Yes, some will dislike TDKR. Just as some disliked BB and TDK.

MFing TANKS in Gotham! Nolan put TANKS in the movie .

This is going to OWN ALL OF US SO HARD







Trust Nolan. This is going to BLOW us away, because we know so little about it, and because we've seen so little of the film. Every tiny new bit of footage we see from the TV spots is just jaw dropping.



TANKS!

Everything you said, + tanks = 700M+ domestic fo sho



Great analysis, I agree.

Just to add with the following scenario:

if we low-ball, and Rises plays in an estimated 3800 locations at midnight (same as Potter DH2), then take an average ticket price of $9, and an average of 250 seats per theater combined with an average of 4 midnight shows per theater, we get almost 35M in midnights already, and those are very conservative figures.

I'm thinking the floor for midnights will be around 35M, with the realistic ceiling being around 50M.

If theater count for midnight rises (pun intended) to around 4,000, and we on average get say 5 midnight showings per theater instead of 4, that then brings us a midnight number of around 45M.

Many theaters in the Toronto area for example already list 2-3 midnight shows at regular theaters, and 3-4 midnight shows at theaters that include IMAX screens. This is with 5 WEEKS to go! Also looking around a bunch of US cities, there are plenty of US theaters that already have six or more midnight shows scheduled for Rises, and I've seen some theaters with as many as TEN midnight shows scheduled with 5 weeks to go.

Plus we have notfabio's post about how good Rises tickets are selling at a usual large theater, and how Spiderman absolutely pales in comparison, even though it comes out soon.

I think the floor for Rises OW is around 210M-220M. There is no telling what this movie can do, given what we are witnessing with presales 5 weeks out.

Well to point out for the floor to be 210 million opening day will have to be around 97+ million.

This will be a record breaking opening weekend but Saturday will drag the film down a bit...


With that kind of opening it would be something more like.

98 million
59 million -40%
53 million -10%

210 million.

That would be a huge weekend... That would mean around as many tickets sold as TA on Saturday and ahead of it on Sunday.

However imo I think the bigger the midnights get and the opening day the more freeloaded this will become over the weekend.


Meaning for example I do not expect the same drops over the weekend if for example Friday is like 105 million.

The big warning sign to me is the 29% Saturday drop for TDK in 2008..

I just sense we will get a nasty surprise for Sat for TDKR...

I think that will stop TDKR from going much above 210 or 220 million or more...

An opening day of 100M should be no problem. I think you will see stupendous Saturday and Sunday spillover.

The Dark Knight's Saturday drop was the way it was simply because full WOM had not kicked in until Sunday. That's when we saw the unbelievable Sunday hold going into the mind-blowing Monday hold.

In today's day and age, WOM travels a lot faster. WOM for Rises will kick in right after midnights. Friday evening and night, going into Saturday and Sunday will be complete madness at theaters. I think Rises will "break the rules" so to speak or rewrite the history books when it comes to the OW holds.

How did The Avengers get such an amazing Saturday hold, and such a great Sunday hold, in May? It's because WOM kicked in immediately. Had The Avengers been released in 2008, I guarantee you the Saturday drop would have been bigger, and the weekday drops would have been a bit softer.

that's possible but unlike TA which was widely expected to be as good or somewhat better then IM at best...

TDKR has wide expectations to be one of the best films of recent times...

So imo TA just blew many peoples pants off over how "fun" it was.
I remember hearing a lot of good things about it and me and two friends wanted to see it on Sunday. Turned out to be like 8 of us and even now me any my friends talk about the film and remember the jokes and quote one liners from it.


I think TDKR has everything going for it but those are some huge expectations for any film.

Will be interesting to see.


Its quite obvious that the films of the summer is TA and TDKR... General Audiences really have not cared for much else...
I can see why... TA is just plain fun and TDKR is a sequel to one of the most well liked blockbusters of all time.


Yeah its been great year for big blockbusters but not much else.

We say THG pretty much sell as many tickets as some of the biggest openers ever and it was not a sequel.
TA then really surprised with a good opening day and a ridiculously Sat and an even more Crazy Sunday and a huge 2nd weekend.

Inception had very high expectations, and Nolan blew people away anyways .

Actually, I think a lot of the general audience expects Rises to be at best a match for TDK or worse because of no Joker. That sets up a prime opportunity for Rises to blow people away, and combined with the fact that Nolan has been more secretive with Rises than he was with Inception .

Just imagine seeing that in IMAX . Sucks that I won't be able to see this movie on a REAL IMAX screen, but instead Liemax. It's just won't be the same.

Nice the epic action will help make the movie more epic.

I think they need to raise the action level as there is no Joker backed up by Harvey.

Its more like an all out war between Bane and Batman...

So they have to add in some cool action.

Rewrite history books? Really is BKB writing this?

Rewrite history books? Really is BKB writing this?

Well, the movie got more exposure this weekend -- as if it needed anymore. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. drove this car at Michigan International Speedway in the Sprint Cup series:




By the way, he won the race today.

Awsome! he needs to keep driving it

The hell is this?

''Heard from someone in post on TDKR today. Got the entire plot rundown. Not to throw out a grenade, but I mean this: It sounds AWFUL.''

https://twitter.com/kristapley/status/2 ... 9677764608

100% bullshit

Tapley wouldn't lie about getting the info, though. And he loved BB/TDK/Inception. Sparks curiosity, at least.

There is no such thing as a bad Nolan film.

I can recall similar reactions when it broke that Two Face would die in The Dark Knight. It's all about the context.

Tapley definitely isn't a BSer and he is also a big fan of BB/TDK. By the same token, the actual movie itself can be a lot better than it sounds on paper. That's certainly the case with TDK's ending IMHO. Tapley is a pretty big fan of the comic books, so maybe it's simply a polarizing end of the story.

There is only one outcome that I don't want to see: John Blake (JGL) takes over as Batman. I'm cool with Bruce dying. I'm cool with him faking his death and retiring. I'm cool with him living and being Batman forever (this is probably the most fanboy-friendly outcome). But I wouldn't be happy if there is a replacement. The comic books have jumped the shark in recent years and even have put Dick Grayson in there as Batman. That's really lame IMHO.

In Nolan I trust.

They would have to write a legendary ending for Blake becoming Batman to work, that end 9 times out of 10 would be utter shit.

The idea of Batman dying, either for real or faking, and being the catalyst that finally turns Gotham around for good feels like the most poignant ending Nolan can go for. That's why I think it feels like the ending Nolan is most likely to go for.

JGL becoming Batman is something that could work, I suppose. But the potential for it to fall completely flat is so damn high; the character and his motivations have to be fucking perfectly realized.

I'm hoping it isn't awful. We need another great Batman film to end the trilogy.