nominations

Veep should win for comedy.

It's kind of weird how the Emmy voters put up these blinders to certain shows like Parenthood and Happy Endings. Is there a TV Blackball List or something where once you're on it, you're fucked forever?

OMG you like Parenthood too? I thought you didn't.

But I agree. Peter Krause and Mae Whitman have been worthy of nominations every year, in addition to Potter's standout work this season.

My boy Dax Shepard too

I binged about a month and a half ago on every episode. First I've watched it since the initial airing of the pilot, which I did not like at the time.

Will House of Cards and Arrested Development be players this year? Or are we still hazing Netflix?

I don't see how at least Kevin Spacey doesn't score a nod.

I hope Bobby Cannavale is recognized for Boardwalk Empire.

House of Cards will get a solid amount of noms. I would even say Corey Stoll is just as likely to get nominated as Spacey which means both will get nominated.

Arrested Development winning the Emmy for BEst comedy would be perfect.

Will Louie's season 3 be eligible? That should be a major player on the comedy side.

I think for comedy:
Louie
30 Rock
Modern Family
Veep
Arrested Development

I think Louis C.K. will take actor, with Dreyfus taking actress.

I think Game of Thrones wins the emmy prize this year. This season has been the best so far and its dark tone (like 24 did in season 5) should help it to take the big prize. Could also see several actors score nods like Dance, Riggs (guest actor perhaps), Emilla Clark could get a nod too.