That would have worked out if TA had not broken out, and I did eat my crow yo.

DonNiam-TheStingray....

You know what, dude.... your prediction in the $180M range is possible, but I'd call it extremely conservative.

TDK adjusted for inflation is $588M; that makes its OW adjusted at $174M. It made $6.3M from IMAX in 94 theaters. TDKR has 3.5x this amount of IMAX theaters and the demand will be very high. TDKR will make AT LEAST $10M more than TDK thanks to IMAX (and probably more like 15-20). We're already at $184M. Add in the fact that anticipation for TDKR is much greater than it was for TDK and it will be more frontloaded than TDK (meaning more business in the OW).

So any prediction below $180M is completely ridiculous, and I'd say any prediction in the 180-190 range is extremely improbable.

Bottom line, even if you want to remain very conservative, you should probably up your prediction in the 190s.

http://pinterest.com/pin/268667933991015963/

That's BOBuzz. Tracking at 191.4M, about in line with MTC and RS (both mid-to-high 180s about 3 weeks back).

BOBuzz has shown in the past that they don't seem to be accounting for premium formats (IMAX/3D/etc.). If that 191.4M is converted to 2D tickets only, we get an approximate 24.5M tickets.

If we take that 24.5M figure, assume a 20M IMAX OW, and ~2M from other premium formats, we're at a 202.0M number for the weekend. Give it another week and that figure should jump up a little more into the 210s

How often is BOBuzz on the mark?

Dunno, they "update" their so-called "tracking" numbers like every other day for every film. Off the top of my head, their final number for Avengers nailed it if 3D/IMAX are not included

That's a good sign, then.

I'm still predicting a $185M OW, but I would love to be proven wrong.

Well my prediction is not in the 180 range, its in the high 180s, so closer to the 190 range. And I cant really see how the second biggest opening weekend of all time can be dubbed extremely conservative.

I just hope for the movie that Bane's endgame is better than Joker's in TDK, which quite frankly was laughable. And I don't mean turning Harvey Dent to the dark side.

You got a ferry full of people who are all so noble that all of them are willing to sacrifice their own lives in order not to kill a bunch of strangers on another ferry. Talk about the dumbest set ups of all dumb set ups. Moreover, you got the other ferry with a bunch of criminals who are also willing to sacrifice themselves to save the citizens of Gotham. The scene at the end with Deboo acting like Jesus fucking Christ was cringe-worthy. Talk about a heavy-handed, down your throat message. If Nolan wanted to be real bad ass and had some balls, that scene would've ended after 10 seconds with a ferry blowing the fuck up. And even then, what would that have proved? That people have a natural instinct to survive? No shit! At least it would've been realistic and added some shock value to the proceedings. But yeah, the fact that both ferries survived made it feel like a kids movie, preaching that all people are innately good. B**ch please...

So, yeah hopefully Bane's master plan is more elaborate and better executed.

His plan is also absurdly Machiavellian and detailed, requiring not only exacting preparation on his part, but also a psychic ability to predict down to the last gesture how other people will behave and respond. He is similar in this way to Jigsaw in the Saw franchise. So much would have changed, for example, had the one anger-management cop not been left alone in the room with the Joker at the police station. His entire plan requires this cop to be there, to lose his temper, etc.

There's also the bit where no one notices or cares a bus pulls out of the destroyed front of the bank.

Yes, and I would call all these things flawed and sloppy screenwriting.

Uh, that adds up to $215 million.

72 mins of film will fill up entire real IMAX screens

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/movie ... -imax.html
imax


vs regular


i'm glad that it looks like, while real IMAX will be amazing in terms of clarity and detail, Nolan based on this example framed the imax images so not much is lost when cutting for regular theaters; with this example the image is the same except batman's and the cop's hand cut off in 35mm

I find it amusing that Nolan says he didn't go with 3D, because he thought it didn't add much to the film; yet he went with IMAX. Which doesn't add much either. Talk about pretending artistic modesty.

^don't know if you've ever been to a real 15/70mm imax--but imax adds a whole lot

especially when used properly--TDK, MI: Ghost Protocool

I find the changing aspect ratio annoying.

WOW.... the latest trailer is playing on tv...

They are really going HARD.

I signed an NDA that expires Tuesday. But...

What do you guys think will be TDKR's cinemascore rating? I don't think it will match Avengers' "A+". More like "A".

A+ fo sho

Fixed

Well, apparently an "A+" is really rare. Avatar got "A", and that movie had incredible legs.

Screw Cinemascore. It's terribly inaccurate and a poor gauge of the actual WOM of a film. Whether it's an A or A+ won't make a difference in terms of the film's legs. With that said, I hope for an A+, but we'll see.

TDK also got an A. So did BB. I would consider that the ceiling for a dark Batman movie. Avengers had the perfect tone to it. A true crowd pleaser with lots of great humor.