But if it didn't have as wide of a midnight release as it should have, some of those people would be forced to watch it at regular showing. How many theaters was TDK in at midnight compared to THG?

In regards to it not beating Hunger Games' first day Fandango sales, AMC IMAX locations did not go on sale until yesterday at 6pm EST. We all know IMAX is the by far the most popular format for advance sales, so when ~120 of those locations aren't on sale the first day (all of which, I might add, sell tickets through Fandango), it's obviously not a valid comparison.

Would TDKR have beaten Hunger Games if AMC hadn't been complete tards with the IMAX negotiations? Maybe, maybe not. But the fact remains is there's already hundreds of sold out show times, including a few 3am showings. This thing is obviously going to do enormous, unbelievable business in the early hours.

BGE

7. The Hunger Games (3/23/12) - $19.735 million (2,565/$7,693)
9. The Dark Knight (7/18/08) - $18.5 million (3,040/$6085)

1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II (7/15/11) - $43.5 million (3,800 theaters/$11,447)

considering Potters PTA, I dont think there was a demand issue in the least, HG made as much as it was going to make at midnight. In TDKs case the theater count is excellent but the gross is a representation of the time, the midnights craze officially started with New Moon in 09.

Hunger Games went on sale sooner to release than TDKR, too.

9 days isn't that big of a difference.

30 Second Samples From "The Dark Knight Rises" Soundtrack (Audio)


http://batman-news.com/2012/06/14/30-se ... ack-audio/

Fandango top 5:

1. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted; 32% of Fandango Sale
2. The Dark Knight Rises; 16% of Fandango Sale
3. Rock of Ages; 11% of Fandango Sale
4. Prometheus; 8% of Fandango Sale
5. Snow White and the Huntsman; 6%

This is huge.

Humongous!

Massive fandango numbers .

That and the huge presales all across North America, incredible!

All of this, and we are still 36 days or roughly 5 weeks away from when the movie hits. This is definitely UNPRECEDENTED ladies and gentlemen. For a film that will have guaranteed big walk-up business, and this many sellouts so early is astonishing! Come OW, theaters will be scrambling to add screens and showtimes to accommodate walk-up business. Sellouts will be massive, and I think we will see absolutely head exploding spillover occur into Monday and the other weekdays.

I think midnight record will be blown away, OW record will easily go down, and even with all this in mind, spillover past the weekend will be unbelievable. Nolan has built up tons of good will from both The Dark Knight AND Inception.

I honestly can't think of any film that the Rises box office run will compare to. Even The Avengers won't be an applicable comparison, because I feel Rises will have more epic legs and holds. I believe we are in truly uncharted waters here.

Also I wish we had a time machine to speed up to July 19th right now, so redbird can be proven wrong and so we can stop seeing his negative nancy posts all the time about the film

Speechless after reading this

Without seeing the movie we cannot guarantee the movie's legs. I am sure OW record is out there for TDKR to break and these massive tracking numbers confirm that OW is in fact going to be broken.

The total will exceed TDK with that humungous opening but I still don't think something like $700m is a given at this time. It could get Batman back to its #3 position with $633m which would still be a great multiplier. Another thing to note is that this will be compared to TDK which I believe would be hard to top even if some folks are convinced some will definitely not like it as much.

summer weekdays, great word of mouth, imax = 800m ftw

too low

Other than inflation nothing has really changed from TDK. $100m bump is good and I highly doubt this will make double the amount of TDK.

I think we have to step back and look at this at a fundamental level. Only important aspect is number of digital screens have exploded since TDK released. Back in TDK time frame there were just 5K digital screens. As of Feb 2012 there were 26K digital and they are scrambling to convert other 14K Screens to digital as well.There is always a limitation on number of shows with film. You could interlock but that still is still like 2-3 shows with a print. With Digital there is no limit.

So TDKR could potentially have 30K digital screens for disposal for midnights. That would translate to around 8M midnight seats. Average ticket prices for midnights is high as there are no concessions plus majority of audience would be teen/adult.

So let us take average price of $9. So potential business is 8M * 9 = 72M. Even if it hits 70% capacity its close to 50M midnights. Not that difficult.

Let us assume TDK gets record 12K screens during rest of the weekend. At an average of 5 shows per day and around 250 seats average we are looking at 15M tickets. If we reduce average ticket price to $8( pre-noon tickets are cheaper at some locations plus we could see more kids/senior citizents). So potential business of $120M per day.


It could potentially do something crazy like

50M Midnights
80M OD ( 2/3 capacity for the day)
80M Sat
70m Sunday

280M OW.

That is almost unlikely as it may not have that much demand. But there is no reason it cant do something like this.

35M Midnights
65M Friday
63M Saturday
57M Sunday

220M OW.

That IMO is the low end at this point.


Some links

http://www.mediasalles.it/training/dgt1 ... lsinki.pdf
(Page 24 shows number of digital screens in North america. It grew from 4576 in Jan 2008 to 5660 in Jan 2009. So I took the number 5K digital screens during TDK release time frame)

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... 1N817M.DTL

^ Very nice analysis Keyser but isn't that assuming complete marketplace will have only TDKR?

For midnights it will have complete marketplace. What else will play at that time. I am assuming "just" 12K screens for the OW. Not easy but definitely possible. I will be surprised by anything less that 11K screens. Potter had 11,100 screens last july and I dont see why WB wont go for a bigger number.Avengers got 11,800 screens.

Hmm yeah achievable but I still don't see it getting $280m OW and that $65m from $35m midnights sounds a little higher. I think it will do $55m-$60m Friday with $35m-$40m midnights. If we actually see $100m OD then I don't think Saturday will be as stronger as last movie.

Sat will see a 40% drop Keyzer...


Not going on the film but the fact is TDK fell a pretty big 30% in 2008...

Sunday and the weekdays is where the epic numbers will continue..

If TDKR pulls a Bourne Ultimatum, it would drop less than TDK on saturday and sunday, such is not impossible, but highly improbable.

New TV spot with some new footage:http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10101510774941726

Might be my favorite yet.

My final predictions for TDKR:

187m OW/490m total.

(my initial predictions: 177m OW/440m total)